Uk General Convective Discussion & Forecasts, 10th October 2012>

[Southern Storm]

Just had an unexpected bright flash of lightning here, with torrential rain which knocked out the Sky signal.

Same here, i wasn't expecting anything like that tonight.

Happy days

[smoggyjester]

have had 2 flashes here in last 15mins

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Thunder and lightening here!!

[ZONE 51]

Here is a screen snap of a recent Met Office radar image:

Squall line with reported thunder and lightning that can be seen on the lightning detectors, also small hail is being reported along the front to, behind the squall line heading east there are heavy showers moving into the SW. Very strong gusts of wind ahead and along the squall.

Edited November 1, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[teeno]

There is quite a bit of hail that's just passed through here now with thunder.

[Coast]

Morning stormies!

Straight into ESTOFEX with something lovely brewing in The Channel:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 01 Nov 2012 06:00 to Fri 02 Nov 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 31 Oct 2012 22:12

Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Two intense troughs will affect Europe. The first actually present over the north Mediterranean will move north-eastwards into eastern Europe, while its trough axis crosses the east Mediterranean. From the north-west, a second intense trough will move into Europe. Its axis will cross France on Thursday.

Discussion

Northern France, the Benelux countries, and surroundings

An intense polar trough will spread into western Europe from the north-west. A trough axis will cross northern France rapidly during noon and tilts negatively across the Benelux countries. Strong QG forcing is expected.

Latest models indicate rather steep lapse rates spreading eastwards with the trough. At low levels, moisture from the Bay of Biscay will advect into northern France and the Benelux countries during the day. Some diurnal heating will likely result in instability in the noon and afternoon hours.

Given the strong vertical wind shear that exceeds 20 m/s DLS and 10 m/s LLS across northern France and the Benelux countries, well organized multicells and mesocyclones are forecast. These rapidly moving storms may be capable of producing severe wind gusts. Additionally, tornadoes are not ruled out especially across the Benelux countries and surroundings. Briefly large hail may also occur with stronger storms.

Main limiting factor is the weak instability and additionally relatively weak low-level convergence along the trough axis. This may lead to weaker showers especially in the southern parts of the area. A low-end level 1 is issued. After sunset, low-level cooling is expected to limit convective potential significantly.

I'd like to think Southern English coasts may just benefit from that with a few storms, but it is going to be touch and go:

A bit of Mid level CAPE around:

Increasing during the afternoon:

Some shear in the Channel:

More rain of course:

and maybe the odd spout sighting?

Lapse rates up:

But is everything still too far South of us?

Some more gusty winds may just touch the Sussex and Kent coast:

But keep your fingers crossed that some people get a clap of thunder and a flash of lightning!

[Coast]

Look out in The Channel, North a bit please!!!

[Nick F]

Valid: 01/11/2012 11:00 - 02/11/2012 06:00

Headline: ... THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

Synopsis

Deep upper trough will shift east across the British Isles and NW Europe over the next 24hrs, becoming increasingly negatively-tilted as it encounters upper ridge across eastern Europe. At the surface, a multi-centred low-pressure system covers the British Isles, with numerous troughs embedded in the circulation.

... IRELAND, S ENGLAND, WALES, NW ENGLAND, SW SCOTLAND ...

Unstable rPm airmass will be in place across the British Isles. 500mb temperatures below -30C will spread eastwards over the British Isles with the upper trough, which will create steep lapse rates - particularly across southern and western coastal areas where we have the influence of relatively warm sea surface temperatures. Heavy showers and a few thunderstorms will spread inland across southern and western coastal counties through the day, bringing a risk of hail and locally torrential downpours. Convection will be enhanced by shortwave troughs in the westerly flow. Vertical shear will be rather weak, so organised severe weather is not anticipated, though there is a risk of localised flooding. Risk of showers and isolated storms may continue near southern and western coasts Thursday night

Also can be found here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[andymusic]

reports of snow coming out of those hefty looking showers crossing Ireland at the moment!

edit:- electrical activity now moving up the Bristol channel!

Edited November 1, 2012 by andymusic

[legritter]

just came back from walk at top of hill ,looking out towards bristol channel there looks some mighty clouds developing in that cold air aloft .would not be surprised to see some hail later after say 4.30pm ish also some tor downpours and gusty winds .would have thought anywhere with some height could see some sleet .off to check radar ,cheers .

