Jump to content
Winter
Local
Radar
Snow?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion 12z 18/10/2012


phil nw.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
Posted

I think this run from GFS is further west. Or are my eyes just going funny due to stareing at so much output?

Im thinking the same thing compared to last run which was 06z or are my eyes funny too

  • Replies 878
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted

Don't forget you can easily switch between the current and previous runs on the chart viewer: (click the prev run button to view the previous run - one good option is to open the same chart types next to eachother and then have one on the previous run and one on the current one)

http://www.netweathe...tion=nwdc;sess=

post-2-0-70332600-1350921830_thumb.png

Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER
Posted · Hidden by phil nw., October 22, 2012 - No reason given
Hidden by phil nw., October 22, 2012 - No reason given

I think this run from GFS is further west. Or are my eyes just going funny due to stareing at so much output?

What's further west, the mild air, the cold air, the block or Ireland?

Posted
  • Location: Moortown/shadwell-145m-leeds.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and hot sunny weather.
  • Location: Moortown/shadwell-145m-leeds.
Posted · Hidden by phil nw., October 22, 2012 - No reason given
Hidden by phil nw., October 22, 2012 - No reason given

Or Ireland lol

Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
Posted · Hidden by phil nw., October 22, 2012 - sorry but op ot.
Hidden by phil nw., October 22, 2012 - sorry but op ot.

What's further west, the mild air, the cold air, the block or Ireland?

If one is further West, all 3 are. But Ireland.....we are still here in our usual spot. cray.gif

Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER
Posted

The -5c 850mb isothem is still progged to invade most of the UK on Friday..

Rtavn962.png

But then gets promply shoved away early on Saturday.

Rtavn1142.png

Thereafter we are looking for a quick reload to bring colder conditions again next week, but the LP progged to be close to Iceland later on Sunday may well delay this southward progression, at least according to GFS.

Rtavn1501.png

Cold air struggling to come south, even into next Tuesday IF this is correct.

Rtavn1801.png

Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe
Posted

The destination of the cold shot is still in the balance. It won't be until wed morning before we get a firm grasp of how the northerly behaves and what is likely to happen thereafter. Prognosis is still looking very good for some frostiness and high level snow. But can we hold on to it for a sustained period? This is going to be an interesting few days.

Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire
Posted · Hidden by phil nw., October 22, 2012 - No reason given
Hidden by phil nw., October 22, 2012 - No reason given

Interesting that we haven't seen anything of Mr Murr since last night, wonder how long it'll be before we see him posting again....

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands (170m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands (170m asl)
Posted · Hidden by phil nw., October 22, 2012 - No reason given
Hidden by phil nw., October 22, 2012 - No reason given

Interesting that we haven't seen anything of Mr Murr since last night, wonder how long it'll be before we see him posting again....

Which could mean he's at work lol

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Well between the UKMO and the GFS 12z, this 'cold spell', that looked oh so promising, seems to have been reduced to a 24 hour period with uppers at or slightly below -5. By 6am Sat the situation looks like this...

h850t850eu.png

Into FI....this is the sort of pattern we'll enter as we progress through November....

npsh500.png

This would be depressing in Jan!

h500slp.png

Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
Posted

I have never seen such an accurate run........its beautifully spot on

BFTP

How can any run be said to be accurate or spot on until judged after the event?

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

Well between the UKMO and the GFS 12z, this 'cold spell', that looked oh so promising, seems to have been reduced to a 24 hour period with uppers at or slightly below -5. By 6am Sat the situation looks like this...

h850t850eu.png

Oh well, at least the cold is going somewhere it is actually useful, Scandi should see widespread snow, not possible here.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted

We have had to delete some off topic contributions.

Let`s keep to model discussions please.

Thanks all.smile.png

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

I am not going to fall into the trap of believing individual op runs, this is the problem with following every run religiously, it's a recipe for disaster. I still don't think the models have got a good handle on the end of the week and a lot can still change for the better. BBC weather still say we are in for an arctic blast and not a watered down nw'ly.

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx.bsky.social
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx.bsky.social
Posted

In regards to the track of that LP over US/Canada and the impact on Greenland heights.

GFS quicker and UKMO slower with the evolution deepening the Low. GEM closer to the GFS solution and perhaps a trend towards GFS with this run.

GFS / UKMO / GEM

post-7292-0-35935400-1350923948_thumb.pn post-7292-0-93485000-1350923960_thumb.gipost-7292-0-45178400-1350924739_thumb.pn

This is where the CPC model discussion comes in useful as to which solution is favoured, speaking of CPC pages Tropical Depression18 is worth a watch on the GFS later frames. If the trend for later regarding a blocked outlook to more zonal conditions this could end up a lively visitor.

