Scotland Regional Discussion

[LomondSnowstorm]

That CPC chart is an absolute peach !

Absolutely, I couldn't have drawn it better.

[Isolated Frost]

Absolutely, I couldn't have drawn it better.

Indeed- a complete belter! The solution for the infamous Greenland Sea/Continental Trough is perfection as we had all seen in Nov 2010 of course.

6-10 day isn't that bad either!

[Hairy Celt]

In the meantime, I found the whole 'ramp' (spoof) documentary.

If you have a weird sense of humour like me, you might enjoy it.

http://vimeo.com/5512573

That's just off-the-scale sideways European fruitcakery... Youngest HC kept sighing then just quit after a few mins, I perservered and by the end was decidedly worried

Very windy tonight, hope this doesn't go on too long...

If you no able to sleep... http://helios.swpc.n...ion/Europe.html

No show here but will have a peep in the far north tomorrow night - the night sky from Forsinard is stunning

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

This morning's runs continuing with the blocking theme.

ECM at 168 showing an initially weak (in terms of cold) NE'ly:

Much colder air coming around by 240. Undercutting lows into Europe the important thing:

GFS similar at 168:

Again tapping into colder by 240:

We shall see!

[lorenzo]

GFS operational 00z the coldest solution on the run, leading the way with a dip in the Ensemble suite for the 850 temps, hopefully it drags the rest down with it in the next 24 hours. Not the first time the operational has been out on its own against the ensembles.

Some stunning heights on the NHemisphere view. Also a low pressure system has trundled round to the Aleutians which in time helps build further pressure on the Polar Vortex.

[Guest]

This morning's runs continuing with the blocking theme.

I would say it's a bit more than a theme SS

It's fast approaching a full Atlantic shutdown now with strong cross-model support:

I don't want to jinx anything but the pattern looks pretty nailded on to me.

[Hairy Celt]

Cracking weather Grommit. Time for some Wensleydale.

Elsewhere, there seems to be some excitement re cold weather. I think there's a bit of chance of this happening...

Edited November 21, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[Guest]

In a continuation of previous posts here's the last several GFS 12z runs for 12pm on the 1st of December:

Some variations on the theme as runs have come and gone, but hopefully the consistency will build from here on in. Some cracking charts today, the model thread is well worth a read tonight, assuming the sniping doesn't start.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Edited November 21, 2012 by scottish skier

[LomondSnowstorm]

Game, set and match to the cold on the basis of the model output today I think.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Time for a ramp of biblical proportions maybe?

[Highland Snow]

Time for a ramp of biblical proportions maybe?

As long as it doesn't turn out to be the ramp to The Ark ss!

[over_the_rainbow]

You know somethings afoot when inbetween glances the model thread keep moving up 10 pages!

Some very interesting charts - hard not to feel the 'ramp effect'.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Oh dear, seems that the ECM has set off a genuine argument over what the +264 chart would look like. To be honest, if people weren't happy with the ECM I'm not entirely sure they ever will be. And even then there's no guarantee this would topple all that quickly:

There's still some WAA up the East side of Greenland and that trough could probably prop the high up for another 48 hours or so before maybe having the high settle over us. But really the most sensible analysis I can make is that the cold looks like making its way here but for how long and in what form is still up for grabs.

[Snowplough33]

Hello all.

I see the usual suspects are still hanging about.

Is there something going on.......?????

[scottishandy]

A very similar date to 2 years ago, a litle bit of this,

Leading to a few weeks of this,

Bring it on!

[blitzen]

Aye, looks odds on for some cold air to be blowin' up oor kilts next week! There will no doubt be a few slit wrist scenarios on the MOD before then though!

They keep on about the possibility of another 100yr event like 2010. Maybe it's just me, but I can quote a few years that were just as good (and some of them worse) like 1984?, One particularly bad year in the 90's (can't remember which) and of course 1947, 1962/63 which weren't 100 years ago either. A few I know are from IMBY perspective, but 100yr event I didn't consider it to be. (Probably just me having a shot at reverse psychology so this next one will come off!)

A pretty soggy, breezy time to get through first though seemingly!

[Northernlights]

Another mild dry sunny day. Cows and calves still out but will definitely be in this week end . Everything ready for the cold coming the only thing not done is a store of neeps in.A bit old fashioned still growing neeps but are an excellent cattle feed and a good break crop.Cannot find a contractor anywhere in the north of Scotland with a neep harvester to lift a store so am being pushed into buying one and found a secondhand one online today.Just hope we can take delivery before the snow comes. Cows can go out every day to neeps behind an electric fence but younger cattle need neeps inside from a store.Young Mr. Northernlights and myself are picking 3 tonnes a day just now by hand, fine when the weather is OK but not under a foot of snow

[edo]

whilst excited at the prospect of trolling through those charts and i realise everyone will be looking at that, after the flooding of Comrie on Monday and the already saturated ground tomorrows band of rain will fall on is there a real prospect of more flooding or is the amber warning the Met just being cautious?

[lorenzo]

@edodfc

There is a thread dedicated to the short term synoptics here

So much to keep an eye on at the moment, I will try and get some charts up shortly.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Stunning.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Now THAT'S how Scotland does well out of an easterly:

Spot the difference from 2 years ago to that very date:

And now we have the lull before the real deal arrives:

Bloody hell. It's like December 2009 and November 2010 rolled into one.

[A Winter's Tale]

Shades of November 2010.......... Wow!!!!

We await further charts but this is exciting, wouldn't it just be wonderful to have an event like that again. How big can the snow get on the bench at fort SS.

RAMP!

Edited November 21, 2012 by A Winter's Tale

[Cheggers]

A nice day here to break up what has and is still to be a very wet and windy week.

I see things on the cold front moving along nicely, think I will remain here rather than head over to the dark side.

PS. I might break the weather tool into 2 separate tabs, one for analysis work, and one a full screen of cams in prep for lamppost watching? Any thoughts.

Edited November 21, 2012 by Cheggers

[LomondSnowstorm]

A nice day here to break up what has and is still to be a very wet and windy week.

I see things on the cold front moving along nicely, think I will remain here rather than head over to the dark side.

I would, probably going to head into a 'why is Scotland doing so well out of this run' TOORP. Never mind, this beats yon snizzly continental easterlies any day of the week:

It would of course lead to a breakdown around the 8th but after all that, who cares?

Anyway, just another possible option, though I must say that was probably my favourite so far. The pub run can sometimes start a trend, though we only notice the times it does rather than the many times it just goes off on one, but if that were to be the eventual pattern then I seriously doubt the PV would reform in such a manner (December 2009 had very similar charts when we thought the PV remnants dropping would kill the whole block but it turned out to be false and similarly in December 2010 the Greenland high was modelled at such strength that it looked for a while like we could get a mild Arctic sourced northerly). That may be the next step: the composites are again pointing to heights over Greenland as the way to go for the 8-14 day range, but we've still got a lot to work out before we get to that stage.

Still, I have a good feeling about this: when we see upgrades rather than downgrades as the interesting stuff moves into the reliable that tends to be a good sign.

Edited November 21, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm