North of England Regional Discussion

[Simon_]

Just had a heavy sleet shower here in Cheadle.

[itsnowjoke]

Heavy hail shower and still going.

[Polar Maritime]

2.6c here Dew point 1.4c Wind chill 0.1c 5mph W/N/W Showers.

Edited December 3, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[itsnowjoke]

And we got a NNW'ly wind, be a day of clear blue skies and nice convective shower clouds to our East!

As I said in the model thread, hopefully the slightly colder than first thought trend may mean the cold will be a bit more stubborn and make Thursday's potential more interesting, sadly the angle of the low on the GFS runs are still not the best sadly.

The timing of the front for our region is not the best either unfortunately, coming in the middle of the day and with the mild sector may mean we could be on the wrong side of marginal. That said, Wednesday could very much be a VERY cold one though.

whats new marginal is my new middle name:)

Nah lol. Small chance on Wednesday though.

ok thanks : )

[Thundery wintry showers]

Now then,

Just read your post in MOD thread and thought it best to reply here instead. You mentioned If the Easterly pulls off and hoping it's not a dry cloudy SE'ly we could see wintry showers, snow inland and marginal on the coast. It's ages away and surely finer detail like that will firm up closer to the time when and if it comes off.

I'm a little confused as most are mega excited about the potential and just how cold it could be yet it may only deliver wintry showers here! (If that's all i can expect i won't bother getting excited!)

Just what would we need to see in the models to be garunteed snow on the coast?

Any clarification would be really appreciated.

Cheers Mate.

As a general rule, in an easterly or north-easterly type in Scotland or northern England, I think that the 850hPa temperature ideally needs to be -8C or below to support lying snow within a few miles of the east coast, and -6C or below inland. Most runs have been suggesting 850hPa temperatures between -6 and -8C, hence my assessment of marginal near the coast but snowy inland. This is also supported by the temperature projections on the GFS runs that have gone for an easterly or north-easterly type. However, there is certainly potential for colder airmasses to come in off the continent.

For south-east England the shorter track over the North Sea means that the airmass doesn't have to be as cold at upper levels to support snow, but on the other hand convection over the North Sea is less guaranteed there.

Edited December 3, 2012 by Thundery wintry showers

[NorthYorksWeather]

Couple of snapshots with regards to snow potential over the next few days.

Tomorrow evening we see a trough moving NW/SE running from the Lake District down to Lincolnshire with the possibility of back edge snowfall most likely over high ground in the Pennines/Peak District as colder upper's get wrapped around shortwave. The snow level could drop as the precip is shown to be locally heavy at times.

There looks to be a few snow shower's in Northern parts of England behind this trough.

The next area of interest is overnight tomorrow the winds veer round to the N/NE as there is a chance of snow showers running down the East coast possibly coming further inland, with upper's of -6/7c we could see snowfall down to low levels and also a good covering over elevated area's such as NorthYorkMoors and Yorkshire Wolds.

Already frosty here this evening at 1.4c and tomorrow night looks much colder with an air frost for most of our region.

Plenty to look forward to in the short term and long term for cold/snow lovers

[Cheese Rice]

Yes some very interesting weather pushing in tonight lasting till the end of tomorrow.

Constant streamers pushing in.

A particularly noteworthy one below

Really heavy stuff pushing into West Yorks/Leeds projected to fall as very heavy sleet/snow/

[NorthYorksWeather]

Just hope we do not get a 1987 repeat.. not very snowy here if my memory serves me correctly.

I think what is important for you area during easterly's is very cold uppers and tight isobars pushing the showers well inland, if the flow is too slack the showers will tend to die out around the vale of York and not reach the Pennines.

[iand61]

Some quite heavy showers here overnight and still going on now.

A bit of sleetyness within them but not amounting to anything and with a current temperature of 2.8c I can't see that changing.

Things lare possibly looking a little more hopeful for later today and on Thursday but I still feel that the coming days are going to be more wet than white, certainly this side of the Pennines.

[shadowfax]

Just to following on from Iand61, that sleetyness has now turned to big snow flakes. No chance of any settling, but better than rain!!

[iand61]

Just to following on from Iand61, that sleetyness has now turned to big snow flakes. No chance of any settling, but better than rain!!

Is that officially Bacup's first snow of year then Shadowfax.

If so it's been along time coming but hopefully it's the first of many falls this winter.

Raining where I am but a lot lower ASL

[shadowfax]

i think it is, there may have been the odd flurry but was the real thing, sods law its when my boiler is sick and the gas manneeds to get up the drive. now in asda car park and its raining here.

[Barry12]

Met still forecasting rain here on Thursday, some heavy too, I'm sure there will be a few flakes in the heavier bursts. 3C so it will be marginal.

[James M]

Well it's sleeting on my way to college in Oldham this morning, I guess that means snow higher up!

[pip22]

Been raining here all night that is not a good news for people living besides the rivers. I think around 20mm has already fallen here and counting. Theres also been an odd burst of hail in there last night too.

Edited December 4, 2012 by Fresh_Prince_Of_Leyland

[Backtrack]

Heavy rain and hail all yesterday, last night and now this morning. Cold too at 2.9C. Evaporative cooling at its best!

[StLuke]

Could be a interesting day in the upper areas of the peak district today, snow settling on flash and cat & fiddle web cams. Will report back later but definately made the right decision to go hill walking yesterday and not today.

[4wd]

Ground temps must be low, it's been dry and breezy overnight with min of 2.4C but still have areas of snow hardly changed from late yesterday.

[Polar Maritime]

Sleet/Snow showers here, Temp 1.2 Dew point 0c Wind chill -1.1c

Mod Snow now.

Edited December 4, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Backtrack]

Sleet/Snow showers here, Temp 1.2 Dew point 0c Wind chill -1.1c

Mod Snow now.

Interesting, uppers are only -3C. What's your height asl mate? I'm on my phone so unable to view locations.

[Polar Maritime]

Interesting, uppers are only -3C. What's your height asl mate? I'm on my phone so unable to view locations.

Interesting, uppers are only -3C. What's your height asl mate? I'm on my phone so unable to view locations.

305m or 1001ft, could just be touching -4c uppers here...

Edited December 4, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just missing it here thankfully, raintoday shows it close, can see the 'orrid rain to my NE

[Polar Maritime]

Back to rain here now, more evaporative cooling i think in the heavy showers, once the cold -6/-7 uppers get to us tonight things should get more wintry..

[Backtrack]

305m or 1001ft, could just be touching -4c uppers here...

Not too shabby, enjoy!

[itsnowjoke]

3c and raining i love winter lol.