Posted
  • Location: Hastings, East Sussex
  • Location: Hastings, East Sussex
Posted

It is all down the pesky High that is now expected to sit below Greenland. The trend for this over the last few runs is for it to sink further south and maybe slightly east. Pushing the bulk of the artic surge into the rest of euorpe.

It is also beginning to trend towards breaking apart or at least getting pushed around later on which is not so good! I would rather see this high keeps its shape than get an amazing blast of cold weather however I think the two are linked anyways :D

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

I am not going to fall into the trap of believing individual op runs, this is the problem with following every run religiously, it's a recipe for disaster. I still don't think the models have got a good handle on the end of the week and a lot can still change for the better. BBC weather still say we are in for an arctic blast and not a watered down nw'ly.

The MetOffice will start to reflect the most recent output in due course. The UKMO model has fallen in line with the GFS and so has the ECM on its 00z run.

Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, Manchester, 93m / 305 feet asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Variety, Warm Sunny days, low temperatures some snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, Manchester, 93m / 305 feet asl.
Posted

The absence of Steve Murr and a couple of others reflects the slightly poorer model output today. But let's face it it is only October

- we still have a considerable amount of time smile.png so no need for people to be downbeat or induce wristslashing. wink.png

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

For me a bit of sleet at the weekend would have been a bonus. What's most concerning is the flip back to a more zonal outlook with highs to our south and an organised PV. Seasoned model watchers will know that this pattern can last for weeks or even months.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The MetOffice will start to reflect the most recent output in due course. The UKMO model has fallen in line with the GFS and so has the ECM on its 00z run.

I will reserve judgement until the 00z runs, just some small adjustments and we still have a shot, i'm not convinced it will just be a wishy washy nw'ly.

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

UKMO 850hpa

UW72-7.GIF?22-18

UKMO is now falling into line with GFS and ECM by downgrading this cold snap to just a few days max

UW120-21.GIF?22-18

Pressure starts to rise as early as Sunday

UW144-21.GIF?22-18

However cold fans don't give up the met office state the following

Some more persistent rain is possible for a time later on in the first weekend (this coming weekend) but the relatively cold and unsettled conditions will return thereafter, with sometimes prolonged wintry showers interspersed with drier and brighter periods

GFS shows another cold burst next week

Rtavn1921.png

Rtavn2161.png

Pressure then doesn't rise to bonfire night which is well out in FI

Rtavn3361.png

Cold fans don't give up there will be many up's and down's over the coming day's

Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe
Posted

Those lows always chop and change from run to run. It was only a few days ago that the LP in the Atlantic was progged to throw off a shortwave and scupper the entire prospect of a cold snap.

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

What's most concerning is the flip back to a more zonal outlook with highs to our south and an organised PV. Seasoned model watchers will know that this pattern can last for weeks or even months.

Indeed it can. I don't agree that it's impossible for synoptics to be good from now throughout winter like some have suggested. The general pattern could remain decent from a hemispheric perspective without showing the familiar signs of an organised PV and roaring jet.

For example, Nov 2009 was mild and wild for UK BUT there were signs the atmosphere was primed for blocking to develop...

Rrea00120091122.gif

No deep purples around Greenland.

Currently, if the PV fires up, with little warming of the strat forecast, I fear later November through December could be wet and mild! Matt Hugo has alluded to this over in the strat thread.

Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, Manchester, 93m / 305 feet asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Variety, Warm Sunny days, low temperatures some snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, Manchester, 93m / 305 feet asl.
Posted · Hidden by phil nw., October 22, 2012 - No reason given
Hidden by phil nw., October 22, 2012 - No reason given

For me a bit of sleet at the weekend would have been a bonus. What's most concerning is the flip back to a more zonal outlook with highs to our south and an organised PV. Seasoned model watchers will know that this pattern can last for weeks or even months.

I remember back in late Oct 2010 early Nov 2010 people in here throwing strops and being downbeat about prospects before Winter had even begun! but look what happened at the end of Nov - a good 90% of people in here did not see that coming until a week or so earlier.

Posted
  • Location: consett co durham
  • Location: consett co durham
Posted · Hidden by phil nw., October 22, 2012 - No reason given
Hidden by phil nw., October 22, 2012 - No reason given

quite a large percentage did though,so not sure where you get the 90% from.some of us just sat back in awe and watched things unfold.

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...