Scotland Regional Discussion

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

"mibbees dry mibbees snaw"?

I'll get my coat.

[king.module]

What's that? The ability to spam with the best of them? In my defence I have been on here for almost eight years now, so it's only about three posts a day on average.

beats my 8 years and 5 posts (lol) (just retreated in here for some sanity from the model thread...imagine my supprise when i came across "mibbees dry mibbees snaw". )

..

that's it as you were... etc

[edo]

You should be a politician CMD....I spent an hour in a meeting there bored and trying to pick holes in your theory but I am convinced that is now an acceptable amount of posts!!

Welcome in King... if chat about vasectomies, animal forecasting and attractiveness of weather forecasters is your thing then you have arrived in the right thread........ a bit more detail on your location would be helpful.... thats a rather large area you have given your location as....unless of course you are the naked rambler.... however i tend to think thats probably Hairy Celt

Edited November 26, 2012 by edodfc

[Guest]

beats my 8 years and 5 posts (lol) (just retreated in here for some sanity from the model thread...imagine my supprise when i came across "mibbees dry mibbees snaw". )

..

that's it as you were... etc

You should whack in a few more posts k.m as we're always up for a good banter. It helps to mention the weather now and again but it's not a requirement.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Jeez, never pulled a model watching all nighter until last night. Spending eight hours in the model thread is about as close to psychological torture as I think I'm willing to go and I think I stopped making sense half way through. Anyway, The gist of it is that the real issue is still the whole negative/positive tilt of the low off the eastern USA. At this range it's probably best to look at the US side of things:

UKMO:

Deep and negative.

GFS:

Deep and neutral/slightly positive.

ECM is neutral also but isn't on that site so I won't add it. The reason the ECM is ok today is because it deepens the low more quickly than yesterday and sends it up to Western Greenland. So then it appears to be fairly split on how this will go, right? What if I told you there was an equivalent to the NMM, a mesoscale model for the US that goes all the way up to +84 hours. You'd have to side with whatever it was saying, right? Well here it is, the NAM, our new best friend.

Deep and negative. And that's why my money lies more closely with the UKMO modelling of this than the ECM and certainly more than the GFS.

Anyway, after this point it's likely we'll have some kind of cold spell from the northeast before the 'Atlantic' finally does manage to make inroads. At this stage though it looks more likely that energy will go under rather than over the top of the block, which would mean a lot of battleground events, and if Scotland can stay on the northern side of the Polar Frontal Jet then we could be in for a very snowy first ten days of December. Long term still looks good for cold, check GP's outlook on the Model Thread, and things are shaping up nicely.

[Guest]

You should be a politician CMD....I spent an hour in a meeting there bored and trying to pick holes in your theory but I am convinced that is now an acceptable amount of posts!!

Welcome in King... if chat about vasectomies, animal forecasting and attractiveness of weather forecasters is your thing then you have arrived in the right thread........ a bit more detail on your location would be helpful.... thats a rather large area you have given your location as....unless of course you are the naked rambler.... however i tend to think thats probably Hairy Celt

Superb, I love it when people think about NW and the people on here in "real life".

I never got in on the vasectomy chat yesterday, all I can say is don't do it. Trust me

Hairy Celt is the naked rambler? That explains a lot

[edo]

LS you deserve some form of honour for an all nighter in the MT and then producing such an interesting synopsis above....I see the latest meto update kinda lends itself to the atlanttic fighting in and battleground scenarios.... you should take up this forecasting lark!!

UK Outlook for Saturday 1 Dec 2012 to Monday 10 Dec 2012:

Wintry showers are expected to affect some eastern areas on Saturday with snow on hills, possibly to low levels in the north. Elsewhere, largely dry and fine, but cold with the risk of frost, icy patches and overnight freezing fog. By Sunday, rain may spread into the far west, preceded by snow, mainly over higher ground. There is a lot of uncertainty for the remainder of the period but it is likely that northern and eastern areas remain cold with wintry showers for some. Elsewhere, it will probably become milder, at least for a time, but also more unsettled, with rain and hill snow accompanied by stronger winds. Later in the period, colder but drier conditions may become re-established across the UK, with frost and icy patches for many.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

People should of course remember that more marginal / battleground scenarios are generally the ones that deliver snaw in more copious amounts and more widely....

-15 C is all very well, but then pipes start bursting, car screenwash turns into a big ice cube, salt becomes useless etc...

Personally, I like a good dump (of snow) followed by clear, crispy conditions of maybe -5 C.

Edited November 26, 2012 by scottish skier

[Guest]

LS you deserve some form of honour for an all nighter in the MT and then producing such an interesting synopsis above....I see the latest meto update kinda lends itself to the atlanttic fighting in and battleground scenarios.... you should take up this forecasting lark!!

Once I'm president of Scotland I'll pull a few strings and install LS as Lord Commander Weather Chief.

People should of course remember that more marginal / battleground scenarios are generally the ones that deliver snaw in more copious amounts and more widely....

-15 C is all very well, but then pipes start bursting, car screenwash turns into a big ice cube, salt becomes useless etc...

Personally, I like a good dump (of snow) followed by clear, crispy conditions of maybe -5 C.

I think it was Dec 2010 that we sat night after night giving it "ooo, it's -14ºC" which got very boring very quickly. Give me marginal snow chances any day of the week as that's where the excitement is for me.

[edo]

Once I'm president of Scotland I'll pull a few strings and install LS as Lord Commander Weather Chief.

I think it was Dec 2010 that we sat night after night giving it "ooo, it's -14ºC" which got very boring very quickly. Give me marginal snow chances any day of the week as that's where the excitement is for me.

