Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[chionomaniac]

you are not allowed to say anything on this site with these mods about, dear me, i am just a bit frustrated thats all, where else am i supposed to air annoyance, show me then i will post there

and yes its only october but we said that last year didn;t we

We did have a moaning thread the last few seasons, SE which the type of posts expressing frustrations could be placed.

However, I never would have thought that we would need one with over a month still left before winter starts based on concerns of a FI model output showing an Azores high .

Surely it is better to keep this thread on topic for what it is meant for?

[jethro]

I know waiting for snow, or the slightest hint that we may have a chance of some this winter is frustrating but taking out that frustration on others won't help. Let's not descend into a sniping frenzy whilst we're all waiting for 1963 part two.

[Ice Day]

Jesus wept; it's still October and the toys are already coming out of the pram. Every winter has its high's and low's, sometimes the models look crap and sudden upgrades occur and visa versa. If we're lucky, we'll get two or three weeks of cold and snowy weather; the rest will be mostly unspectacular, same as any other year. Lastly, having a pop at the mods is totally unnecessary in my humble opinion!

[Eskimo]

Let me put this straight...

For a few weeks now I have monitored this thread and have seen the various characteristics within it and there is no denying that it is happening.

If someone posts something that shows a ten foot blizzard and crippling sub-zero temps for arguments sake then no one says anything about, the mods don't get involved and the post becomes gold starred and everyone is happy. If someone has an opinion on an azores high which COULD scupper winter then they are automatically off topic because apparently it's still a month away, but isn't that 10 foot blizzard still in the same timeframe?

So tell me one thing, how is going into Winter charts off topic when winter hasn't even started anyway? Should this thread then be closed until December 1st?

Edited October 30, 2012 by PerfectStorm

[gottolovethisweather]

ok thanks, i hate it when i see those greenlandhigh/ midatlantic ridges topple over us time and time again, i know its still to early for snow esp for me but the same old synoptics end up winning out more often than not

saying that though GFS 18z is not that mild

That is a valid point and my post from earlier today shown here, comes complete with a chart depicting that a vast part of Europe will most probably witness a well below average November in terms of Temperature.

There are no doubt, other informative posts out there which are giving early signals as to where winter might be heading as well.

[jethro]

Bored with the whining and sniping now, stay on topic, without the moaning, or expect your posts to be deleted.

[Snowy Easterlies]

we can't even get a greenland high when the PV is weak, this is the second failed attempt already, whats it gonna be like in winter when the PV is stronger, of course this is not a winter is over post

yes im not expecting a 62/63 winter, but i just fear once we get set into a mild zonal period it will stick around for ages and ages, who knows what will happen though, one minute the experts on here tell us things are looking good the next minute its bad news

[jethro]

we can't even get a greenland high when the PV is weak, this is the second failed attempt already, whats it gonna be like in winter when the PV is stronger, of course this is not a winter is over post

yes im not expecting a 62/63 winter, but i just fear once we get set into a mild zonal period it will stick around for ages and ages, who knows what will happen though, one minute the experts on here tell us things are looking good the next minute its bad news

Opinions change on whether things are looking good or bad depending upon the numerous aspects which contribute to the weather. Some signs like the AO may be in a phase conducive to cold weather, others like the Strat may not. There are countless things which have an impact on our weather here, they will never all point to cold or mild, they will always give mixed signals. I suggest you look at all the forecasts/predictions/observations as possible clues to what may lay ahead because no one, amateur or professional can give any guarantees. Oh, and keeping your fingers crossed wouldn't go amiss either.

[phil nw.]

we can't even get a greenland high when the PV is weak, this is the second failed attempt already, whats it gonna be like in winter when the PV is stronger, of course this is not a winter is over post

yes im not expecting a 62/63 winter, but i just fear once we get set into a mild zonal period it will stick around for ages and ages, who knows what will happen though, one minute the experts on here tell us things are looking good the next minute its bad news

The patterns can and will change through Winter many times-sometimes quite quickly.

Here`s an illustration-- from the dreaded Azores high and a nasty looking vortex-

and a week later to this

a Greenland blocking high which started the severe cold spell.

The point is we can only project probable patterns from the background signals at the time and these also change frequently so what we see now can look quite different a week or two later.

[Alan Medlock Valley]

Like others on here I think it would be good to see a proper Winter, BUT sometimes we have to face the reality that our climate is maritime and heavily influenced by the Atlantic and gulf stream so lots of snow and cold isn't our default pattern in Winter and never will be unless something cataclysmic happens.

But instead mild, wind and rain is our default Winter pattern. Sometimes it seems like nothing can stop the Atlantic train once it gets going. Or the Azores high parking itself to the South bringing very mild Winter weather.

