Model Output Discussion 12z 07/11/2012

[phil nw.]

A brand new thread then for continuing discussion with the 12z outputs imminent.

Please stay on topic.

If your views don`t refer to the model data but you wish to express general views or hopes then please visit the other Winter threads.

Thanks all.

[phil nw.]

Just to get things rolling-a look at the 00z London ens for both ECM/GFS temps at 2mtrs.

Nothing dramatic really signs of a few less cold days next week before they fall back again later.

Edited November 7, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Current model output shouldn't really come as too much of a surprise given polar heights were progged to start falling weeks ago as advertised by a couple of longer range modelling tools & cooling strat. Much of the same as we head through November. I remain sceptical of any prolonged colder interludes through rest of this month into December; although GPs thoughts remain of interest, if not necessarily how I think things will play out. Biggest risk of wintry weather possibly pm incursions towards back end of month via lessening of negative heights to our NW and a more NW-SE alligned jet IMO. HP to the east *appears* to be red herring at the moment, possibly in response to rapid snowbuild over Russia.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Quick summary: In general, the models seem to be in good agreement for the next few days (including the beginning part of the 12Z GFS run). Some spells of rain/showery weather likely in the North with the pressure lower in those areas. Drier, brighter weather likely to the South with higher pressure to the South having more of a role in those parts. However, a brief spell of rain looks to rush in from the West affecting many parts during Friday according to the GFS UK Precipitation charts. Should feel reasonably mild with winds backing in a Westerly(ish) direction for the next few days or so, although everywhere should become cooler during the weekend with some sort of Polar Maritime airflow occurring. Maybe possibly cold enough for a wintry flavour to any showers in the North, but any sleet/snow would be likely be restricted to hills.

[MKN]

although GPs thoughts remain of interest... You not interested in the fact the metoffice are saying well below average temps in there long range forecasts aswell. I think there maybe some changes to the output over the next week to show possibilities that could lead to that scenario. Of course all speculative at best at so far out but unusual to hear the met say well below average.

[January Snowstorm]

12Z GFS rolling out and positive developments with the trough over UK digging further South next week.

Hence the Scandi high that bit closer, have to say Europe looking very mild though for the foreseeable which would surely conter act any proper cold.

Still an improvment on 06zrun

[Frosty.]

I think there maybe some changes to the output over the next week to show possibilities that could lead to that scenario. Of course all speculative at best at so far out but unusual to hear the met say well below average.

I think there are some signs already, the gfs ens mean today shows pressure building from the south and east which would probably then build over the uk later in the month with increasing fog and frost risk, the low will fill and move away sometime and the pressure rise from the south and east should do the trick but not until another 10-15 days of trough dominance.

[Cheshire Freeze]

For those of us wanting cold and snow, more charts like this would be welcome.....dispersal of vortex and the pattern becoming very amplified again......

[andymusic]

Patience patience patience - still too early - lots of windy cool stormy stuff on the models - typical autmn stuff - wait a further 7 - 10 days - should start to see the beginning of winter brewing then!

[EML Network]

I sometimes wonder if people are so blinkered towards looking for a potential cold outbreak that the completely ignore what is staring them in the face.

The NAO updates keep getting worse and worse from a cold point of view, today's update puts us in a very + NAO outlook, with the majority of the ensembles members keeping it into the + right through until the end of the forecast period.

Not only that, but High pressure is clearly building South of the UK, covering a huge swathe of Europe as we get into the later stages of the run, something that has been showing, run after run after run after run and yet it seems to be completely ignored by some.

Sorry, I don't mean to come on here and "Have a pop" at people, it's just I sometimes feel people look at things with rose tinted glasses and are just setting themselves up for disappointment further down the line, when all along the obvious has been staring them in the face.

That being said I hope things so start to change soon towards a colder outlook, because I am fearing the worst this winter, I dare not mention the evil word that begins with a "B" and ends in a "T" and is something centered over Europe, but you'd be silly not to dismiss the possibility especially given the recent outputs

[bradymk]

I sometimes wonder if people are so blinkered towards looking for a potential cold outbreak that the completely ignore what is staring them in the face.

The NAO updates keep getting worse and worse from a cold point of view, today's update puts us in a very + NAO outlook, with the majority of the ensembles members keeping it into the + right through until the end of the forecast period.

Not only that, but High pressure is clearly building South of the UK, covering a huge swathe of Europe as we get into the later stages of the run, something that has been showing, run after run after run after run and yet it seems to be completely ignored by some.

Sorry, I don't mean to come on here and "Have a pop" at people, it's just I sometimes feel people look at things with rose tinted glasses and are just setting themselves up for disappointment further down the line, when all along the obvious has been staring them in the face.

