Grim Climate Change Prediction For Oz Skiers

[Summer Sun]

Nearly two-thirds of the snow in Australia's popular ski resorts may have disappeared by 2020, according to climate change research.

The Australian ski industry is worth around £700m a year, but scientists warn skiers and snowboarders may be forced to go abroad for the snow in years to come.

Griffith University associate professor Catherine Pickering believes the alpine region is one of the country's most threatened areas from climate change.

"We've predicted by 2020 to lose something like 60% of the snow cover of the Australian Alps," she said.

"Unfortunately because our current emissions and our current rises in temperatures are at the high end of the predictions, it's definitely coming to us sooner and faster."

Some veteran Australian skiers are already noticing changes to snow conditions.

Brian Kairns has skied at the Mount Buller resort, about a three-hour drive from Melbourne, for almost 30 years.

He told Sky News: "The first time I started skiing you could ski right down here and it was probably three or four inches of powder right down the main run.

"These days you come down and you can injure yourself where it's all patchy and washed out."

Around 800,000 people visit Australia's slopes every year to enjoy winter sports.

Ironically, this season has been one of the best for snow in years but such good conditions are becoming the exception.

According to professor Pickering's research snow cover is already declining in Australia's alpine regions, and the trend is expected to continue.

The average snow cover at Spencer's Creek in the Snowy Mountains, the highest altitude snow course in Australia, has declined by 30% overall, and 40% in spring, over the last 50 years.

The resorts though are fighting back. At Mount Buller they began making snow in 1970. The resort now has some of the world's most advanced snow-making machines.

With a high level water storage reservoir, pump station and central air compressor, pipelines attached to snow machines mean the resort can produce snow just when it is needed.

Buller Ski Lifts general manager Laurie Blampied accepts climate change is happening in Australia's mountains but refutes suggestions the end is in sight for skiing Down Under.

"Snow making is no doubt an adaptive strategy to climate change and all the leading resorts in the world are making snow," he said.

"We do that for a variety of reasons. We do that to make sure we open a little bit earlier, to make sure we can close later, but more importantly to provide a quality product for our guests while they are here during the peak seasons."

The Australian ski industry is far from being on its last legs. But rather than getting snow blindness, resorts are trying to adapt as best as they can to an uncertain future.

http://news.sky.com/story/997134/grim-climate-change-prediction-for-oz-skiers

[mike Meehan]

Strewth, they'll have to catch a plane to Kiwiland for their skiing.

[Kiwi]

Strewth, they'll have to catch a plane to Kiwiland for their skiing.

and they'll be made very welcome (subject to the appropriate criminal record checks!)

[laserguy]

Poor mites! They've only themselves to blame; if they'd legged it to the resorts instead of those nasty CO2-belching cars,maybe they'd have something left to ski on.

[Methuselah]

It sounds a bit like the standard AGW-inspired propaganda, to me?

[UV-RAY]

It sounds a bit like the standard AGW-inspired propaganda, to me?

Stories like this are tiresome now, it's almost like certain people have an agenda. By the same token those who post of impending ice ages are also tiresome and agenda driven.

[jethro]

I'm afraid I take all these predictions with a very large pinch of salt - they're all absolutely right, until the next study shows them to be wrong. Anyone remember the big news stories about how snow will become a thing of the past, our children will no longer be able to have the joy of building a snowman? What followed were the snowiest and coldest winters we've had in years.

[BornFromTheVoid]

So, there is already a trend for declining snow cover in an area that's frequently marginal for snow fall. We're still emitting more and more CO2, and someone has essentially predicted that they will lose even more snow cover in future years, following the trend already in place... I don't think you need any advanced climate science education to see where the reasoning is with that.

But of course, any study that agrees with the consensus is going to draw fire from a large portion of the sceptics, no matter what the content.

[UV-RAY]

So, there is already a trend for declining snow cover in an area that's frequently marginal for snow fall. We're still emitting more and more CO2, and someone has essentially predicted that they will lose even more snow cover in future years, following the trend already in place... I don't think you need any advanced climate science education to see where the reasoning is with that.

But of course, any study that agrees with the consensus is going to draw fire from a large portion of the sceptics, no matter what the content.

Its a case of watch this space, but I for one seriously doubt the findings of this study. As Jethro stated how many of these studies have been false dawns

[BornFromTheVoid]

Its a case of watch this space, but I for one seriously doubt the findings of this study. As Jethro stated how many of these studies have been false dawns

It seems like little more than a common sense prediction to me.

I'm pretty sure the winter sports industry does better of regular predictable snowfall than rare snow events.

Besides one off cold/snow events say nothing about the long term trend, which for the UK, is still for reduced snow cover.

Saying that, perhaps when the ozone hole recovers and and Antarctica begins to be affected by warming more, the circumpolar westerlies will weaken allowing for more cold outbreaks in the southern hemisphere, as has happened here in recent years. But until then, I think less snow is a rather sensible, though boring, prediction

[stewfox]

It seems like little more than a common sense prediction to me.

I'm pretty sure the winter sports industry does better of regular predictable snowfall than rare snow events.

Besides one off cold/snow events say nothing about the long term trend, which for the UK, is still for reduced snow cover.

Saying that, perhaps when the ozone hole recovers and and Antarctica begins to be affected by warming more, the circumpolar westerlies will weaken allowing for more cold outbreaks in the southern hemisphere, as has happened here in recent years. But until then, I think less snow is a rather sensible, though boring, prediction

The problem with these predictions is they can be a bit of fun like playing the lotto but can have a serious impact the people who take the matter more seriously e.g the ski industry.

Very few predictions come true and as you say they may get more snow. One hell of a lot of cold records broken down there this year.

[Interitus]

Why the automatic skepticism and wearied refutation when ample evidence shows that snow cover in this marginal area has and is declining?

[Methuselah]

Its a case of watch this space, but I for one seriously doubt the findings of this study. As Jethro stated how many of these studies have been false dawns

And I agree...Indeed, due to Jet Stream meanders, many places may end-up with heavier, although perhaps less frequent snowfalls...It's all probability and possibility, nothing (in terms of the occurrence of individual weather events) will ever be certain?

It's a shame that scientific language routinely loses it's probabilistic nature, once it's been through the hands of politicians and media moguls...

[Styx]

Peak snow depths measured at Spencers Creek ( 1830m ), Australian Alps over the last 50+ years.

http://en.wikipedia....Snow_Depths.png

(This graph is not an indication of prolonged snow cover - but it is useful in showing conditions present for accumulation - but the above article is correct in its reference to an early melt in most years, and snow cover at lower elevations becoming very irregular where artififical snow making is now the primer ).

Where I live, low level snow events used to be a common feature of the climate. Not any more!

http://www.tasfieldn...s_Snowfalls.pdf

Edited October 17, 2012 by Styx

[laserguy]

Where I live, low level snow events used to be a common feature of the climate. Not any more!

Where I live, the snow has been returning in recent years. Simultaneously,the hot and dry spells of summer have dwindled away into non-existance, thank gawd.

[cyclonic happiness]

They said this 15 years ago, but the snow there just keeps on getting deeper, and deeper and deeper..................etc