Scotland Regional Discussion

[LomondSnowstorm]

Stop it, these charts are giving me nostalgia goosebumps ! So much of the fun from that time was just people on here making local forecasts against the met-office (ahem) wisdom and coming up trumps. Radar of course plays a big part in that too. I remember in that localised westerly chart, just tracking a blob that made landfall somewhere near Prestwick ...somehow it slowly meandered intact across Lanarkshire and dumped 3+ cms here over 30 minutes or so.

Last year was a letdown overall. Lets hope we have a couple of weeks of that kind of 2009 or 2010 fun coming our way.

I know! I got that too. We did that so much, remember that time we called the big east coast snowfall while the BBC Scotland breakfast weather was showing it dry even as the snow was in the actual news? Classic. It just showed you can get snow off any wind direction if the setup's right.

Yeah, for the amount of relatively cold days we had last year was awful, the biggest snowfall was the start of April. This winter already looks looks to be shaping up better than that, though hopefully the ECM backs down in the morning and we can actually start looking ahead to our chances from Thursday onwards.

[Guest]

I know! I got that too. We did that so much, remember that time we called the big east coast snowfall while the BBC Scotland breakfast weather was showing it dry even as the snow was in the actual news? Classic. It just showed you can get snow off any wind direction if the setup's right.

Yeah, for the amount of relatively cold days we had last year was awful, the biggest snowfall was the start of April. This winter already looks looks to be shaping up better than that, though hopefully the ECM backs down in the morning and we can actually start looking ahead to our chances from Thursday onwards.

The biggest gaffe from the BBC was that one when the Sunday night forecast showed what appeared to be a snow shower which turned out to be the snowbomb from Iceland which closed the M 8 for two days.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Well I'm still up in the end, but what a crazy night. First the GFS backs the ECM, then UKMO sticks to its guns, and now this:

The ECM reverts to something along the lines of the UKMO and the cold spell has been saved!

[Northernlights]

Good job I don"t plan farm work on the basis of the model thread otherwise I would not know where I was from hour to hour. Currently 4.1c here

Question for Lomand Snowstorm.

Is the fact that the normal progression of west to east weather is effectively being almost reversed by this potential cold spell the fact that creates difficulties for the models and leads to this rollercoaster?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Good job I don"t plan farm work on the basis of the model thread otherwise I would not know where I was from hour to hour. Currently 4.1c here

Question for Lomand Snowstorm.

Is the fact that the normal progression of west to east weather is effectively being almost reversed by this potential cold spell the fact that creates difficulties for the models and leads to this rollercoaster?

Sort of, it's a combination of factors really. Firstly, because it's such a big change from the usual westerly flow as you say it's harder to get to grips with compared to usual relatively small changes. Another factor is a lack of data in the Arctic, which means that blocks are either over or under estimated, which also has a big impact on the model reliability. In this case though I think it was partly just that the entire evolution depended on the tilt and movement of a small but rapidly forming low off the eastern seaboard of the USA.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The biggest gaffe from the BBC was that one when the Sunday night forecast showed what appeared to be a snow shower which turned out to be the snowbomb from Iceland which closed the M 8 for two days.

Yep, can't argue there, what's worse is they never ever took responsibility for the fact that they were wrong and instead tried to defend the forecast. Stewart Stevenson had to resign over the whole affair when in fact he'd only been told to expect 1-2cm, 5cm at most on higher levels, the night before.

[Guest]

Yep, can't argue there, what's worse is they never ever took responsibility for the fact that they were wrong and instead tried to defend the forecast. Stewart Stevenson had to resign over the whole affair when in fact he'd only been told to expect 1-2cm, 5cm at most on higher levels, the night before.

I can't remember what we were expecting from it, but I do remember that the FAX charts had picked up on the feature...I might even have it saved somewhere!

Was it the 6th Dec 2010?

Edited November 26, 2012 by CatchMyDrift

[LomondSnowstorm]

I can't remember what we were expecting from it, but I do remember that the FAX charts had picked up on the feature...I might even have it saved somewhere!

This is the 00Z version:

It was a kink in the isobars from west to east that caused the trough to form and the heavy snowfall but it was flagged up by the high resolution models the night before so there was no reason for them not to have seen the potential.

[Guest]

This is the 00Z version:

It was a kink in the isobars from west to east that caused the trough to form and the heavy snowfall but it was flagged up by the high resolution models the night before so there was no reason for them not to have seen the potential.