If we was 800 miles east and north of here then we'd be laughing every Winter. The fact is if you want to see a lot of snow every Winter then the UK is not the place to be, the past few years were the exception rather than the norm.

Years ago we had more snow but there was many mild Winters that I remember as well, so it is not a modern thing.

The UK, Ireland, Western France and Iberia are the mildest places in Europe in Winter due to where we are positioned.

No where in the UK does as good as places like the Nordic countries, Eastern France, Germany, Poland, Ukraine etc all do far far better in terms of snow and cold.

But it is only the weather after all, so let's take it on the chin like big people and at least try to enjoy what it will bring, after all we have no control over it so I won't get too fussed if it is mild. I have nothing to lose over something like that.

Edited October 30, 2012 by Alan Medlock Valley

[gottolovethisweather]

we can't even get a greenland high when the PV is weak, this is the second failed attempt already, whats it gonna be like in winter when the PV is stronger, of course this is not a winter is over post

yes im not expecting a 62/63 winter, but i just fear once we get set into a mild zonal period it will stick around for ages and ages, who knows what will happen though, one minute the experts on here tell us things are looking good the next minute its bad news

Not sure whom you refer to as experts and besides, that doesn't even count for anything, as the more you study the climate patterns, model outputs etc. yourself, the more you will learn.

Simply put, the weather is constantly changing and more importantly so, the global processes in the stratosphere change daily. One run from one chart will tell you nothing unless a significant trend can be determined and even then, chaos theory should be considered.

Nobody would sensibly write off winter at this stage nor should anybody hype up the mother of all winters either, as the reality cannot be accurately determined. In spite of this and it's time I hit the hay, this thread is actually for the purpose of discussing.......................

Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

If any lurkers, newbies or other folk are up for it, I thoroughly recommend the following threads for early clues as to what may be in store, in the period of concern.

http://forum.netweat...3/page__st__820

http://forum.netweat...80#entry2393877

http://forum.netweat...00#entry2391463

EDIT: Many Thanks for the recent contributions from Phil, Alan et.al whilst I was typing this post.

Edited October 30, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[feb1991blizzard]

Opinions change on whether things are looking good or bad depending upon the numerous aspects which contribute to the weather. Some signs like the AO may be in a phase conducive to cold weather, others like the Strat may not. There are countless things which have an impact on our weather here, they will never all point to cold or mild, they will always give mixed signals. I suggest you look at all the forecasts/predictions/observations as possible clues to what may lay ahead because no one, amateur or professional can give any guarantees. Oh, and keeping your fingers crossed wouldn't go amiss either.

But from what i have read its like a jigsaw, patience required and no point being negative before winter starts but the AO is not going to go big negative without a warm strat in the first place, i know your only using it as an example but so am i in that you cannot put a single peice of a Jigsaw puzzle that is right in the centre into postion without starting with the straight edge peices, so if disaster does strike (and i see no evidence that it will yet) and we have the last month of Autumn and into winter with a well below strat, people are going to be concerned, we should however wait and see first.

[SnowObsessor90]

...

Edited October 31, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Chris D]

Well I'm going to refer to Joe B's (Laminate Floori) old saying....because I feel like saying it....

"well remember to enjoy the weather, it's the only weather ya got!"

With regards to this Winter.

Edited October 30, 2012 by Chris D

[johnholmes]

some very silly comments in here again this evening, tomorrow is the last day of October. Quite why some folk PART read some of the more knowledgeable posters and make 2+2 anything but 4 is beyond me. There again I should not be surprised as it happens every year.

please try this thread, link below, instead of cluttering up thos one with moans

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71590-the-moaning-about-winter-thread/

Edited October 30, 2012 by johnholmes

[Snowman.]

exactly and tbh the Azores high is overdue its presence on us, as we haven;t seen much of it since guess when? oh yeah last winter, who knows how long it could establish itself for though, 2 weeks, 4 weeks, 8 weeks 4 months ????

Would I right in thinking that this is because of the negative NAO?

[CanadaAl]

Apologies for going off topic but was 'superstorm' sandy caused by the distorted jet pattern? I.e the system being forced up the east coast as opposed to tracking north east.

[Snowy Easterlies]

a positive NAO would help aid an azores high

and i agree with phil, yes we can be in a dreaded pattern and then 5 days later northern blocking can appear out of no where, i have seen the archives, but sometimes i have positive days and sometimes i have negative days, and tonight was a negative one, hence the moan, because last nights 00z looked very good albeit there was actually no cold air over us but there was plenty of northern blocking and today it gets downgraded

Edited October 31, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Met4Cast]

exactly and tbh the Azores high is overdue its presence on us, as we haven;t seen much of it since guess when? oh yeah last winter, who knows how long it could establish itself for though, 2 weeks, 4 weeks, 8 weeks 4 months ????

