Winter 2012/13 Pt 4... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes...

[Ladyofthestorm]

True, but Altnaharra is notorious for low temperatures, it lies in a lag / hollow.

and to tthe South is the mass of Ben Klibreck which produces a shadow all day long permitting temps to stay low all day and drop away at night...

Achnasheen is another places that favours very low temps....

are you ready for a cold balst Rab?

[Cheese Rice]

Potential high of just 3.c next Sunday on the BBC five day extended forecast for Leeds.

What I like to see

Edited October 20, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[feb1991blizzard]

I reckon you would do very well for cold and snow in your location, it's a double whammy - your high up and are in a valley, so if we got the perfect set up you could get some extreme snow totals and low temps and as a result it would be difficult to get out of the valley.

Only been here 2 years but apparently not much happened around here in terms of movement, for a great portion of the 09 /10 winter, my first winter here (10/11) when we got pasted for a 6 in late November, a massive tractor went up and down for the whole 2 and a half hours or so of stonkingly heavy snow, i think it was all planed by farmers around here that they were not going to suffer 2 years running as its a well known fact around here that Oldham MBC do not really do a lot to help when it comes to keeping roads open around here, i thought to myself 'Spoilsport!' i was hoping to sit there and just watch the chaos unfold!!! The thing is there is only 3 or 4 ways out of this valley, and they all involve an elevation rise of around 4 or 5 hundres feet!!!

[ZONE 51]

(from the MOD thread)

Nearly got a letter H out of the PV there!

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1

[feb1991blizzard]

Please dont take this post the wrong way people, i.e - as a winters over post.

I have a slight concern that some, but not all of the CFS runs are showing the blocking continuing for another 3-4 weeks but then a very zonal winter after that, i hope that this theory is completely wrong but is that because the stratosphere has not cooled fully yet, but when it does, it is going to be below average, thus the signal for a strong jet begins at the start of winter proper and the model is picking up on that signal.

[feb1991blizzard]

Potential high of just 3.c next Sunday on the BBC five day extended forecast for Leeds.

What I like to see

Yes and some impressive minus figures as well, such a massive range though, you would have thought they could narrow it down a bit more than that, ok its 10 days but it is not 10 weeks

[Barry12]

Yes and some impressive minus figures as well, such a massive range though, you would have thought they could narrow it down a bit more than that, ok its 10 days but it is not 10 weeks

yeah some of the ranges are laughable.

[Barry12]

i saw one once with a range of 17C

Potential high of just 3.c next Sunday on the BBC five day extended forecast for Leeds.

What I like to see

where? all i see is lows of 5C

[fUnKy]

Meteorology is indeed fascinating, the weather effects nearly everything that we do. What we wear, how our bodies react to it and many other aspects, great stuff.

Always been fascinated but it's not one of those things that jumps out at you as a career. I guess it is no surprise, considering my attraction to the weather, after starting my degree with visions of sky scrapers in the middle east I am now more following the route of flood defences in the fens. Hopefully by next year I will know what all these models and terms etc etc mean!

[NorthernRab]

and to tthe South is the mass of Ben Klibreck which produces a shadow all day long permitting temps to stay low all day and drop away at night...

Achnasheen is another places that favours very low temps....

are you ready for a cold balst Rab?

I am indeed - Inverness has been doing very well for its favourite nische weather of freezing fog recently, winter on its way!

[The watcher]

Please dont take this post the wrong way people, i.e - as a winters over post.

I have a slight concern that some, but not all of the CFS runs are showing the blocking continuing for another 3-4 weeks but then a very zonal winter after that, i hope that this theory is completely wrong but is that because the stratosphere has not cooled fully yet, but when it does, it is going to be below average, thus the signal for a strong jet begins at the start of winter proper and the model is picking up on that signal.

You answered the question yourself by saying "some but not all". Not long ago the CFS was showing the opposite for winter and so it can and probably will change again. I'm not too sure either if the CFS uses Strat data in its forecast...does it?

[Barry12]

I am indeed - Inverness has been doing very well for its favourite nische weather of freezing fog recently, winter on its way!

Don't you mean the highest minimum in your signature?

[feb1991blizzard]

You answered the question yourself by saying "some but not all". Not long ago the CFS was showing the opposite for winter and so it can and probably will change again. I'm not too sure either if the CFS uses Strat data in its forecast...does it?

