Uk General Convective Discussion & Forecasts, 10th October 2012>

[Karen Ann]

Wow, finally a decent thunderstorm in Broadstone. Missed most of it sorting 'problems' out with friends but finally. yeeeeheeee

[A.J]

looks like they're starting to show signs of losing intensity as they move into Midlands, but should still provide some heavy rainfall for some parts

[Cloud 10]

New weather warning's for heavy rain issued from the met office just over half an hour ago.

UK weather forecast - Met Office

edit.

Edited October 17, 2012 by Cloud 10

[slinky1989]

God damn it, everything has literally JUST missed Swindon by a whisker. We've had drizzle and are now in a big gap which looks like we'll stay in for the rest of the night. Oh well, hope everyone else is enjoying it!

[Mumbles]

Torrential here in Sherborne for last 15 minutes....dread to think the state of the roads!

[AWD]

Had a torrential downpour earlier.

Caused many a car alarm to go off

[Mark Neal.]

Really heavy rain here, wouldn't be suprised to hear thunder mixed in. Temperature 12.7c. 15mm in last few hours. Not a great evening, glad i'm inside though.

[Dorsetbred]

Wow, finally a decent thunderstorm in Broadstone. Missed most of it sorting 'problems' out with friends but finally. yeeeeheeee

It was a good one too

[Coast]

Today looks to be a continuation of yesterdays convective chances and ESTOFEX have a similar area under consideration:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 18 Oct 2012 06:00 to Fri 19 Oct 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 17 Oct 2012 20:26

Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for north-eastern Spain mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

A sharp and deep trough continues to amplify to the west of the Iberian Peninsula and eventuelly cuts off after the end of the period. A very strong southerly to south-westerly flow will persist through-out the period across most of western Europe and extends into southern Scandinavia. Warm air masses characterized by an elevated mixed layer originating from northern Africa will spread into the west Mediterranean and southern France, whereas cool and moist air masses advect into the Bay of Biscay and western Iberia behind a cold front. Further east, an extensive high pressure region builds across Central Europe.

I think the majority of dedicated UK sites have gone on holiday for the Winter, so here are a few of the usual sources of additional information for today:

Ireland firmly in the target sights!

Deep down Southern Ireland particularly:

So to sum up, look like its mostly in the Irish Sea again today and coastal areas bordering it:

[TonyH]

In contrast to yesterdays very fast moving popcorn cells. today is proving wetter as we sit under a Carmarthen Bay streamer, which has given 4mm in the past hour with no sign of ending. It is very narrow and extends from mid Wales way out into the Bristol Channel towards Cornwall. Due to its narrowness places 5 miles east and west of it are remaining dry.

[TonyH]

We are on the eastern edge of it presently with blue skies a few miles east seen on webcam. Still heavy showers.

[TonyH]

Streamer now edged west and pleasantly sunny.

[ZONE 51]

Keeping a watch on the Southeast through Friday, the potential i think for something thundery.

Edited October 19, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Coast]

Keeping a watch on the Southeast through Friday, the potential i think for something thundery.

I'm not so sure ESS, seems to be calming down convection wise?

[ZONE 51]

I had said last night"Keeping a watch on the Southeast through Friday, the potential i think for something thundery."

I'm not so sure ESS, seems to be calming down convection wise?

You are right there Coast! not much about and nothing on the strike detectors.

That purple blob on this radar over the Channel early hours of the morning was thundery but missed us, and like you say calming down, and it has.

Edited October 19, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[The watcher]

What are we looking at in regards to the colder spell this week convection wise. Do you think there will be a risk of some hail showers?

[ZONE 51]

Yes, any convective wintry showers are likely to contain hail and ice.

[Coast]

What are we looking at in regards to the colder spell this week convection wise. Do you think there will be a risk of some hail showers?

Maybe Sunday into Monday:

But better to look here on Friday as things become clearer:

http://ows.public.sembach.af.mil/index.cfm?section=afwageps

[Coast]

Just been alerted to some thunder over Suffolk by Rybris Ponce so I better stick some indicators up here fast!!

Slipped up here as ESTOFEX clearly have it marked:

SYNOPSIS

An extensive branch of the polar vortex affects all of Europe. A baroclinic zone separates cold and dry air to its north from a moist and unstable air to its south. Numerous vortices along that boundary move slowly to the NE.

Not, however, the 21st OWS:

A tiny bit of MLCAPE around through the day, but obviously enough with other factors, to ignite a spark down the Eastern side:

Looks like its the surface CAPE that may be the fuel:

Impressive Lapse rates off East Anglia, Essex, Kent and into The Channel;

Some convective wind gusting in, windchill is already in to minus figures here:

In simple terms for today:

[Ben Sainsbury]

What's that by the far south east?

[Sprites]

Two rumbles of thunder here 13.00 13.05 and small hail.

[virtualsphere]

This from the NW Extra suite, the hi-res NMM..

Vicious squall line on Halloween, big temperature variations in and behind it.. anyone for trick or treating?

This was posted by Isolated Frost in the MOD thread, thought it was worth reposting here. Could be worth keeping an eye out to see if this squall line develops as the NMM shows.

[Coast]

Possibly something early on the 1st out in The Channel?

[Liam J]

The NMM is painting a very colourful picture for halloween! Gusty winds and flash flooding if things develop as shown here when the cold font moves in and heads south and eastwards, an interesting weather day coming up!?

Edited October 30, 2012 by Liam J

[Coast]

Looks like a busy few days along the South coast at the latter end of this week:

More rain!

Huge lapse rates:

Lots shear and potential in France too: