Scotland Regional Discussion

[LomondSnowstorm]

Snowy enough?

[Benvironment]

Snowy enough?

I'm more than happy for that weekend to be mild mush seeing as I'm heading south to Rugby for the weekend. I'd hate to miss anything exciting back home

[cscrim]

ach, i put all my thoughts into "game over" earlier after Ian said so and you throw that in.

glad over the last 5 years i have seen enough posts from both of you and know who to take seriously and who to ignore.

[Isolated Frost]

at the medium-term junction, at a local scale- the FAX supports the UKMO- in fact they are very similar- an achievement considering Ian F's MT post.. big support there

fwiw, that would be -4c uppers for much of N and E Scotland on Thursday, turning to -5c 850s on Friday with a ne flow (some snow in parts of the cheviots and highlands I'm sure)- and by Saturday and Sunday, the uppers change to -7c, -8c and even -9c across north-eastern parts- with a n/ne flow, increasingly turning towards an easterly, snow for most of ne scotland and the border region- I'd expect the Inbhir-nis (?) and highland areas to be in real luck- whilst areas like Edinburgh and Dundee/Fife to get hit well- especially with a 15-17c temperature difference (850mb to sea temp)

considering 13c is the norm necessary for precipitation off the sea- we could be in real luck if the fax and ukmo charts come off-

the fax 120 is simply superb for those in scotland and ne england- the flow would turn ne'ly for sunday- leading to many, many showers inland, mostly wintry

[edo]

solution is simple mate, after 4 kids myself and mrs S were in same situation. she got the coil i got spared the snip

lol save this debate for when the charts are poor...not sure could trust a coil...convinced my swimmers could get through that.... 4 kids wow this multiple kids becoming a theme of a kilted thread membership

[lorenzo]

Awaiting number 3 I can confirm that theme

[edo]

It may be a roller-coaster at times but a damn sight safer than train spotting... http://news.bbc.co.u.../uk/8683750.stm

wow he was pretty chilled about it!! I might have swore a bit

[lorenzo]

Great to see 18 z GFS slow the rush of the ECm and crank up the meridional.

Those charts from both LS and IF show the mean CPC outlook - if anyone is wondering about their make up was lucky to stumble upon a page within the NOAA CPC set last week than showed the analogs they use.

Essentially they boil down the 00z suite of runs across models, draw out weightings from that then add there own analogs..

much of what we do here !!!

IF - must admit am happy if you choose to reside here all winter your analysis of whats up front and incoming kicks mine out of the park.. You and LS teaming up is something rest of netweather won't have! Leaves me to plod around with my MJO and strat stuff

Edited November 25, 2012 by lorenzo

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

4 kids wow this multiple kids becoming a theme of a kilted thread membership

Must be something in the water (of life)

Edited November 25, 2012 by scottish skier

[edo]

Awaiting number 3 I can confirm that theme

Wow congrats Lorenzo this is just becoming a daft theme for this forum.......u would think we would be too busy chart watching to create so many kids....when is the due date? I hope its not during winter and going to effect your contributions got my selfish hat on

[lorenzo]

I have 2 girls just now 10 and 4 and a new laddie aged 0 in April, pretty amazed to have broken the mould.

Hi Tec Satellite imagery confirmed it is not an outlier.

Edit - just read reply after posting , thanks

Edited November 25, 2012 by lorenzo

[edo]

Fantastic stuff IF

By the power of Holyrood and for services to model analysis I hereby declare you Scottish

[Cheggers]

wow he was pretty chilled about it!! I might have swore a bit

A bit, I think a change or 3 of underwear would have been the order of the day.

[Big Innes Madori]

If the weather models are bogging you down - don't worry comical relief is at hand from J Buffet, ha ha ha ha ha ha - what a thread title LOL!!!

http://forum.netweat...her-presenters/

You can expect to see Ms CC in their very soon

Aye Lorenzo!

Some rare Quines oan the Aberdonian TV weather eh

Big Innes

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=55.991902834008094&lon=-3.4905660377358494

Better looking ensembles, means almost nothing given how volatile they've been but nice to have at least. I'm not even going to try predicting tomorrow's output, other than I very much doubt it'll be mild and zonal whatever happens.

[edo]

I have 2 girls just now 10 and 4 and a new laddie aged 0 in April, pretty amazed to have broken the mould.

Hi Tec Satellite imagery confirmed it is not an outlier.

GLOL brilliant you lucky barsteward I could not break the mould and stuck on 3 girls.....she has tried to tempt me with promises of a boy but Im not falling for that

[Cheggers]

GLOL brilliant you lucky barsteward I could not break the mould and stuck on 3 girls.....she has tried to tempt me with promises of a boy but Im not falling for that

You may as well give in, woman always win.

