Scotland Regional Discussion

[LomondSnowstorm]

Of course IF - jump in.

Am loving the model thread tonight - ECM was crap - so it turns into an episode of Corrie.

Ian Brown - Winter is over - Long Live the even larger teapot ( he had been doing so well too...)

Steve Murr - WE ARE IN THE LAP OF THE GODS.

Brilliant stuff

Problem being in our wee weather NWP world ECM is God.

A great post by Gaelforce in the model thread, lost to the masses as it all went Pete Tong reminding everyone of the ECM loving a wobble.

Am glad I have been following the Strat thread and not slavishly on board with every wee operational run. Some great things happening in there just now that of course bode well for winter..

Yeah, again even from the ECM we're not in a write off position by any means, I mean we have -4/-5C uppers over us, blocking over the Arctic and it's only the 5th of December. Longer term either way looks good, shorter term it's a massive drama between the ECM and UKMO, and that's where we're at.

The MT is hilarious, spend too long in there and you'd think that the ECM was backing up the Mayan calendar's 21st December prediction.

[Isolated Frost]

The strat thread is what this forum is about- great minds from all over the world with really intelligent posts- it's a melting pot of the creme de la creme.

If I want to be in the know- I'll look at the strat thread, the technical model thread and then here- because it's the last corner of sanity you can get when the coldies and mildies and what have you collide in the MT.

It's really the atmosphere vs. computer models- and the atmosphere is my bet... watching out for the FAX and FAX alone- time to say 'NO' or 'bin' the NWP, not just the 6z or the ECM or what have you

[lorenzo]

If the weather models are bogging you down - don't worry comical relief is at hand from J Buffet, ha ha ha ha ha ha - what a thread title LOL!!!

You can expect to see Ms CC in their very soon :)

[LomondSnowstorm]

If the weather models are bogging you down - don't worry comical relief is at hand from J Buffet, ha ha ha ha ha ha - what a thread title LOL!!!

http://forum.netweat...her-presenters/

You can expect to see Ms CC in their very soon

Well how could you not put her in there?! I'm sure we once had a whole Scottish thread that ended up being entirely about her

[LomondSnowstorm]

Excellent LS, just the summary I wanted to read All looking good at this stage isn't it... I'll take all the usual caveats on board about uppers, wind direction, sea temps, dew-points, snow-shadows and all the rest. But all things being equal its does seem that we are on the way to something resembling late-Nov / Dec 2009. Bring it on !

Edit: fair to say for most that have hung about this place that we all know what to expect at a local level. We can reasonably expect convective snow in the east, central belt forth-clyde streamers and all the rest...

Didn't see this until now, of course this is all true UNLESS the ECM is right, which is an unfortunate caveat that we have to make now. But yes, if we can get over that we could well be looking at something akin to that, and just as hard to shift.

[lorenzo]

OVERALL FAVOR A BLEND AMONG THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEFS MEAN ALOFT GIVEN

VARIOUS QUESTION MARKS IN THE NAM/GFS/CMC. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN

SUFFICIENTLY VARIABLE OVER RECENT DAYS TO FAVOR A WRN ATLC SFC LOW

A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF... AS PER A UKMET/GEFS MEAN/00Z

ECMWF COMPROMISE.

Found this on the NOAA update for the end of Sunday, someone is still there ! Bit in old may provide a clue to the 00z output

[LomondSnowstorm]

OVERALL FAVOR A BLEND AMONG THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEFS MEAN ALOFT GIVEN

VARIOUS QUESTION MARKS IN THE NAM/GFS/CMC. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN

SUFFICIENTLY VARIABLE OVER RECENT DAYS TO FAVOR A WRN ATLC SFC LOW

A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF... AS PER A UKMET/GEFS MEAN/00Z

ECMWF COMPROMISE.

Found this on the NOAA update for the end of Sunday, someone is still there ! Bit in old may provide a clue to the 00z output

Now that is very good news, once again the guidance and composites seem to take the more favourable side from our perspective.

Anyway, looks like the tie breaker of the ensembles has failed:

Next up, Ian Brown and Steve Murr draw straws to decide which solution wins down the pub run. A thrilling night ahead.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I didn't consider the ECM as particularly bad. Not too dissimilar from the last run.

