Scotland Regional Discussion

[Cheggers]

I see the Ochils are wearing a snow cap.

Edited November 25, 2012 by Cheggers

[LomondSnowstorm]

Very chilly next Wednesday:

[Northern Strath]

I'm on the Black Isle - recently moved closer to sea level than I was before so hoping I still see some decent snow! Couple of pics from New Years day 2010 just to get us in the mood (credit has to go to my Dad for these - he takes a good pic).

Thanks Kelly, enjoyed the pics too! the first one is a cracker! Here's to plenty more of those scenes in the very near future

Currently 2.4C, very misty, with the surronding hills totally hidden by a thick blanket of fog

[Benvironment]

Ooo that's interesting. Just looked at the Met Office forecast for Central & Tayside and it says this. Can't recall ever seeing them using exclamation marks and being so matter of fact about it.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Colder! Eastern areas catching showers which will turn increasingly wintry. Western areas drier and clearer but with night frosts forming. Strong North winds gradually easing.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Ooo that's interesting. Just looked at the Met Office forecast for Central & Tayside and it says this. Can't recall ever seeing them using exclamation marks and being so matter of fact about it.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Colder! Eastern areas catching showers which will turn increasingly wintry. Western areas drier and clearer but with night frosts forming. Strong North winds gradually easing.

They're being very bullish on their own model, and with good reason - the consistency its shown and the fact that it has really led the way for the other models along with constantly being back up by the MO's own MOGREPS and the ECM ensembles means that they have very high confidence in that outcome.

Which means this for +72:

Showers skirting down the east coast.

Roll that forward to Saturday and this is what looks closest to the truth:

Now once again using Sebastiaan's method of calculating uppers it would appear that the uppers coming onshore at that point are -9C, with -11C uppers just out in the North Sea, which is perfect for convective snowfall. How the flow works out and what the uppers are likely to be like isn't set in stone of course but at the moment, with broad cross model agreement so far, I'd be tempted to take whatever's coming out of the Met Office as gospel (until we get to the stage of arguing with them about convection, uppers etc.).

After Friday, the GFS doesn't put temperatures for inland Scotland at above 2C, at all, right up to +384.

This:;

is about as cold a chart as you could think of, and any shortwaves forming in the morass would give December 2009 type snowfall: completely non-marginal even with slight warm sectors.

Edited November 25, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[Cheggers]

One from Winter 10\11 while we await the fun and games

[Ross B]

The charts look amazing

Hope it doesn't go pear shaped this week, if they do I'll be...

Sorry, just wanted to use that!

[Sunny Leith]

Excellent LS, just the summary I wanted to read All looking good at this stage isn't it... I'll take all the usual caveats on board about uppers, wind direction, sea temps, dew-points, snow-shadows and all the rest. But all things being equal its does seem that we are on the way to something resembling late-Nov / Dec 2009. Bring it on !

Edit: fair to say for most that have hung about this place that we all know what to expect at a local level. We can reasonably expect convective snow in the east, central belt forth-clyde streamers and all the rest...

They're being very bullish on their own model, and with good reason - the consistency its shown and the fact that it has really led the way for the other models along with constantly being back up by the MO's own MOGREPS and the ECM ensembles means that they have very high confidence in that outcome.

Which means this for +72:

Showers skirting down the east coast.

Roll that forward to Saturday and this is what looks closest to the truth:

Now once again using Sebastiaan's method of calculating uppers it would appear that the uppers coming onshore at that point are -9C, with -11C uppers just out in the North Sea, which is perfect for convective snowfall. How the flow works out and what the uppers are likely to be like isn't set in stone of course but at the moment, with broad cross model agreement so far, I'd be tempted to take whatever's coming out of the Met Office as gospel (until we get to the stage of arguing with them about convection, uppers etc.).

After Friday, the GFS doesn't put temperatures for inland Scotland at above 2C, at all, right up to +384.

This:;

is about as cold a chart as you could think of, and any shortwaves forming in the morass would give December 2009 type snowfall: completely non-marginal even with slight warm sectors.

They're being very bullish on their own model, and with good reason - the consistency its shown and the fact that it has really led the way for the other models along with constantly being back up by the MO's own MOGREPS and the ECM ensembles means that they have very high confidence in that outcome.

Which means this for +72:

Showers skirting down the east coast.

Roll that forward to Saturday and this is what looks closest to the truth:

Now once again using Sebastiaan's method of calculating uppers it would appear that the uppers coming onshore at that point are -9C, with -11C uppers just out in the North Sea, which is perfect for convective snowfall. How the flow works out and what the uppers are likely to be like isn't set in stone of course but at the moment, with broad cross model agreement so far, I'd be tempted to take whatever's coming out of the Met Office as gospel (until we get to the stage of arguing with them about convection, uppers etc.).

