Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[AutumnMists]

That is why I have been referring to 08/09.

Some people seem to be ruling out this Winter much much to easily

[Don]

That is why I have been referring to 08/09.

Some people seem to be ruling out this Winter much much to easily

Indeed. After that potent arctic blast of late October 2008, the weather became very mild as we moved into November and it was only during the final third of the month that the weather turned much colder with snow for some. This set the scene for a colder than average December.....

[damianslaw]

Go back this time 5 years ago and people's expectations for winter in terms of cold and snow were much lower than they are now, thanks to a long run of average to very mild winters with limited snow. However, the three winters of 08-09, 09-10 and 10-11 have raised people's expectations markedly, but last year was a lesson to many and perhaps has brought some of us back down to earth a little. We can't expect another Dec 2010, this was a one off.. Also on average we don't tend to see lengthy cold snowy conditions develop before christmas, infamous winters in the past were preceeded by wet mild Novembers and first halves to December. Indeed, a cold snowy spell in November or first half of December always unnerves me.. a bit like a taste of summer during early spring...

However, one thing that has changed since 2007/2008 winter has been the average position of the jet, there is no denying it has taken a much more southerly position.. for very lengthy periods, its continued southerly trajectory is a potential good signal for increasing the likelihood of a colder than normal winter.

I'm fairly confident with regards prospects of at least a couple of decent lengthy cold snowy periods this coming winter.. I'm not expecting a winter like 1962/63 I never do..

I do feel we are in a 'wetter period' which started infamously in April, after a lengthy dry period which set in ironically just after the infamous wet November 2009.. a cold wet winter could be on the cards with a meridional jet bringing in potent arctic blasts with the threat of heavy snowfalls interspersed with shortlived quieter drier periods.. with February as is traditional most likely to deliver the most settled conditions. Could be a bumper ski season... if the current synoptics were to dominate through the winter, higher ground would receive copious amounts of snow with little thaw action.

These are just some initial thoughts.. the northern hemisphere is in a very different state to what it was this time last year and the north atlantic SST profile is also very different as well as ENSO which is projected to be a weak el nino at best near neutral - which makes it much more difficult to predict which way the winter is likely to go..

[stewfox]

Go back this time 5 years ago and people's expectations for winter in terms of cold and snow were much lower than they are now, thanks to a long run of average to very mild winters with limited snow. However, the three winters of 08-09, 09-10 and 10-11 have raised people's expectations markedly, but last year was a lesson to many and perhaps has brought some of us back down to earth a little. We can't expect another Dec 2010, this was a one off.. Also on average we don't tend to see lengthy cold snowy conditions develop before christmas, infamous winters in the past were preceeded by wet mild Novembers and first halves to December. Indeed, a cold snowy spell in November or first half of December always unnerves me.. a bit like a taste of summer during early spring...

'Expectations' of course can be a curse.

There was a lot of disappointment with the lack of wide spread snow in the recent cold snap (late October)

October is likely to be at least a 1c below average within CET nothing in November that looks above average temp wise at present.

I'm sure if we get a mild snap in November thats 'winters over'.

How I miss just having the country file weekly forecast, looking under lamp posts at 4am for snow flakes

ps Strats not warming winters over

[Snowman.]

CFS daily is all fun and games if your low on hopes that might cheers you up blocked for a 2 weeks!

Makes a different approach with the High that the GFS just hasn't got a scooby what to with it.

[The watcher]

So it's a case of come back in February then.

Off course it still only Autumn and lots can happen over the next 5-6 weeks, but I feel we are heading down a similar route to last winter which IMBY was one of the worst winters over the last thirty years for cold and snow.

Not necessarily so, like I said cold snaps can and will still occur, but an increase in Atlantic pace is what I was mainly referring to.

It is my understanding that the Polar Vortex when strengthened, helps keep a more mobile Atlantic flow with blocking unlikely, thus stabilising the NAO to a Neutral or when very strong, positive state. So considering that we can expect transitional periods as lows cross West to East and so, milder spells interspersed with cool or colder spells can still bring snowfall with a lot of precipitation around during the passing of strong LPs.

That is what I gather with taking a look in discussions in the strat thread and I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong, hopefully.

It is definitely not a winter is over post. Just a look at what could be happening as we enter early December.

[Barry12]

If it wasn't for 2009/10 then I wouldn't be here! I believe this winter will be around average.

[Eskimo]

If it wasn't for 2009/10 then I wouldn't be here! I believe this winter will be around average.

Moments like this make me wish 09/10 never happened.

[Barry12]

Haha

Don't make me post off topic!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Blizzards for Northern Scotland from this.

Normally write it off at this range but ECM heading in a similar direction.

[Jackfrost]

This isn't really the correct thread to put this, but it's sleeting/snowing heavily in various places in South Wales (including here). It was only expected on the highest ground today, so it's nice to see.

[lindy2017]

This isn't really the correct thread to put this, but it's sleeting/snowing heavily in various places in South Wales (including here). It was only expected on the highest ground today, so it's nice to see.

We have snow last 20 mins 1350 ft asl............

[Mountain Snow]

Snow down to 600m on the Lake District fells, winters getting closer!

[Barry12]

Snow over the pennines today aswell, hopefully a bit of sleet/snow gets a bit lower

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=54.702800,-2.486670

Edited November 1, 2012 by Barry95

[Methuselah]

Please put your snow reports here: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74869-november-snow-reports/

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

You know when winter is coming when you have stinking cold.