You could also say we're overdue a 3 month freeze like 62, we haven't seen one on those since, guess when? 1962. It's too early to be calling things like this, if the Azores high does become established then it becomes established, nothing we can do about it. Background signals are currently not supportive of a Positive NAO so like someone else pointed out, the Azores ridge will be fleeting, if it even varifies.

we can't even get a greenland high when the PV is weak, this is the second failed attempt already, whats it gonna be like in winter when the PV is stronger, of course this is not a winter is over post

The Greenland High was there all through the summer and is still very much there right now

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn121.png

I don't quite understand what you mean by second failed attempt? We have the Greenland High and we've seen below average temperatures for the last 5 days and the below average regime looks likely to continue for a while to come with the Atlantic block not wanting to shift very quickly. Do you expect us to be buried under snowfall? It's October.

[Snowy Easterlies]

the azores high is a common synoptic though, so odds are it will come around again, 62.63 winter is a one off so what are the odds on that happening this winter

we haven't got a greenland high right now its more like a canada high i don't see any yellows around greenland atm

no i don't expect snow in october but i would like it to remain chilly/cold, of course i expect a mild spell but its not knowing how long a mild spell will last for that worries me, if its 2 weeks thats fine but i hope its not 2 months or more

Edited October 31, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[BornFromTheVoid]

To add to Phil's fine post

21st of January this year- +ve NAO, westerly winds and uppers well above 0C

30th, Scandi high, easterly winds and uppers widely below -5C

Apologies for going off topic but was 'superstorm' sandy caused by the distorted jet pattern? I.e the system being forced up the east coast as opposed to tracking north east.

The unusual direction of the storm was caused by the jet stream. As it approached NYC is got caught by a northward looping jet streak, which pulled the system to the north west and intensified it.

Edited October 31, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[Snowy Easterlies]

here's another example

7th november plain old bog standard synoptics zzzzzzzzz http://modeles.meteo...-6-1-192.png?18

12th november this happens if it were the 12th december would that bring snow ? http://modeles.meteo...-6-1-312.png?18

shame they will change come the 00z runs

last year we were stuck in a rut with a raging PV for ages and everyday was groundhog day and people kept telling us "its only november don't worry" and look what happened nothing decent came until feb, so lets hope its not going to be the same this winter, i would prefer winter to be spread out over three months, not all in one little spell in feb even though it was potent

i would like snow and cold for 2 weeks in dec, 2 weeks in jan and 2 weeks in feb, 6 cold weeks out of 12 and the rest can be mild, is that too much to ask for ?

Edited October 31, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Mark Neal.]

here's another example

7th november plain old bog standard synoptics zzzzzzzzz http://modeles.meteo...-6-1-192.png?18

12th november this happens if it were the 12th december would that bring snow ? http://modeles.meteo...-6-1-312.png?18

shame they will change come the 00z runs

But how many times has situations like that happened is it a common thing ? because last year we were stuck in a rut with a raging PV for ages and everyday was groundhog day

I think it just goes to show, even with those 2 charts you have posted, things can change ever so quickly... In regard for worrying about the PV setting up shop and intensifying and then a Azores High. Not until January at the very earliest would i start to worry. Winter is still a month away before it even begins and then we have another 3 months to endure.. Fun and Games along the way.. Thats the wonderful thing about our weather, always changing times. Although it does feel like we have been stuck in the same pattern for quite some time now. Northern Blocking.. Southerly Tracking Jet..

Enjoy what the next few weeks and following months have to throw at us

Edited October 31, 2012 by Mark Neal.

[Met4Cast]

the azores high is a common synoptic though, so odds are it will come around again, 62.63 winter is a one off so what are the odds on that happening this winter

we haven't got a greenland high right now its more like a canada high i don't see any yellows around greenland atm http://modeles.meteo...fsnh-0-6.png?18

no i don't expect snow in october but i would like it to remain chilly/cold, of course i expect a mild spell but its not knowing how long a mild spell will last for that worries me, if its 2 weeks thats fine but i hope its not 2 months or more

Just because we haven't got yellows over Greenland it doesn't mean it can't be classed as a Greenland high. There's high pressure centered over Greenland, I'm pretty sure it therefore can be classed as a "Greenland high" albeit, perhaps not a strong one

[Mark Neal.]

Just because we haven't got yellows over Greenland it doesn't mean it can't be classed as a Greenland high. There's high pressure centered over Greenland, I'm pretty sure it therefore can be classed as a "Greenland high" albeit, perhaps not a strong one

Thats what i have noticed, i think that is why a few on here are getting confused seeing blue colours over Greenland and immediately thinking that is low pressure, though it does seem even with the blue pressure stays what i would say is 'High Pressure'.