Uk General Convective Discussion & Forecasts, 10th October 2012>

[ardsar]

Afternoon all. Had 20mm + of rain so far today. Main rain band has now cleared and now turned showery. There have been some strikes out over the channel but nothing close yet. Showers are getting beefy so let's hope lol.

[Nick F]

Storm forecast for tonight into Sat morning:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[chionomaniac]

Storm forecast for tonight into Sat morning:

http://www.netweathe...onvective;sess=

Excellent, thanks Nick. Some bright echos already showing in the channel.

[Coast]

Storm forecast for tonight into Sat morning:

http://www.netweathe...onvective;sess=

ESTOFEX have no forecast yet today and SkyWarn still have yesterday's in force. Just a couple of indicators from me this morning.

Just a bit off the coast according to 21st OWS:

All over us if you go with mid-level aviation weather:

Creeping up through The Channel and to the West today generally says GFS overview:

[IanR]

Sure I heard a rumble very early this morning , but I was half asleep, heard nothing after but it was something that woke me .

Edited December 15, 2012 by IanR

[Bluebreezer54]

Some lively looking showers showing up on the radar heading across the South East and I've just read a report of thunder in Beaconsfield, South Buckinghamshire.

[Supacell]

Looks like a decent chance of some convective activity from about 12noon today through the evening and into the night across western and southern coastal areas (maybe coming a little inland too). Areas such as SW Wales and the SW could be in a particularly good place later on today. If I had lots of money and loads of time I would be heading towards Cornwall, Devon or Pembrokeshire later on.

Estofex forecast out and has the 50% lightning risk area just touching these coastlines.

Unfortunately my lightning wizard charts have not changed since the 30th October and so can't see or use any of them. Would be helpful to know if anyone else is having this problem or is something to do with me?

GFS 00z shows a decent amount of CAPE out to the coasts of the South and West.

Nothing for my area, but then I don't expect thunderstorms in the Midlands in December.

[Coast]

Looking out in The Channel there are some big Cu's forming but I'm not sure they will bring anything inland. ESTOFEX showing:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sun 16 Dec 2012 06:00 to Mon 17 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sun 16 Dec 2012 05:34

Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for western France mainly for a tornado chance and marginally severe convective wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A very large depression with its center NW of Ireland covers much of the western half of Europe. With a strong westerly flow unstable airmass is transported onto the shores of the British Isles and France. At the time of writing only convection south of about 48°N is electrically active and occurs under the jet stream. The airmass is not so cold to have a lack of moisture content, in fact with 6-8 g/kg there is ample fuel for electrified cells. This will continue into most of the day with a wave reaching France around noon, probably with enhanced convective activity during the afternoon. Wind profiles will have 15-25 m/s 0-6 km shear, and over land more than 10 m/s 0-1 km shear. This may induce some low-topped mini supercells or shortlived mesocyclones which could produce a tornado. Low level flow decreases and convective wind gusts over 25 m/s are becoming less likely

No forecasts from SKyWarn, UKASF or TORRO so far, here are some charts to ponder:

Small amounts of MLCAPE offshore:

Convergence:

Rain stays mainly the other side of the water, thank goodness:

Lapse rates right across the UK:

Lots of tornado chances down to the South of us:

Maybe something electrical later? (no, not my outside Xmas lights!!)

[ardsar]

Thanks for the update as usual Coast. Looking at nexstorm, there is a lot of sferics out there, all just a bit too far out. Fingers crossed for later. Had some beefy showers yesterday pm with hail but no thunder.

Edited December 16, 2012 by ardsar

[Convective]

Wow, plenty of sferics out there at the moment. BBC did have thunderstorm forecast for here from 16:00-22:00! But they have downgraded to heavy rain..

[swebby]

Shower system has just passed through exeter (11.30-12.00) with some rumbles and striking looking mammatus on its rear edge.

S

[Evening thunder]

Didn't expect that! torrential hail and rain for a bit with a bright flash followed 1-2 seconds later by a very loud rumble! typically i was not looking out my window but my mum saw a pretty spectacular CG bolt apparently. Another flash to the east a bit later.

6.2mm fell out of that.

(in East Devon about 10 miles east of Exeter at the moment)

Edited December 16, 2012 by Stormmad26

[Supacell]

A lot of sferics in the channel atm. Met office are forecasting showers to become more widespread from dusk with a risk of hail and thunder. Not confident of much inland from the coasts though.

[kerensa]

hi all, thunder here in somerset, the showers have started

[Wilxy]

Just had a heavy shower with hail mixed in, and now gone very dark to are west with the next shower approaching.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Can confirm some heavy rain which lasted 5-10 minutes but nothing thrilling; we must wait and see...

[A.J]

A few thunderstorms have broken out in southern most counties, Southampton & surrounding areas have recently had a lively line of cells pass over giving some torrential rain, hail, as well as thunder & lightning. This line of showers/storms are drifting ENE towards Surrey & the London area. Another line of active cells are out in the English Channel heading towards Sussex & Kent......with further heavy showers developing out in the South West approaches

[Convective]

Going up! Can see anvils popping up now from the trough moving close towards me

[robt]

Reports of Thunder in NW London from my mum (who is currently in a hotel in Wembley).

[nanu]

Reports of Thunder in NW London from my mum (who is currently in a hotel in Wembley).

can confirm that, a few flash and bangs turning up here now.

[Cakie]

Didn't expect that! torrential hail and rain for a bit with a bright flash followed 1-2 seconds later by a very loud rumble! typically i was not looking out my window but my mum saw a pretty spectacular CG bolt apparently. Another flash to the east a bit later.

6.2mm fell out of that.

(in East Devon about 10 miles east of Exeter at the moment)

I missed it as was south of Exeter but it went really dark where we were. Got home to what looked like snow on the cars but was infact hail

[Robbie Garrett]

One more thunder storm for me today. What a year!

[Coast]

Glad to hear some of you caught a rumble, the convective stuff stayed out at Sea over France for me, this was yesterday lunchtime:

Still managed to get an awful lot more rain, just nothing electrical to go with it.

[Coast]

ESTOFEX have a forecast out for today:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 17 Dec 2012 06:00 to Tue 18 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sun 16 Dec 2012 22:55

Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

A level 1 was issued for W France mainly for isolated severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Low geopotential heights are present in most parts of western and S-central Europe and a strong WNWerly jet stream stretches from W France to W Turkey. Most of the convection will occur in the vicinity of the upper low centers over the British Isles and over the Tyrrhenian and Adriatic Sea. Due to low LCL heights, strong (locally > 15 m/s) 0-1 km shear, augmented SRH and approx. 20 m/s background flow at 850 hPa, both tornadoes and severe wind gusts may occur in the coastal regions of W France.

In short, anywhere to the South may have a slight chance:

Or even the Welsh coast:

[Ben Sainsbury]

Very surprised with the lack of reports certainly been a few storm around. Caught a short sharp shower with hail between 1015-1045ish but nothing heard. But can say some beautiful Cb's around.