Model Output Discussion 12z 07/11/2012

[Liam J]

The 18z shows what could happen with everything falling into place IF the heights built and retrograded as shown on the GFS this evening. A very drunken pub run tonight, nice to see yes, perhaps a big outlier? It'll be interesting to see if the 00z run also produces this evolution into FI although I suspect it's just a tease and the place will be littered with toys come morning.... Such is the cruel activity of chasing cold in the depths of FI

Edited November 12, 2012 by Liam J

[davehsug]

Nov/Dec was a once in a 100 years event. It's a shame to see some "respected" posters alluding to it, especially from the 18z of all things! It really is a shame when this thread loses all sense of reason between October & March every year & for some reason, this year seems even worse than usual.

[cold snap]

best run seen since 2010 no run last winter was even close to that ,im out of breath,enjoyable run

[blizzard81]

Nov/Dec was a once in a 100 years event. It's a shame to see some "respected" posters alluding to it, especially from the 18z of all things! It really is a shame when this thread loses all sense of reason between October & March every year & for some reason, this year seems even worse than usual.

CFS 3 and 4 weekly ensembles back up GP's thoughts with regards to blocking signal over southern Greenland/Iceland.

This has had a few wobbles over the last couple of days but it has now reverted to what it was consistantly showing

a week or so ago. Good news indeed. Sorry, didn't mean this to be a response to Davehsug - hit the wrong quote icon!!

Edited November 12, 2012 by blizzard81

[Snowman.]

#WeatherPorn on that 18z GFS glad I checked!

[TEITS]

Well after the 18z its about time I returned to this thread.

[Mark Neal.]

Loved viewing the latter stages of the GFS 18z, lovely jubbly. Its the pub run and huge pinch of salt is needed but lovely to see. Interestingly it isn't the only model run which has shown some intriguing blocking towards FI. Next model runs will be a must see!

[Met4Cast]

Nov/Dec was a once in a 100 years event. It's a shame to see some "respected" posters alluding to it, especially from the 18z of all things! It really is a shame when this thread loses all sense of reason between October & March every year & for some reason, this year seems even worse than usual.

Whats wrong with alluding to 2010? Before 2010 most people had decided that synoptics and setups like that just weren't possible anymore, then 2010 happened. People are still referring to 1962 so I don't see the problem in mentioning 2010. Whos to say it can't happen again this winter anyway? I think ruling it out completely is more of a shame than anything.

Besides people are posting this for fun, no one is actually expecting them to verify.

Edited November 12, 2012 by Daniel AKA WMD

[bluearmy]

Ooh - short memories indeed re last winters teasing runs. They happen every year and since dec 2010, they have failed to deliver. Of course we're getting a tad over excited but its not as if the solution hasn't been trailed. tomorrow will no doubt bring a different set of variations around a theme. I expect this may not be the last time we'll see this particular solution over the next couple weeks.

[snowking]

Nov/Dec was a once in a 100 years event. It's a shame to see some "respected" posters alluding to it, especially from the 18z of all things! It really is a shame when this thread loses all sense of reason between October & March every year & for some reason, this year seems even worse than usual.

My friend

I dont think anybody is taking it seriously. Has anybody come out and said 'this is definitely going to happen, this is nailed on'.

Its mentioned purely for conjecture

Ensembles will be an interesting read not for how much of an outlier the op might be, but more to see whether the growing trend of runs dipping below average continues as it has over the past 24-36 hours

SK

[Thundery wintry showers]

The GFS 18Z outputs are not implausible, but they do represent the coldest/snowiest-case scenario out of a wide range of possibilities for the last week of November. I notice that there are hints of an evolution in that direction at the end of the ECMWF operational run, but as we saw in January 2006 and February 2007, even if we do get high pressure ridging across to the north, the Atlantic trough may end up strong enough and far north/east enough to keep the cold continental air at bay.

[Ice Day]

Well after the 18z its about time I returned to this thread.

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-360.png?18

Love that chart. Sort of a tilted flabby omega block!

[bobbydog]

i hope the land rover passes its MOT......!

[TEITS]

Nov/Dec was a once in a 100 years event. It's a shame to see some "respected" posters alluding to it, especially from the 18z of all things! It really is a shame when this thread loses all sense of reason between October & March every year & for some reason, this year seems even worse than usual.

I think Steve is using Nov 2010 as an example of how it developed. The purpose of his post isn't suggesting we are going to see a repeat of 2010 but an excellent guide for what members need to look out for in future model runs. For example you could see the Nov/Dec cold spell develop early on (see link below).

http://www.wetterzen...00120101118.gif

Every winter you will always read members saying how we need to see LP undercutting and the archives are full of examples. Using the archive charts is an excellent way for members to understand how cold spells develop.

Edited November 12, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[fergieweather]

As for this 'pub run' 18z GFS thing: to my knowledge the only difference between 06z / 18z runs and those initiated at 00z / 12z by NOAA is absence of US radiosonde network data input. In any event of course, thIs single run output remains unconvincing until we see better continuity.

[swfc]

great eye candy on the pub run .the pressure rise on ecm and gfs is a trend gathering momentum and ties in with gp points over the last week or so.not sure who said it on here but""small steps"is they way forward

[Mark Neal.]

i hope the land rover passes its MOT......!

Thought it wouldn't be long before the precip type charts/snow risk show up... *Not happy with this, would be give me sleet.. Winters over.. Panic.. I can't trust this run at all, as it gives me no snow.. Awful.. (* Sarcasm included)

Interestingly i am awaiting the GEFS, when does it come out?

[blizzard81]

As for this 'pub run' 18z GFS thing: to my knowledge the only difference between 06z / 18z runs and those initiated at 00z / 12z by NOAA is absence of US radiosonde network data input. In any event of course, thIs single run output remains unconvincing until we see better continuity.

Are you saying that this missing data is not all that crucial?

[Gowon]

Nov/Dec was a once in a 100 years event. It's a shame to see some "respected" posters alluding to it, especially from the 18z of all things! It really is a shame when this thread loses all sense of reason between October & March every year & for some reason, this year seems even worse than usual.

Oh stop being so grumpy!!!

[bradymk]

GFS 18z control run is not bad either so far to my untrained eye, great run from the GFS, lets hope for a bit more agreement and consistency over the next few days.

[crimsonp]

100% snow risk is kinda like saying it's going to happen.... well, at least for a little while

[Met4Cast]

100% snow risk is kinda like saying it's going to happen.... well, at least for a little while

IF this run were to verify of course. I don't like those charts, they're not very good! Especially not beyond two days.

Edited November 12, 2012 by Daniel AKA WMD

[TEITS]

Are you saying that this missing data is not all that crucial?

I think im right in saying that out of all the GFS model runs the 12Z is most accurate followed by the 0Z. This doesn't mean the 18Z is wrong though and I hope this continues in future outputs.

[Eskimo]

100% snow risk is kinda like saying it's going to happen.... well, at least for a little while

Problem is, its not really a probability map, it just means that if things were to fall into place then that particular area will be guaranteed snow.

[offerman]

As for this 'pub run' 18z GFS thing: to my knowledge the only difference between 06z / 18z runs and those initiated at 00z / 12z by NOAA is absence of US radiosonde network data input. In any event of course, thIs single run output remains unconvincing until we see better continuity.

Hi, are you the real Ian Ferguson off points west, or is this just a wind up? If it is then fair play to you and thanks for posting on here. How is Richard Anguin doing as havent seen him since he finished on P.W.

Anyway, the charts are looking fantastic, if only they can stay that way nearer to the time. Still , certainly something to get us all buzzing.