Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[chionomaniac]

Well for starters I only recorded 7 nights of frost with temps below zero, the lowest daytime maximum was just below zero for two days which brought us freezing rain, the only snow that fell was in December prior to Xmas which brought a slushy covering before thawing overnight. There was only one winter in the thirty odd years of weather watching that was worse and that was 88/89. So I think for IMBY I can put my hand on heart and say one of the worst for thirty years. People forget that last February's cold spell didn't deliver for most in the NW/ West.

I think that John meant could you explain the factors that make you think that the forthcoming winter is going to be that bad - not justify how bad you felt last winter was!

[johnholmes]

Well for starters I only recorded 7 nights of frost with temps below zero, the lowest daytime maximum was just below zero for two days which brought us freezing rain, the only snow that fell was in December prior to Xmas which brought a slushy covering before thawing overnight. There was only one winter in the thirty odd years of weather watching that was worse and that was 88/89. So I think for IMBY I can put my hand on heart and say one of the worst for thirty years. People forget that last February's cold spell didn't deliver for most in the NW/ West.

I think you misunderstood my question?

What I was seeking is why you feel this winter is going to be as bad for you and what can you give as reasons to show this will happen?

[Methuselah]

How can one individual model chart make one think that this winter (which is still four weeks' off) is going to be the same as the last one?

[chionomaniac]

How can one individual model chart make one think that this winter (which is still four weeks' off) is going to be the same as the last one?

or even a weeks worth.......

[Zakos]

interesting and informative blog update on the prospects for this winter. http://ukweather.wordpress.com/winter-201213/

If you have faith in long range weather models, then this winter is certainly looking very cold at the moment, CFS completely on its own.

I dont have much faith myself, but when many models "flip" to cold then it does give some encouragement.

Edited October 31, 2012 by Zakos

[Barry12]

or even a weeks worth.......

or 3 days!

p.s chino when do you think the cold will arrive?

[UV-RAY]

I think that John meant could you explain the factors that make you think that the forthcoming winter is going to be that bad - not justify how bad you felt last winter was!

Yes I see now, I'm just observing how we are seeing heights declining as the PV starts to gather momentum over the coming weeks, off course it's still early days but if those NH charts continue showing the same in the next few weeks then the alarm bells will start ringing.

[UV-RAY]

How can one individual model chart make one think that this winter (which is still four weeks' off) is going to be the same as the last one?

But I'm not basing my ideas on one run.

[Barry12]

interesting and informative blog update on the prospects for this winter. http://ukweather.wor.../winter-201213/

If you have faith in long range weather models, then this winter is certainly looking very cold at the moment, CFS completely on its own.

I dont have much faith myself, but when many models "flip" to cold then it does give some encouragement.

Daniels weather site I believe, reading that it looks very postive for a below average Winter, all the models apart from one are going for a below average winter. Just the ECM predicting a above average winter. The stratosphere, while not showing anything spectacular, is still average. Which is not bad.

[UV-RAY]

Daniels weather site I believe, reading that it looks very postive for a below average Winter, all the models apart from one are going for a below average winter. Just the ECM predicting a above average winter. The stratosphere, while not showing anything spectacular, is still average. Which is not bad.

Trouble is though this time last year the CFS was the only one pointing to a bore fest.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Personally I think it's a good thing that we have slightly chilly and unsettled conditions at the moment. It is probably about right for November and is a good base to build from. Just remember the most memorable winters didn't get going till late December and the middle of Jan so in my mind it is still all to play for! Just a little bit of patience required. Personally I think we were spoilt by having the coldest December on record and perhaps this has clouded some folks judgements. I think the real cold and snow will come a bit later in the season around New Year and with a bit a luck finish in early to mid March :~)

[Barry12]

Personally I think it's a good thing that we have slightly chilly and unsettled conditions at the moment. It is probably about right for November and is a good base to build from. Just remember the most memorable winters didn't get going till late December and the middle of Jan so in my mind it is still all to play for! Just a little bit of patience required. Personally I think we were spoilt by having the coldest December on record and perhaps this has clouded some folks judgements. I think the real cold and snow will come a bit later in the season around New Year and with a bit a luck finish in early to mid March :~)

Hoping for a repeat of 2009/10, winter didn't get going until mid December, but lasted until mid February here.

[AutumnMists]

Trouble is though this time last year the CFS was the only one pointing to a bore fest.