[Snowy Easterlies]

maybe best to take a break from model watching now for a few days, as its back to plain old bog standard synoptics zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

no doubt i will end up checking every run though as it only takes a quick scan of the charts to see what the general pattern is, but no need to study every aspect of it like i would do if a cold blast was on the way

tbh i don't mind a milder spell now really, but i would hope to see a big change after mid nov when its realistically possible for there to be proper snow in my neck of the woods

Edited November 1, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[chionomaniac]

maybe best to take a break from model watching now for a few days, as its back to plain old bog standard synoptics zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

You are looking at the wrong charts, SE!

[AutumnMists]

December looks bleak though, wet and mild like last year.

2003/2004 anyone?

[Methuselah]

December looks bleak though, wet and mild like last year.

2003/2004 anyone?

Apart from the CFS, which is, arguably, next to useless, December is still a complete unknown...

Edited November 1, 2012 by Rybris Ponce

[AutumnMists]

Apart from the CFS, which is, arguably, nest to useless, December is still a complete unknown...

I was just throwing back and forth some ideas.

I myself just have a slight feeling December will end up average or above with above average rainfall although I cannot say anything for truth at the moment, thus I will have probably changed my mind in two weeks!

[Eskimo]

I did promise a winter forecast for November/December & January so I will issue one now.

It's been a bit of a funny year in terms of the weather, there has been an awful lot of northern blocking and it's still like that currently. Having northern blocking is perfect if you want cold weather however it isn't the only thing you need unfortunately. You also need a displaced polar vortex or a lack of one, a polar vortex is a large area of low pressure that sets up every autumn-winter which scuppers the cold, it basically rolls around the Arctic knocking the northern blocking out of the way. However this year the polar vortex is taking a long time to materialise although it has appeared in the models in the next 10 days.

So here is my own opinion on the forthcoming winter...

November - I have included November in my winter prediction because it can be a very cold month, you only need to look back to 2010 to know that, although it was exceptionally cold. November will stay largely below average but have above average rainfall, this means snowfall towards the end of the month can't be ruled out. With the northern blocking in place, you also can't rule out some potent northerlies towards the end of the month.

December - December I'm finding quite difficult to forecast because many models have been flicking backwards and forwards between the two extremes (very cold or very mild). An educated guess has to be made to determine what sort of month we are likely to see. December looks to be slightly below normal but not greatly, it will be similar to November temperature wise but drier than average. I feel as though milder weather will be more frequent in this month than November.

January - It's at this point where details become less clear for obvious reasons and the guess work becomes merely a stab in the dark sometimes, however some models are going for a colder than average month. This month is where I'm expecting winter to really dig its heels in, I'm not expecting brutal temperatures but this is the month generally where we will see our highest snowfall totals and below average temperatures, however as UK winters go...milder weather cannot be ruled out of the equation.

In conclusion, a largely below average winter but nothing exceptionally cold, mild weather will fluctuate but colder weather (at the moment) looks to be winning the game. Rainfall (snowfall) on average will remain normal.

If you live in the southeast please like my Facebook page -

https://www.facebook...bookmark_t=page

Edited November 1, 2012 by PerfectStorm

[Ninman]

You are looking at the wrong charts, SE!

Although this is deep in FI, it's showing another northly blast of cold air. The jetstream looks to be keeping the azores high in the Atlantic also (the last few model runs are looking to develop the azores high but this is positioned south/west of the jetstream so is blocked from moving over the UK). Let's hope this continues!

[gottolovethisweather]

I did promise a winter forecast for November/December & January so I will issue one now.

It's been a bit of a funny year in terms of the weather, there has been an awful lot of northern blocking and it's still like that currently. Having northern blocking is perfect if you want cold weather however it isn't the only thing you need unfortunately. You also need a displaced polar vortex or a lack of one, a polar vortex is a large area of low pressure that sets up every autumn-winter which scuppers the cold, it basically rolls around the Arctic knocking the northern blocking out of the way. However this year the polar vortex is taking a long time to materialise although it has appeared in the models in the next 10 days.

So here is my own opinion on the forthcoming winter...

November - I have included November in my winter prediction because it can be a very cold month, you only need to look back to 2010 to know that, although it was exceptionally cold. November will stay largely below average but have above average rainfall, this means snowfall towards the end of the month can't be ruled out. With the northern blocking in place, you also can't rule out some potent northerlies towards the end of the month.

December - December I'm finding quite difficult to forecast because many models have been flicking backwards and forwards between the two extremes (very cold or very mild). An educated guess has to be made to determine what sort of month we are likely to see. December looks to be slightly below normal but not greatly, it will be similar to November temperature wise but drier than average. I feel as though milder weather will be more frequent in this month than November.

January - It's at this point where details become less clear for obvious reasons and the guess work becomes merely a stab in the dark sometimes, however some models are going for a colder than average month. This month is where I'm expecting winter to really dig its heels in, I'm not expecting brutal temperatures but this is the month generally where we will see our highest snowfall totals and below average temperatures, however as UK winters go...milder weather cannot be ruled out of the equation.

In conclusion, a largely below average winter but nothing exceptionally cold, mild weather will fluctuate but colder weather (at the moment) looks to be winning the game. Rainfall (snowfall) on average will remain normal.

If you live in the southeast please like my Facebook page -

https://www.facebook...bookmark_t=page

Many Thanks PS, but did you forget to put up your February expectations.

[Eskimo]

Purposely left out February because it really is too far away, it would be ridiculous to forecast 3 months out...let alone 2 months lol.