After Friday, the GFS doesn't put temperatures for inland Scotland at above 2C, at all, right up to +384.

This:;

is about as cold a chart as you could think of, and any shortwaves forming in the morass would give December 2009 type snowfall: completely non-marginal even with slight warm sectors.

Edited November 25, 2012 by by-tor

[lorenzo]

Solid set of 850 temps here..

Building a ramp in anticipation of the ECM..

[NUT]

The fog has came down

[LomondSnowstorm]

Solid set of 850 temps here..

Building a ramp in anticipation of the ECM..

Not sure we'll be ramping the ECM tonight...

[edo]

Very true! sorry edodfc struggling to deicipher your user name to establish your football leanings?

*apologies for this rampant non-weather chat, promise to keep it brief

*Edit Here's a pic from my media archives of the Cairngorms from Loch Morlich in 2010 to add some weather relevance

Alas I am a Dundee fan ...go to all home games and occasional away ones...used to go to all before the kids although I have to thank them for lessening the amount of terrible football I have to endure

[lorenzo]

Nope, the ECM is not playing ball tonight !!! 96 hours for FI . It twists that North Pacific Low up ahead of the UKMO and GFS at 96 hours and it's all aboard the Atlantic train 48 hours later..

An infamous ECM wobble hopefully. Am certainly not going to hold it up with backing from the quoted nogaps . bom ... It's just one run.

Disheartening as a good ramp would have been a nice end to the weekend. The King is Dead ( ECM) Long live the King ( UKMO) !!

[Isolated Frost]

Nope, the ECM is not playing ball tonight !!! 96 hours for FI . It twists that North Pacific Low up ahead of the UKMO and GFS at 96 hours and it's all aboard the Atlantic train 48 hours later..

An infamous ECM wobble hopefully. Am certainly not going to hold it up with backing from the quoted nogaps . bom ... It's just one run.

Disheartening as a good ramp would have been a nice end to the weekend. The King is Dead ( ECM) Long live the King ( UKMO) !!

Or long live the CPC H5 anomalies?!

...and eventually the FAX

[LomondSnowstorm]

Or long live the CPC H5 anomalies?!

...and eventually the FAX

The Fax will be incredibly enlightening tonight, probably moreso than the last time we had one of these wobbles/dramatic shift away from apparent reality. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that the Fax is the most important chart of the whole day now. Forecaster guidance is really going to come into play here, because it is entirely plausible that the ECM is simply wrong.

[sn0wman]

Quite comical on the MT at times really. Love how Ian built up a bit of trust, with some more sensible posts earlier, and then throws out one of the most ridiculous posts ever. Not discounting the ECM obviously, but it doesn't really fit in with all the other signals, especially the CPC H5 anomalies.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Quite comical on the MT at times really. Love how Ian built up a bit of trust, with some more sensible posts earlier, and then throws out one of the most ridiculous posts ever. Not discounting the ECM obviously, but it doesn't really fit in with all the other signals, especially the CPC H5 anomalies.

Terry Michael Wood is really Ian Brown? Never! Couldn't possibly tell from the 'it's game over now' post.

The ECM, even as awful as it is, still has heights over the Arctic and actually from there we could still get to cold very easily:

In fact, it's pretty much cool zonality for the north of Scotland:

and looking at Greenland, there wouldn't be much stopping us reaching a colder solution past +240:

And we'd get there at about the same date as my winter forecast suggested!

All joking aside though I'd much prefer UKMO to be right. It's funny how you spend all this time patiently looking at height anomalies thinking everything's under control and then all of a sudden, when you think you're nearly there, it goes back to being a savage battle between one solution and another.

[Isolated Frost]

12z FAX at 72 is an improvement on yesterday's 12z- a more amplified trough, and the 528dm line nearer to the Shetlands- await 96 and 120 tonight.. I agree wrt human output being much more superior

Is it OK if I post more in here? The MT is like a melting pot for lunatics atm who seem to hate teleconnections and love computer models all of a sudden

[blitzen]

Pistols at dawn on the MOD thread I see! Certainly unexpected but 96hrs? and certainly goes against what the Met Office is predicting beyond the middle of the week. They appear very confident. Oh well, it will all come out in the wash I suppose. I just hope a pair of red knickers hasn't been thrown in with the whites!