That being said I hope things so start to change soon towards a colder outlook, because I am fearing the worst this winter, I dare not mention the evil word that begins with a "B" and ends in a "T" and is something centered over Europe, but you'd be silly not to dismiss the possibility especially given the recent outputs

Hope you don't mind me saying but I disagree with this. Yes the model output isn't great at the moment if your a coldie but I can't see the high pressure building to the south covering all of the UK and most of Europe in this run. I would say that this run is far better with the latter charts alot better than previous runs with a more amplified pattern. I think we have to wait at least a week or so before we can call the end of the month with any confidence but yes next two weeks look unsettled and milder but I don't think anyone can really write off end of the month/beginning of december yet.

[snowblues]

From my untrained eye,going through the 12z gfs run from around 192 / 204 frame it looked like a easterly outbreak.Could that not be atrend,if the lows to the west are over played.

[snowstorm445]

I sometimes wonder if people are so blinkered towards looking for a potential cold outbreak that the completely ignore what is staring them in the face.

The NAO updates keep getting worse and worse from a cold point of view, today's update puts us in a very + NAO outlook, with the majority of the ensembles members keeping it into the + right through until the end of the forecast period.

Not only that, but High pressure is clearly building South of the UK, covering a huge swathe of Europe as we get into the later stages of the run, something that has been showing, run after run after run after run and yet it seems to be completely ignored by some.

Sorry, I don't mean to come on here and "Have a pop" at people, it's just I sometimes feel people look at things with rose tinted glasses and are just setting themselves up for disappointment further down the line, when all along the obvious has been staring them in the face.

That being said I hope things so start to change soon towards a colder outlook, because I am fearing the worst this winter, I dare not mention the evil word that begins with a "B" and ends in a "T" and is something centered over Europe, but you'd be silly not to dismiss the possibility especially given the recent outputs

Incorrect. The NAO is hardly "very +", its looking neutral at best in the coming weeks (look at the 14 day chart):

It is well known that November is the most zonal month of the year, hence why most windstorms occur in the Late Autumn and Early Winter. What we are seeing is a very unusual November in fact, and it is returning only to average really. There is an Azores High but not much of a Bartlett High as far as I can see.

Nearly every November I can think of has been zonal, at least most of it, even the ones preceding cold winters, like 2009/2010. It is hardly a shock to the system that we are seeing it again this year (much later and in much less strength than last year, mind you).

If anything, you appear to be looking through extremely mild-tinted glasses. Mild weather in November is absolutely not indicative of the weather further down the line.

Edited November 7, 2012 by snowstorm445

[latitude]

I sometimes wonder if people are so blinkered towards looking for a potential cold outbreak that the completely ignore what is staring them in the face.

The NAO updates keep getting worse and worse from a cold point of view, today's update puts us in a very + NAO outlook, with the majority of the ensembles members keeping it into the + right through until the end of the forecast period.

Not only that, but High pressure is clearly building South of the UK, covering a huge swathe of Europe as we get into the later stages of the run, something that has been showing, run after run after run after run and yet it seems to be completely ignored by some.

Sorry, I don't mean to come on here and "Have a pop" at people, it's just I sometimes feel people look at things with rose tinted glasses and are just setting themselves up for disappointment further down the line, when all along the obvious has been staring them in the face.

That being said I hope things so start to change soon towards a colder outlook, because I am fearing the worst this winter, I dare not mention the evil word that begins with a "B" and ends in a "T" and is something centered over Europe, but you'd be silly not to dismiss the possibility especially given the recent outputs

I havent seen anyone here posting that a cold spell is on the way, far from it. Some people have been mentioning cold because we are heading into winter and GP's video update shows how all the back ground signals are pointing towards something possibly wintry in the future. People are looking for trends, they always will whether its summmer or winter.

If the background signals are correct the a change in model output could happen in the next couple of weeks, so why cant people talk about that?

This thread would be damm boring if people only discussed the nailed 72hr period and as you say 'whats staring themselves in the face'.

Trends is the word and that's outside 144 for me.

[Alex]

EML is right -

* cooler than average stratosphere, unattactive for cold lovers as it can lower heights to the north (PV).

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

* rising angular momentum - although low it is rising and for pressure to rise to our north - angular momentum should be low, rising am may encourage lower heights again.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltotaam.sig.90day.gif

* mjo heading into it's central core - so technically could rule this out if the GFS is correct.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

The link below shows exactly where I think we are heading for the medium term ie 10-15 days, lower heights to the north , high pressure to the south but not quite a Bartlett scenairo, similar to current spell of cold zonal with maybe some milder interludes. December may become different but not yet on this evidence!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.html

Edited November 7, 2012 by Alex

[bradymk]

These latter charts of the GFS 12z run aren't too bad at all, correct me if I am wrong. Both OP and control runs above show a return to a more amplified pattern with a weaker vortex again at the end of their runs. I know its deep FI but hopefully following runs will continue to show this. A while off yet I know and I feel the next week will show whether we are more likely to see a milder pattern persist or a change to colder conditions again come end of month.