Last year, the CFS never really knew what it was doing (take a look at the archives) and there were other models pointing to a milder winter such as the UKMET for example.

Honestly, we are in a better position than this time last year. This time last year, firstly, we were seeing temperatures in the high teens down South, and we were in the middle of watching the models starting to flip towards a milder winter.

[Snowman.]

If anything December can turn crappy if it wants just want a nice cold easterly January. Hope that the Azores high keeps it ugly rear from entering the UK!

[AutumnMists]

If anything December can turn crappy if it wants just want a nice cold easterly January. Hope that the Azores high keeps it ugly rear from entering the UK!

That's what I'm hoping, I'm more of a person keen on seeing the cold in January/Februaury time rather than November/December time

[I remember Atlantic 252]

That's what I'm hoping, I'm more of a person keen on seeing the cold in January/Februaury time rather than November/December time

I would rather see cold for late Nov to early Jan, similar to 2010-2011

[AutumnMists]

I would rather see cold for late Nov to early Jan, similar to 2010-2011

Personal preference I suppose

Maybe more like 2009-2010 which saw the cold and snow before, during and after Christmas.

I just think snowfall Too early such as 2010-11 (where it disappeared just after Christmas and never really made a reappearance) is a bit boring and then there is just a big long wait until the next interesting thing arrives (the heat that starts to arrive in the late Spring).

2008-09 was my favourite recent Winter, we had a decent small fall at the start of December, regular light falls in January and then of course the infamous February 2009

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Personal preference I suppose

Maybe more like 2009-2010 which saw the cold and snow before, during and after Christmas.

I just think snowfall Too early such as 2010-11 (where it disappeared just after Christmas and never really made a reappearance) is a bit boring and then there is just a big long wait until the next interesting thing arrives (the heat that starts to arrive in the late Spring).

2008-09 was my favourite recent Winter, we had a decent small fall at the start of December, regular light falls in January and then of course the infamous February 2009

cold is far better at Xmas or the run up, or just after new year, makes Xmas feel much better, and also mid nov to mid Jan is lowest weakest sun, 10-11 was my favourite recent winter

[AutumnMists]

cold is far better at Xmas or the run up, or just after new year, makes Xmas feel much better, and also mid nov to mid Jan is lowest weakest sun, 10-11 was my favourite recent winter

I suppose it also depends on location as well, for example here in the Pennines the largest accumulation was January 2010, then February 2009 then December 2010

[SnowObsessor90]

That's what I'm hoping, I'm more of a person keen on seeing the cold in January/Februaury time rather than November/December time

I'd be happy with a decent enough covering that lasted for a week or just under without thawing too much no matter which period it ended up occurring in, if I could just have that then I really wouldn't care less if the rest of the winter was 'mild'.

[Snowman.]

I would rather see cold for late Nov to early Jan, similar to 2010-2011

Tbh Essex missed most of the snow in December 4" max one good snowfall? November was about double that or more which is always good. February this year was a decent snowfall just didn't stick around long enough. I remember the 09/10 winter being my favourite winter of all as January never let me down with snow showers in February every week or so never go old!

[EML Network]

I've been saying on this forum and others that I just cannot see a cold Winter this time around.

The recent blocking we have seen won't last forever, nature does have a way of balancing things out in this part of the world, so if we are going to get a couple of months where all the synoptics are ''right'' for cold then I would have much preferred to have seen it in Dec/ Jan / Feb as opposed to September and October (and possibly part of November ?)

My fear is that we are going towards a repeat of last winter, with High pressure exerting itself in the ''wrong place'' , therefor don't be surprised to see an Azores High or a Euro high starting to rear it's ugly head in the coming runs into FI, (which we are already seeing on the GFS in actual fact).

What this does is stop any incursions from the North coming down into the majority of the UK, and the only places that do get a decent shot at cold is Scotland on occasion.

Once the NAO goes into the + phase it tends to stay there for a while and were seeing in the NAO forecast a move towards a more + phase and the AO forecast in a weeks time is for a very + phase.

I guess time will tell, but my gut feeling is that we'll have to be very patient this winter and might have to wait until 2013 for our first potent cold spell of weather.....but I really do hope I am wrong

[AutumnMists]

I've been saying on this forum and others that I just cannot see a cold Winter this time around.

