Scotland Regional Discussion

[Soaring Hawk]

Oh my....

Oh my indeed. Oh my, Oh my, Ohhh my!! Surely the Christian Grey of the day?

Ahem...

Carry on, you erudite chaps.

(BBC1 weather just had Glasgow at -1 under fog with definite talk of snow for some Friday into Saturday)

[LomondSnowstorm]

Some very odd happenings in FI on the GFS. First we get an easterly flow from an extratropical cyclone:

Then the PV heads over Greenland:

But the sheer strength of it ensures it remains cold throughout:

Odd run.

[lorenzo]

With 4 or 5 cold blocks round half the hemisphere am not surprised it is throwing up the weird stuff.

That sub tropical low is a strange one. Good example of GFS toying with the idea of a rex block.

Edited November 27, 2012 by lorenzo

[Soaring Hawk]

It seems safer to ask the question in here - what is that tropical/sub tropical low doing this late in the year? (I thought I was hallucinating when I saw it, or maybe that's just caused by the manic depressive atmosphere of the model thread.)

[edo]

Bit hard to tell - am presuming it's porn as it doesn't display on my screen! (might also explain why several people like it...)

It might be considered food porn to koreans

[Guest]

Hi fellow Scottish weather friends, beautiful day on the tail of the bank. The light at this time of year is simply stunning.

Thank the maker for this thread the MT is just plain crazy at the mo , will it won't it is it 2010 ,etc

Anyhow, I await the first lamppost evening

Keep up the good work

I haven't heard anyone call it the tail o' the bank for years, see trying to explain that one to people :lol:

[lorenzo]

It seems safer to ask the question in here - what is that tropical/sub tropical low doing this late in the year? (I thought I was hallucinating when I saw it, or maybe that's just caused by the manic depressive atmosphere of the model thread.)

Not a scooby doo !!

[edo]

It's hurricane bawbags sister Tropical Tramp

Maybe as the weather models so straightforward they thought just freshen it up a bit to keep everyone on their toes

[Hairy Celt]

It might be considered food porn to koreans

Now I am truly baffled. Bedtime.

[LomondSnowstorm]

It seems safer to ask the question in here - what is that tropical/sub tropical low doing this late in the year? (I thought I was hallucinating when I saw it, or maybe that's just caused by the manic depressive atmosphere of the model thread.)

Maybe it's related to SSTs: the Atlantic is mostly well above average but there's quite a high temperature gradient around the Azores area:

You can still get tropical storms in late November and even December, just much less frequently (the most in any November was 3 in 2005, and for Decembers it's two).

[LomondSnowstorm]

Now this does look interesting:

Cheers to scottishandy on the MT for reminding us that this was out.

+120 requires a bit of a harder analysis but the lack of an Iceland shortwave and a reasonably sharp looking trajectory is quite nice:

[edo]

I like the look of that trough on Saturday pity only Tuesday ....a lot going on in the 120 will await analysis of its belternessniss

[scottishandy]

How does the fax compare to UKMO raw LSS? My eye is not yet trained enough to spot the differences .

[Guest]

Now this does look interesting:

Cheers to scottishandy on the MT for reminding us that this was out.

+120 requires a bit of a harder analysis but the lack of an Iceland shortwave and a reasonably sharp looking trajectory is quite nice:

Saturday's FAX looks interesting as you say LS, is it just me or is the 528 line further west than on the previous FAX (yesterday's +120)?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Saturday's FAX looks interesting as you say LS, is it just me or is the 528 line further west than on the previous FAX (yesterday's +120)?

I think you're right actually, everything seems to keep shifting slightly west on a day by day basis, and if it weren't for the pesky shortwaves east of Iceland (which weren't really picked up on until about 48 hours ago) there'd really be nothing stopping some really deep cold getting our way by about days 5-6. However, that ship has sailed and in its place may come something even better. Certainly no lack of cold and snow opportunities on the charts tonight.

How does the fax compare to UKMO raw LSS? My eye is not yet trained enough to spot the differences .

It looks almost identical really, as Nick was saying that +120 chart looks like it should lead to a better +144 chart than the UKMO actually has, but then that's also the case with the UKMO raw output itself.

[DR(S)NO]

Hopefully we are heading into an exciting winter season .

Early doors ,but looks like some snow potential for late Sunday and the early hours of Monday 3rd.Hopefully I'm reading the charts correctly.

[Guest]

Hopefully we are heading into an exciting winter season .

Early doors ,but looks like some snow potential for late Sunday and the early hours of Monday 3rd.Hopefully I'm reading the charts correctly.

Aye, looks like a reasonable chance to me too.

Fairly doomish and gloomish on the MT thread this morning, but as someone pointed out to LS overnight "you live in Scotland"... that did make me laugh.

Edited November 28, 2012 by CatchMyDrift

[Guest]

ECM 00z is a bit of a stinker, but it does seem to go a bit funny trying to deal with the (tropical depression?) wee low in the mid-Atlantic here:

Actually, is it just me or does the GFS 00z deal with it in a fairly similar manner?

Edited November 28, 2012 by CatchMyDrift

[lorenzo]

Nice early morning fax from the Meto. at a glance 528 dam air line in good position, decaying front and a trough travelling through.

Radars tweaked, lamp posts at the ready. Let battle commence !

[blitzen]

Morning peeps A chilly and frosty one it is too - currently -0.6oc. I see Paul locked the MOD thread and started a new one because of the usual doomsday posts He's flogging a dead horse there I think! People need to be patient as these are really good charts for the time of year. Give it a couple of weeks yet and I am sure we will be amongst some really great synoptics. Stewart's winter forecast was really uplifting, well explained and his thoughts well supported.

Edited November 28, 2012 by Blitzen

[Guest]

Oooo, this little site looks like fun:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/tkfaxbraar.htm

Every FAX chart since 1998, why am I so happy to find this?!

[Guest]

Honestly, which one would you pick? Having said that we did have snow at the start of December last year...

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Certainly fax time with snaw appearing in the reliable.

Beyond that the models will continue to flip - while lots of potential, lets hope they flip back again towards something more like yesterdays 12Z ECM. I'd love to see some block retrogression towards greenland...

Really are tantalising synoptics given we're not even quite in December yet.

Every FAX chart since 1998, why am I so happy to find this?!

Under normal circumstances / among the civilian population, that would be considered weird. On here, perfectly normal.

[BleakMidwinter]

I'm gonna make my fortune - you know how all those women spend tons of money trying to look younger than they are? All I have to do is work out how to pass on BleakMidwinterness to them, and then dangle the prospect of SNAW tantalisingly before them, and hey presto they get younger!

Last week I was in my early 40s, like usual. Over the last few days, I've come steadily down and the moment that first snowflake drifts past the lamp-post I'll be a hyper-excited ten-year-old!

Snaw! Want SNAW!!! gimme snaw!!!!!

Mibbees dry - naw!

Mibbees snaaaaaw!

(Normal service will be resumed once it goes back to milder uppers and no beasterly-prospect)

[November13]

The BBC weather. Showed snow for central Scotland on Friday. Met office say a few showers and then dry. A lot of guess work going on with the two fronts and the squeeze in the middle. I don't think we will know until Thursday night fingers crossed.

Some snow on the Ochills last night and today. Nice to see at last.