Edited November 25, 2012 by Blitzen

[LomondSnowstorm]

12z FAX at 72 is an improvement on yesterday's 12z- a more amplified trough, and the 528dm line nearer to the Shetlands- await 96 and 120 tonight.. I agree wrt human output being much more superior

Is it OK if I post more in here? The MT is like a melting pot for lunatics atm who seem to hate teleconnections and love computer models all of a sudden

Haha, absolutely, I think I'm losing it a bit myself actually from being in there. I think TEITS' comment is correct: if the setups shown were reversed, you'd almost certainly back the UKMO/GFS/NAEFS/composites over the ECM because the UKMO/NAEFS/composites have been rock solid in support. Tonight's NAEFS is about as good as it has been all week so I think at worst we'll see some kind of compromise scenario with the mean trough over the UK and heights still high over Greenland with snow potential for the north.

[LomondSnowstorm]

They're being very bullish on their own model, and with good reason - the consistency its shown and the fact that it has really led the way for the other models along with constantly being back up by the MO's own MOGREPS and the ECM ensembles means that they have very high confidence in that outcome.

Which means this for +72:

Showers skirting down the east coast.

Roll that forward to Saturday and this is what looks closest to the truth:

Now once again using Sebastiaan's method of calculating uppers it would appear that the uppers coming onshore at that point are -9C, with -11C uppers just out in the North Sea, which is perfect for convective snowfall. How the flow works out and what the uppers are likely to be like isn't set in stone of course but at the moment, with broad cross model agreement so far, I'd be tempted to take whatever's coming out of the Met Office as gospel (until we get to the stage of arguing with them about convection, uppers etc.).

I'm sticking with my advice: if the Met Office goes with their own model tonight I would take them at their word, if not then we have trouble. UKMO has been very bullish, that's usually a good sign, especially when it's had the support of at least one model for most of the last few days. Let's see where we are this time tomorrow.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Is it OK if I post more in here?

Sure.

You'll be welcome here as much as you are on the Scottish politics thread.

http://www.thepoke.c...f-scotland-too/

Edited November 25, 2012 by scottish skier

[lorenzo]

Of course IF - jump in.

Am loving the model thread tonight - ECM was crap - so it turns into an episode of Corrie.

Ian Brown - Winter is over - Long Live the even larger teapot ( he had been doing so well too...)

Steve Murr - WE ARE IN THE LAP OF THE GODS.

Brilliant stuff

Problem being in our wee weather NWP world ECM is God.

A great post by Gaelforce in the model thread, lost to the masses as it all went Pete Tong reminding everyone of the ECM loving a wobble.

Am glad I have been following the Strat thread and not slavishly on board with every wee operational run. Some great things happening in there just now that of course bode well for winter..

[A Winter's Tale]

Terry Michael Wood is really Ian Brown? Never! Couldn't possibly tell from the 'it's game over now' post.

The ECM, even as awful as it is, still has heights over the Arctic and actually from there we could still get to cold very easily:

In fact, it's pretty much cool zonality for the north of Scotland:

and looking at Greenland, there wouldn't be much stopping us reaching a colder solution past +240:

And we'd get there at about the same date as my winter forecast suggested!

All joking aside though I'd much prefer UKMO to be right. It's funny how you spend all this time patiently looking at height anomalies thinking everything's under control and then all of a sudden, when you think you're nearly there, it goes back to being a savage battle between one solution and another.

Yes, the chart at 240hrs was certainly one example of a possible evolution that could lead to a reload of blocking - which is certainly a possibility regarding how volatile the model output is. Really these flips in the models should make for good, interesting and enjoyable model watching and discussion but it's a pity that when one run isn't showing what people want, there tends to be a knee-jerk reaction (some folk treat charts drawn by supercomputers as if it's the bible). At least there are many on this thread and others who actually enjoy or have interest in the weather for what it is. Anyway, my advice is (to newer members) is to pay attention to posts from members such as Isolated Frost, Chiono, GP and co. in moments of confusion (totally understandable given some of mood swings). When you look at the outlook and wider picture, things are interesting and loooking good but we are far from reaching a feasable conclusion at this early stage of development.

This week is looking like a cold one with further frosts and some sunshine and possibly we could end up with a particulary cold and snowy weekend but we need further days worth of model watching to find out whether this could be reality. This coming week should be pretty pivotal regarding the development of synoptcs for early December but I've got a feeling that this 'saga' could extend further into December.

Temperature here reached 6C, another cold day with rain earlier on but skies have cleared and it's been a lovely evening. Temperature now 0C, another day with an air frost this season and tonight could well be a pretty cold one and there could be further air frosts to come before we start of winter.

Edited November 25, 2012 by A Winter's Tale

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html

That really sums it up tonight.