[edo]

You may as well give in, woman always win.

lol too many fantastic female contributors on here to get into that debate.....you are of course right but i feel there is a subplot here.....she cant possibly want a 4th which means she wants something else and she will therefore use the 4th child as a barganing tool to get a dog or a horse or whatever it is....time will tell and of course it will be shared here

[Isolated Frost]

Great to see 18 z GFS slow the rush of the ECm and crank up the meridional.

Those charts from both LS and IF show the mean CPC outlook - if anyone is wondering about their make up was lucky to stumble upon a page within the NOAA CPC set last week than showed the analogs they use.

Essentially they boil down the 00z suite of runs across models, draw out weightings from that then add there own analogs..

much of what we do here !!!

IF - must admit am happy if you choose to reside here all winter your analysis of whats up front and incoming kicks mine out of the park.. You and LS teaming up is something rest of netweather won't have! Leaves me to plod around with my MJO and strat stuff

Oh, Lorenzo, your analysis is superb! Great news about number 3 btw!!

I'm wanting to learn and learn more about the upper atmosphere so this thread seems to be nearly as good as the internationally renowned (!) strat thread, and technical threads... but this thread has the banter!

[cscrim]

I have 2 girls just now 10 and 4 and a new laddie aged 0 in April, pretty amazed to have broken the mould.

Hi Tec Satellite imagery confirmed it is not an outlier.

Edit - just read reply after posting , thanks

oh mate you are deep in it. age gap like that with the girls...not good news. my 2 eldest are girls, one 19 the other 12. just when i think i have got over the trauma of teenage angst the other is in full swing. thank god i have 2 lads to follow this nightmare up.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Forgot to add earlier, congratulations Lorenzo

[Sunny Leith]

Interesting times. One thing about both Dec 2009 and Dec 2010, neither of course were entirely easterly periods, and we got snow here from a variety of compass points. I suppose the simplest and truest thing to say is (as always), "get the cold in and the rest will follow".

http://www.meteociel...905660377358494

Better looking ensembles, means almost nothing given how volatile they've been but nice to have at least. I'm not even going to try predicting tomorrow's output, other than I very much doubt it'll be mild and zonal whatever happens.

[cscrim]

"get the cold in and the rest will follow", great way to view it by-tor.

for the years i have been on here that has increasingly become the way to look at it. anything else would lead to gnashing of teeth and frustration. how many times do we look at charts and think aye, here we go, this is going to deliver only for it all to go wrong in the lead up to T-0. if the cold air is there already, chances rapidly decrease for such disappointment.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Interesting times. One thing about both Dec 2009 and Dec 2010, neither of course were entirely easterly periods, and we got snow here from a variety of compass points. I suppose the simplest and truest thing to say is (as always), "get the cold in and the rest will follow".

Absolutely right, and actually without that variation in flow the cold uppers would eventually get cut off. 2009/10 was amazing in the number of ways we got snow and cold. First we had the easterly:

Then the northerly (which itself was a bit of a dud):

Then we had that localised westerly outbreak:

Then that incredible dumping the east coast got from a bendy northerly:

Then the cold pool starts to run out but we have just enough left for the big almost breakdown snowfall:

Then a sort of shallow cold easterly:

And then the reload from the northeast (this brought a foot of snow in the middle of the day to Inverness if I remember correctly):

And then a reload again from the north:

Then it got slack again:

And then, finally, our cold pool ran out:

Impressive. If we got half the length and half the intensity of that spell I'd be pretty happy to be honest, for now at least.

[Sunny Leith]

Stop it, these charts are giving me nostalgia goosebumps ! So much of the fun from that time was just people on here making local forecasts against the met-office (ahem) wisdom and coming up trumps. Radar of course plays a big part in that too. I remember in that localised westerly chart, just tracking a blob that made landfall somewhere near Prestwick ...somehow it slowly meandered intact across Lanarkshire and dumped 3+ cms here over 30 minutes or so.

Last year was a letdown overall. Lets hope we have a couple of weeks of that kind of 2009 or 2010 fun coming our way.

Absolutely right, and actually without that variation in flow the cold uppers would eventually get cut off. 2009/10 was amazing in the number of ways we got snow and cold. First we had the easterly:

Then the northerly (which itself was a bit of a dud):

Then we had that localised westerly outbreak:

Then that incredible dumping the east coast got from a bendy northerly:

Then the cold pool starts to run out but we have just enough left for the big almost breakdown snowfall:

Then a sort of shallow cold easterly:

And then the reload from the northeast (this brought a foot of snow in the middle of the day to Inverness if I remember correctly):

And then a reload again from the north:

Then it got slack again:

And then, finally, our cold pool ran out:

Impressive. If we got half the length and half the intensity of that spell I'd be pretty happy to be honest, for now at least.