[fergieweather]

I think "fearing the worst this winter" has opposite meaning for many, who will be more than happy if it's mild & essentially non-descript! The model thread does seem to have an awful lot of cold-seeking / cold-wishing bias, which might be better served on other parts of the forum? Surely model discussion should be focused solely neutrally on the potentIal outcomes, rather than a wish-list for specific weather type? Just my thoughts... cheers!

[Frosty.]

I sometimes wonder if people are so blinkered towards looking for a potential cold outbreak that the completely ignore what is staring them in the face.

The NAO updates keep getting worse and worse from a cold point of view, today's update puts us in a very + NAO outlook, with the majority of the ensembles members keeping it into the + right through until the end of the forecast period.

Sorry, I don't mean to come on here and "Have a pop" at people, it's just I sometimes feel people look at things with rose tinted glasses and are just setting themselves up for disappointment further down the line, when all along the obvious has been staring them in the face.

That being said I hope things so start to change soon towards a colder outlook, because I am fearing the worst this winter, I dare not mention the evil word that begins with a "B" and ends in a "T" and is something centered over Europe, but you'd be silly not to dismiss the possibility especially given the recent outputs

There is nothing mild in the outlook, only near average but mainly just below average, the same period last year was endless sw'ly mush but not this year, the ens mean keeps us cool and unsettled and sometimes rather cold and the meto persist with that idea and for a colder end to the month and early december.

[bluearmy]

the GFS op and control both trend to collapse the low heights on the canadian side of the pole through the latter stages of week 2. so far out it means nothing but the naefs fi continues to build a blocking anomoly in the vicinity of greenland. all seems very depressed on here considering its november and the weather looks like being 'novemberish'. maybe take a look back at the archive charts for nov 2009 and 2010.

[Harve]

Incorrect. The NAO is hardly "very +", its looking neutral at best in the coming weeks (look at the 14 day chart):

If anything, you appear to be looking through extremely mild-tinted glasses. Mild weather in November is absolutely not indicative of the weather further down the line.

No, it would appear you're looking through cold-tinted glasses. The NAO forecast is not 'neutral at best', on the first graph* all members point to a moderately positive outcome for the next week, later trending towards neutral but with just four of them opting for varying degrees of -NAO.

Further down the line, that can of course all change - EML isn't suggesting that November mildness (which earlier you were denying as being likely!) guarantees any sort of weather further down the line. It's rather the stratosphere's November weather, rather than the UK's weather, which is (strongly) indicative of the UK's weather further down the line, though of course still doesn't give anything close to definite.

*I've never paid attention to the three graphs below, no matter what they're showing. What exactly is the difference between them and the top graph, and why are they showing fairly different outcomes?

edit: I do think there's a tendency in this forum to jump on anyone who suggests/points out the possibility of mildness, as if they're suggesting mildness will reign for months and months or as if they're suggesting it's a definite outcome rather than a possibility.

Edited November 7, 2012 by Harve

[snow1975]

With regards to the progged PV firing up, I can see positives in this. I don't want a cold November...ice, ducks, slush and muck et al.

We need a Polar Vortex for intense cold to develop up in the Arctic. Look at last winter, a strong PV unti mid January, then it broke down and just remember the intense cold pool that enveloped eastern Europe and Eurasia. Otherwise, a weak PV all winter wouldn't bring a severe cold spell to the UK because the cold air is diluted over vast areas of the mid latitudes.

[Bristawl Si]

It's only 7th November!!

[Ice BIast]

These latter charts of the GFS 12z run aren't too bad at all, correct me if I am wrong. Both OP and control runs above show a return to a more amplified pattern with a weaker vortex again at the end of their runs. I know its deep FI but hopefully following runs will continue to show this. A while off yet I know and I feel the next week will show whether we are more likely to see a milder pattern persist or a change to colder conditions again come end of month.

Its interesting that both of those charts show the core of the vortex moving to siberia. Lets hope that they are on to something as that would open the door to high latitude blocking on our side of the NH.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well, at least ECMWF heads into the colder territory into early Dec, as mentioned in latest UKMO 30d update... temp anomaly attached here but I dare say this EC prognosis already discussed at length!

That chart screams blocking to the north, the only way I can envisage a warmer than average Greenland and a colder than average UK. Will it come off? Who knows!

Edited November 7, 2012 by CreweCold

[fergieweather]

PS The EC anomaly prog remains strongly in tune with its previous output into the same period.