The recent blocking we have seen won't last forever, nature does have a way of balancing things out in this part of the world, so if we are going to get a couple of months where all the synoptics are ''right'' for cold then I would have much preferred to have seen it in Dec/ Jan / Feb as opposed to September and October (and possibly part of November ?)

My fear is that we are going towards a repeat of last winter, with High pressure exerting itself in the ''wrong place'' , therefor don't be surprised to see an Azores High or a Euro high starting to rear it's ugly head in the coming runs into FI, (which we are already seeing on the GFS in actual fact).

What this does is stop any incursions from the North coming down into the majority of the UK, and the only places that do get a decent shot at cold is Scotland on occasion.

Once the NAO goes into the + phase it tends to stay there for a while and were seeing in the NAO forecast a move towards a more + phase and the AO forecast in a weeks time is for a very + phase.

I guess time will tell, but my gut feeling is that we'll have to be very patient this winter and might have to wait until 2013 for our first potent cold spell of weather.....but I really do hope I am wrong

It is a good job November is starting to look more above average then This means the blocking does have time to come back.

Think 2008/2009

[Snowy Easterlies]

I've been saying on this forum and others that I just cannot see a cold Winter this time around.

The recent blocking we have seen won't last forever, nature does have a way of balancing things out in this part of the world, so if we are going to get a couple of months where all the synoptics are ''right'' for cold then I would have much preferred to have seen it in Dec/ Jan / Feb as opposed to September and October (and possibly part of November ?)

My fear is that we are going towards a repeat of last winter, with High pressure exerting itself in the ''wrong place'' , therefor don't be surprised to see an Azores High or a Euro high starting to rear it's ugly head in the coming runs into FI, (which we are already seeing on the GFS in actual fact).

What this does is stop any incursions from the North coming down into the majority of the UK, and the only places that do get a decent shot at cold is Scotland on occasion.

Once the NAO goes into the + phase it tends to stay there for a while and were seeing in the NAO forecast a move towards a more + phase and the AO forecast in a weeks time is for a very + phase.

I guess time will tell, but my gut feeling is that we'll have to be very patient this winter and might have to wait until 2013 for our first potent cold spell of weather.....but I really do hope I am wrong

yep agree with this post im a firm believer in the law of averages, we haven't seen a northerly tracking jet and euro high since march i think, we have seen many months of northern blocking and it has to run out of steam at some point, if we just came off the back of 6 months of a northerly jet and azores high i would be confident for the winter as i would hope a pattern change would be around the corner by now

we have to remember the azores high and zonailty is the norm its not gonna stay away forever, northern blocking is not the norm, well apart from summers they are typically

i remember people kept saying last year "its only november stop moaning" then looked what happened, i prey to god history doesn't repeat itself

we could have a winter like the mid noughties perhaps with a few northerly topplers but thats just a wild guess

but in truth the optimists could be wrong to slate the pessimists and the pessimists could be wrong to be over pessimistic

nobody knows what will happen, its a cliche but its the truth

[Evening thunder]

Expectation.. the coldest snowiest weather will occur from roughly the 19th-26th Jan (as that's about the dates I'm in South Spain!), my last 2 predictions of exciting and rare events happening the one week I'm away, or 2 days after I move away to Uni, have both been proved correct (as well as many others in the past).

Hopes/Wishes, some decent cold and snowy spells, a few nice dumps of snow or a battleground blizzard type event, including when I'm home for the Christmas break, and/or exciting Atlantic storms when I'm at home.

On another note reading some posts around recently I'd have thought some people wouldn't make it if we got another November 2009 and wouldn't get see the winter that followed... all based on a few inevitable GFS FI charts when the ECM FI charts happen to not look too bad.

Ahh just as I posted another example, the weather doesn't have a conscience, it doesn't think 'Oh look I've done lots of this for the last 6 months lets now do this instead to balance it out' I believe it's probably like rolling a dice, if you had 100 sixes in a row it doesn't make it any less likely the next roll will be a 6 (still 1 in 6 chance). Over a long period it will balance out to form an average (as weather variations are where the averages come from in the first place!), but I'd suggest just random not an alternating pattern, random data tends to cluster by it's nature.

People bring up last year as an example (still a decent cold spell for some in Feb), but again I point you back to November/December 2009, or various past cold winters that didn't get going until late December or January.

Sorry it seems this post ended up turning into a little rant!

Edited October 31, 2012 by Stormmad26