Mixed feelings about this.... I am on LPG so costs me the GDP of an eastern european country to run my heating in a severe cold spell and my boiler failed too so had some pain but it was incredible to see how low temperatures could go and watch to see if records could tumble. It was amazing aswell to see the variations...reguarly -1 or -2 in Dundee and then it would be between -14 to -16 23 miles inland at surrounding rural areas of Perth. I also enjoyed the night It appeared as though sparkling diamonds were hovering in the air although I cant recall what this phenomenon actually was. All things considered though I would go for ice days at a simple -2 to keep most of the snow cover here although ideally would have around 4 1 week long snowfest events with not much inbetween.....actually scrap all that after last year I would take 1 major snowfall and a couple of days sledging with the kids!!

[lorenzo]

Ouch ! 2 bottles of red celebrating - much broken today. A great reminder of why I never bother with drinking!! Waiting for brain to come to life.

New washing machine installed , except the idiots have put the water pipe on back to front! This created a shortwave in the pipe, had to take it out turn the water off put it on the other way round.

Aaargh - hangovers !!!

[king.module]

if chat about vasectomies, animal forecasting and attractiveness of weather forecasters is your thing then you have arrived in the right thread........ a bit more detail on your location would be helpful.... thats a rather large area you have given your location as....unless of course you are the naked rambler.... however i tend to think thats probably Hairy Celt

Attractive Animals forecasting vasectomies...shirly there's a law against that?

this talk of vasectomies reminded me of the Amazon ‘veet for men’ review page (was doing the rounds a while back so you might have seen it?) - Still makes me cringe... but raises a chuckle or two

have updated my profile loc (though i would hate to be stalked by the naked rambler... luckily i have me Veet ready in case he does turn out to be somewhat hairy)

And as for mentioning the weather now and again... well we’ll see... love to model watch (any time of year really) and read other people opinions on the subject but I don’t think my skills would add much to the debate...so ermm..... It’s raining here and later in the week it mibbees dry.... it mibees snaw.

(and with you on the heatings cost - £700 of heating oil put in the other week...had to get extra this year as the mother in law is coming mid Jan.... she lives in Lanzarote and thinks it gets 'cold' there come winter )

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Top of cairngorm looking snowy.

Mid station:

Showers down to car park level.

[lorenzo]

What a sunset tonight, sky looks amazing again !

[Guest]

What a sunset tonight, sky looks amazing again !

What's a sunset? Wall to wall grey cloud and rain down here :lol:

Much gnashing and wailing on the model thread with frame by frame commentaries while the GFS comes out...the thread will need to be hosed down later.

[Guest]

Somewhere's going to get a (brief?) pasting if the GFS 12z comes off. A lot of cold air to the east, warm and moist air off the Atlantic...

Then it's showers from the west, snow away from the coast and with any altitude.

Edited November 26, 2012 by CatchMyDrift

[LomondSnowstorm]

Met Office were maybe a bit hasty to move away from their own model output this morning:

A much more favourable looking battleground to follow for next week too:

My money remains on the UKMO.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Somewhere's going to get a (brief?) pasting if the GFS 12z comes off. A lot of cold air to the east, warm and moist air off the Atlantic...

Then it's showers from the west, snow away from the coast and with any altitude.

The GFS is close to being fantastic, just a slightly better angle and a slower jet and we'd be looking at something akin to the UKMO. The issue with it as it is is the warm sector with uppers above 0C which kills any chance of proper frontal snow:

[edo]

the model thread is like listening to footy on the radio....you are getting a running commentary but in reality you dont have a flecking clue what is going on until it actually happens...ie a goal is scored or in this case the weather actually arrives

It looks like a classic battleground is shaping up which i only enjoy if its snow that then hangs around for a day at least...hate it when snow turns to rain without even getting to enjoy it!!

Quality stuff King you are gonna fit right in.....I did read the VEET stuff by the way with my legs crossed and making ooooooh noises quite a lot

Edited November 26, 2012 by edodfc

[Guest]

The GFS is close to being fantastic, just a slightly better angle and a slower jet and we'd be looking at something akin to the UKMO. The issue with it as it is is the warm sector with uppers above 0C which kills any chance of proper frontal snow:

Where's the polar vortex?

[LomondSnowstorm]

The uppers across eastern Scotland at that point are somewhere in the region of -12/-13C. It may be slack but with those uppers that would be guaranteed snowmaggedon. The battleground on this one would be pretty one sided since energy would really struggle to get east and any that did would bring snow and an enhanced easterly flow, a set up that would be very tough to dislodge.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Where's the polar vortex?

Em, half of it's sitting over Siberia while the rest is heading out of the Davis strait into the Atlantic, I reckon. Anyone talking about sustained +ve NAO or any +ve AO in the next fortnight is talking mince.

[edo]

Where's the polar vortex?

Is that a wheres wally type Question....

I certainly cannot spy it

Edit Thank goodness for LS...... looking forward to you circling it later and arrows showing whats happpening (hint hint)

[Guest]

Em, half of it's sitting over Siberia while the rest is heading out of the Davis strait into the Atlantic, I reckon. Anyone talking about sustained +ve NAO or any +ve AO in the next fortnight is talking mince.

Exactly, so even if the GFS 12z looks bad because the block is broken then it's not all bad down the line. Which is the point I was trying to make, badly

[LomondSnowstorm]

Exactly, so even if the GFS 12z looks bad because the block is broken then it's not all bad down the line. Which is the point I was trying to make, badly

I got it Since the PV isn't coming back any time soon we're never going to be far from a very cold solution.

Is that a wheres wally type Question....

I certainly cannot spy it

Edit Thank goodness for LS...... looking forward to you circling it later and arrows showing whats happpening (hint hint)

Sure, nothing more enjoyable than getting Windows Paint out and scribbling some lines over the pressure charts.