[legritter]

Just a quick update ,hvy rain and hail as just arrived quite gusty winds ,could be an interesting evening havent heard any thunder yet ,but back edge of this lot could deliver .

[Karl83]

Looks like the world is about to end here. Really dark now! Very chilly.

[Raidan]

OMG just had a almighty hail shower here everything is white,it was so loud and sounded like we were being pelted by rocks mental stuff,according to a website Bristol Airport are reporting thunder tho I haven't seen or heard anything.

[Chris K]

Looks like more showers moving in from the Bristol Channel to! Local forecast was saying they'd continue through the night and first half of tomorrow, with possible hail and thunder

[Liam J]

Chucking it down here atm with a strong SW'ly wind picked up. Some potent radar returns close to the SE coast which may clip a few of you.

[Raidan]

I wouldn't put money on there being any thunder and I can't work out why people on other forums are saying Bristol looks lively as apart from the hail shower nothing is going on here all quite now and hasn't rained for nearly a hour.

[legritter]

just had one almighty flash ,thunder was way in the distance ,looks like a window of quiet ,but looks like starting up again come 10 pm ish .could be some fun across west wales as time runs on .garden and garden furniture covered in hail .cheers

[ZONE 51]

http://www.skystef.be/obs-satir.htm

(Taken image off, please go to the above website for the lightning/precipitation radar, scroll down page for this)

Edited November 1, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Latest satellite and radar shows a line of precipitation that has developed and become more organised from the SW up through Wales and into the NW.

Above image, Met Office infrared satellite, i have indicated the area of interest with yellow lines, we can expect hail and very heavy downpours from this and a risk of thunder.

A lot of convective activity moving up the Channel, with thunder and lightning off the SE coast/east Channel

Edited November 1, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[richep]

Seen a flash of lightning half an hour ago north of here, bristol channel area

[Marcus_surfer]

lovely cloud to ground lightning flash just then, along with a very deep rumble of thunder,

[ZONE 51]

Recent lightning radar shows where all the action is tonight

in the Channel and one lightning strike over south Wales..

[Coast]

in the Channel and one lightning strike over south Wales..

Lest see if we can get some more today.

Kicking off as usual with ESTOFEX:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Fri 02 Nov 2012 06:00 to Sat 03 Nov 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 01 Nov 2012 20:26

Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A deep cold-core vortex is situated just north of Scotland and dictates the weather over most part of Europe. Conditions become windy for parts of W/C-Europe as a 45 m/s mid-level jet evolves along the S fringe of that vortex. Phasing of the subtropical and polar jet over the Iberian Peninsula also enhances the wind field mainly at mid and upper levels.

A few areas in Europe see some marginal (Slovenia into Hungary) to moderate (E-Bulgaria to the W-Black Sea) MLCAPE with weak (10 m/s over Bulgaria) to strong (20 m/s over Slovenia) 6 km bulk shear. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms affect the highlighted areas S of the Alps until 15Z with scattered to widespread CI over far E Bulgaria and the W-Black Sea at 15Z onwards. No severe risk is anticipated with those storms.

Sub-severe DMC over N/NW-Europe beneath the broad vortex with cold mid-levels occurs all day long.

Beyond 00Z, an approaching moist air mass from the subtropics may be accompanied by an isolated thunderstorm but weak lapse rates preclude any severe risk. Heavy rain spreads ashore but remains below our level risks.

UKMO from 21st OWS having none of it!

Aviation mid-level chart shows the jet roaring straight up The Channel:

Some mid level CAPE all around our shores:

Surface CAPE too:

More rain through the morning, some intense stuff off Kent and Sussex:

Lapse rates are still up:

A few convective gusts, but not as bad as forecast earlier in the week:

In summary, Wales and The Channel coasts for me. We've already had a big hail storm this morning and GFS indicates there may be some thunder later:

[Coast]

Nice sferics in The Channel and along the coast:

[Raidan]

Disappointed nothing else exciting happened lastnight or in the early hours,just boring on and off showers,sky very dark to my west now so more rain on the way,fingers crossed for some thunder but unlikely looks like another channel thing