No perfect, but it still shows a hugely disrupted polar vortex with bits wobbling off all over the place throughout (as is the general cross-model theme) rather than a monster of one plonked over Greenland giving us raging Atlantic lows one after another. Instead immediately more chilly/hillsnowy with lots of potential.

For late November, things looking great. We've basically the whole winter ahead of us.

Edited November 25, 2012 by scottish skier

[NUT]

If the weather models are bogging you down - don't worry comical relief is at hand from J Buffet, ha ha ha ha ha ha - what a thread title LOL!!!

http://forum.netweat...her-presenters/

You can expect to see Ms CC in their very soon

She's there already

[lorenzo]

Saw a post on Twitter last night citing that the GFS 18z trended towards the ECM 12z. Can't say this is something I have ever noticed, or looked for.

Always have seen the 18z GFS as a night cap run where anything could happen .. in case anyone wants some advice on any model watching just follow the 12z from day to day and all the rest for fun !

[cscrim]

can't say its something i have heard before Lorenzo but might be worth keeping eye on.

got to say the model thread has gone off the rails tonight and hardly worth the checking. will stick to this thread for a while. thanks to everyone for keeping it sensible in here with some great banter thrown in for good measure.

[Cheggers]

Lorenzo, I believe you started the CC chat earlier this year. started here and goes to page 37.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Latest model guidance calls for 'negatively tilted trough' i.e. southeast to northwest, off the eastern seaboard between +72 and +120.

ECM at +120:

UKMO at 120:

GFS at 120:

Taking the GFS and ECM as an example, why this matters:

ECM:

GFS:

Basically, the model guidance supports the snowy run rather than the less snowy one, is all.

Edited November 25, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Latest model guidance calls for 'negatively tilted trough' i.e. southeast to northwest, off the eastern seaboard between +72 and +120.

Aye, I asked mini Miss SS (P1) her opinion earlier and she annotated today's charts in a remarkably similar way.

Edited November 25, 2012 by scottish skier

[edo]

Basically, the model guidance supports the snowy run rather than the less snowy one, is all.

That is brilliant model analysis #laymanterms

[LomondSnowstorm]

That is brilliant model analysis #laymanterms

'Synoptic analysis suitable for ages 3 and over', that's my motto

[LomondSnowstorm]

Pub run so far. Pretty good.

[lorenzo]

Up to 108 GFS does exactly what NOAA says on the tin.

[LomondSnowstorm]

We're in the clear, for tonight at least. Don't count any chickens though, going to bed on a good pub run can lead to an awful hangover tomorrow morning.

[cscrim]

HC lol I was not gonna start that topic again unless there was horrible zonal weather for weeks on end but seen as u mentioned it I told Mrs Edo I had no intention of having the snip as heard a few horror stories and she was very supportive of the decision.......my problem now is she hinted she would be happy to hav a fourth and I most certainly am not so she could be playing me

solution is simple mate, after 4 kids myself and mrs S were in same situation. she got the coil i got spared the snip

Edited November 25, 2012 by cscrim

[Buriedundersnow]

britishweathersvs tweeted it's 50 years the coldest winter in 200 years. are we bout to repeat the act?

i replied is this just a random tweet or has something been seen

they replied its a moving feast always is stay tuned

does anyone think they have seen something or just having a little fun on twitter

[lorenzo]

Lorenzo, I believe you started the CC chat earlier this year. started here http://forum.netweat...00#entry2271171 and goes to page 37.

Ha hahahahhaha - guilty as charged LOL !

[Cheggers]

We're in the clear, for tonight at least. Don't count any chickens though, going to bed on a good pub run can lead to an awful hangover tomorrow morning.

It may be a roller-coaster at times but a damn sight safer than train spotting... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8683750.stm

[lorenzo]

Aye, I asked mini Miss SS (P1) her opinion earlier and she annotated today's charts in a remarkably similar way.

LOL - I asked Miss L P 6 - I got Dad, you're a geek whatevvvvvva...awsummmm

wish she was P1 again !

[LomondSnowstorm]

This is where the majorly significant frontal snow potential comes into play:

GFS has been bullish today on the undercut at this range. If that occurs we're almost certain to be on the right side of it. Relatively slack southerly flow too, which would help us here in the east who suffer from coastal marginality issues.