Yes, it was on the FAX charts from at least 24 hours before that. I even drew an orange circle round the feature as it appeared the day before, for some reason, before posting it up. I must have been explaining it but I can't remember now:

Edit: With the pesky warm sector which brought me rain for a good few hours before it turned to snow :grr:

Edited November 26, 2012 by CatchMyDrift

[edo]

Had quick glance on MT on TWO and it seems GFS taking a step away from UKMO but the ECM has started to move back more in line with the UKMO so in summary the roller coaster continues but I am confident we are going into the freezer....the weather forecaster on sky news talking about flooding said the problem later this week will be ice with cold setting in and highs of 4 during the day at least through to the end of next weekend....highs of 4 as in down south which means somewhere at or just above freezing here no doubt

[Guest]

Had quick glance on MT on TWO and it seems GFS taking a step away from UKMO but the ECM has started to move back more in line with the UKMO so in summary the roller coaster continues but I am confident we are going into the freezer....the weather forecaster on sky news talking about flooding said the problem later this week will be ice with cold setting in and highs of 4 during the day at least through to the end of next weekend....highs of 4 as in down south which means somewhere at or just above freezing here no doubt

Yep, winter's over according to some in the model thread...we'll see what the charts offer today before the tears start

I can see where they are coming from with ensembles like these, although there may well be screams of "upgrade" later from the top of the rollercoaster. Time will tell

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Yep, winter's over

Aye, jist gied the garage a bell; time tae get the winters taken aff.

[Guest]

Aye, jist gied the garage a bell; time tae get the winters taken aff.

Anyone for a BBQ then?

[edo]

CMD a nice cluster from the 28th to the 1st there until it has trouble dealing with the current setup I am going to go with Lorenzo here and not really be concerned at plus 96 as it is now officially FI. At this point I am really interested in what the forecasters are saying and they are certainly confident in calling the cold spell from late Wednesday to Sunday at least so that will do me for now...........but to be truthful anxiously awaiting the next runs lol

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

At this point I am really interested in what the forecasters are saying and they are certainly confident

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

A few showers across the eastern Borders on Wednesday, otherwise dry and bright after a frosty start. A few wintry showers on Thursday and Friday, these mainly over the Borders.

Updated: 0508 on Mon 26 Nov 2012

Edited November 26, 2012 by scottish skier

[Guest]

CMD a nice cluster from the 28th to the 1st there until it has trouble dealing with the current setup I am going to go with Lorenzo here and not really be concerned at plus 96 as it is now officially FI. At this point I am really interested in what the forecasters are saying and they are certainly confident in calling the cold spell from late Wednesday to Sunday at least so that will do me for now...........but to be truthful anxiously awaiting the next runs lol

The 1st seems to be the pivot, will be nice to see what the charts spit out later and what actually turns up weather wise at the end of all this chart watching. I'm not really that concerned, it would be nice to see some snow but I'm not going to lose any sleep over it if the snow disappears faster than a snowman's nuts in a bonfire.

[Guest]

The key moments are within range of the FAX charts (yesterday's +120hrs I think), comparing this with the 00z GFS from overnight shows the differences:

The GFS has the low with far greater eastwards progress and it all goes wrong from there...

[over_the_rainbow]

Just been on the MT reading back since last nights 18 GFS to this morning.............

I think Blitzen's prozac is in demand! Thanks to LS, Catch, et al for making sense of it on here for us!

Edited November 26, 2012 by over_the_rainbow

[Michael Kaii]

Hey Folks Long Timer Reader 1st time post....in a Long time. im off the model page as i dont understand and Folk go mental when its a bad run...but do you Think this cold spell Could be as Worst as 2010?

[BleakMidwinter]

Blimey, what an evening it was in the MT! :o

Thanks to everyone here for the translation - it makes far better reading! Although, I'm now a little bit worried that just reading this thread might make me pregnant with triplets - maybe I should fit a condom over the laptop? Although of course, it's an excellent way to ensure plenty of weathergeeks for the future, so keep on multiplying!

Not that cold out there today in South suburban Embra, grey and damp and uninspiring, so it's good to read the potential for some actual weather!

[edo]

The key moments are within range of the FAX charts (yesterday's +120hrs I think), comparing this with the 00z GFS from overnight shows the differences:

The GFS has the low with far greater eastwards progress and it all goes wrong from there...

Very interesting....... squeaky bum time today I think

[edo]

Hey Folks Long Timer Reader 1st time post....in a Long time. im off the model page as i dont understand and Folk go mental when its a bad run...but do you Think this cold spell Could be as Worst as 2010?

If you read the strat thread it certainly shows synoptics which would suggest a prolonged cold spell is likely at some point this winter be it now or further on. Interestingly whilst 2010 was amazing for here for others it is actually not such a special time snow wise. Keep reading Lorenzo and LS and IF and SS etc etc and they will let us know.........certainly some of the runs of the last few days have showed incredibly snowy scenarios as close as +240 however unfortunately in model land +240 is never really close.

So in summary from my incredibly limited knowledge..... i only began learning last year I would have to say

Mibbees aye mibbees naw

[Guest]

Mibbees aye mibbees naw

I think you meant "mibbees aye mibbees snaw" ?

[edo]

glol #clever

thats what 8024 posts of experience buys you

[Guest]

glol #clever

thats what 8024 posts of experience buys you

What's that? The ability to spam with the best of them? In my defence I have been on here for almost eight years now, so it's only about three posts a day on average.