Hopefully it will change, not sure on the CFS Grid height / resolution TBH

[feb1991blizzard]

i saw one once with a range of 17C

where? all i see is lows of 5C

-2c lowest on here for leeds.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2644688

[Cheese Rice]

i saw one once with a range of 17C

where? all i see is lows of 5C

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ls16/extended

Sunday 28th for LS16 mind so the forecast factors in the height above sea level.

[Barry12]

-2c lowest on here for leeds.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2644688

ahh, thought you meant lowest maximum

http://www.bbc.co.uk...r/ls16/extended

Sunday 28th for LS16 mind so the forecast factors in the height above sea level.

oh I see it now, could be 13C though too

Edited October 20, 2012 by Barry95

[NorthernRab]

Don't you mean the highest minimum in your signature?

Sorry, yes, absolute zero does get a bit boring at times though!

Edited October 20, 2012 by NorthernRab

[NorthernRab]

And so do i, i live in a valley with the river flowing literlly on my doorstep!!!!!

But then not in the Highlands with a more southerly location and more daylight...which in fairness goes back to your original point!

[misha]

OK, thought I would give a Winter forecast based on absolute variables, peerless models and CFS (Changes F'n Scenario), possible stratospheric warming and cooling (very cool so it is), wave events (hello!), glacier points, and snow in the Northern Hemisphere, or Chionio if you prefer. (when the snow heads to Greek I believe) - In summary, this Winter is gonna be coldish, with occasioanal warmish interludes and snow to low levels occasionally, overall it will be 0.000000000001C below average.

And I'm sorry - my forecast is as good as anyones lol!

Edited October 20, 2012 by misha

[ZONE 51]

Please dont take this post the wrong way people, i.e - as a winters over post.

I have a slight concern that some, but not all of the CFS runs are showing the blocking continuing for another 3-4 weeks but then a very zonal winter after that, i hope that this theory is completely wrong but is that because the stratosphere has not cooled fully yet, but when it does, it is going to be below average, thus the signal for a strong jet begins at the start of winter proper and the model is picking up on that signal.

I'm taking it 3 days at a time, as things can change suddenly, some very unusual stuff going on with the setup/models/signals.... i expect some surprises.

Surprise-

to strike or occur to with a sudden feeling of wonder or astonishment, as through unexpectedness

Edited October 21, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[bluearmy]

thats 10 mins of your life you'll never get back chio !!

[Aaron]

http://www.bbc.co.uk...r/ls16/extended

Sunday 28th for LS16 mind so the forecast factors in the height above sea level.

High could be 4C in LS15 so yes the centre of Leeds will obviously be warmer..

[Liam J]

A few tweets from Matt Hugo on Twitter this morning -

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81

The drop in temps to below avg may have longer term repercussions with the potential development of the polar vortex to bring wet/windy wx.

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81

Temperatures within the stratosphere across polar regions have, for the first time, dropped below climate averages - http://ds.data.jma.g...f/pole30_nh.gif (highlighted yesterday)

Edited October 21, 2012 by Liam J

[Yozzer]

Please dont take this post the wrong way people, i.e - as a winters over post.

I have a slight concern that some, but not all of the CFS runs are showing the blocking continuing for another 3-4 weeks but then a very zonal winter after that, i hope that this theory is completely wrong but is that because the stratosphere has not cooled fully yet, but when it does, it is going to be below average, thus the signal for a strong jet begins at the start of winter proper and the model is picking up on that signal.

Ah yes - shall I be first to quote the old adage??? OK then, but it'll get some people right hot under the collar!!!

"Ice in November to bear a duck, rest of the winter will be slush and blah, blah, blah, blah, etc."

[bluearmy]

any of you expecting the kind of charts we currently see and assiciated HLB to continue unabated through nov and the winter months are going to be disappointed. It just doesn't happen - ever. We are bound to have some zonality in November. We just want to see indications of something colder coming back again, be it via telecons, strat influences or, if within a fortnight, fi ens output. So signs that we may be seeing some less positive messages from the strat should be tempered for the time being. enjoy the unseasonal spell beginning later this week and watch the way the onset of zonality eventually breaks the pattern down. It might be valuable info for later in the winter.