Scotland Regional Discussion

[scott_anthony_glasgow]

Currently snowing here in East Kilbride.

[over_the_rainbow]

Glad to here you have some snaw!

First day in three we weren't foggy all day here, but a very chilly wind all day. Felt pretty nippy outside.

Every time I look at the GFS it seems to change, and venturing into the model thread I gather it's all a bit up in the air past next week?

[Northern Strath]

A bitter day today. Took the dog for a walk this afternoon in the local area and encountered some cheeky snow showers. Looking milder after the weekend though.

Currently 0C

[A Winter's Tale]

Hello all. A lovely sunny start with some light rain and a hail shower in the morning. Shower activity increased in the afternoon with some heavy showers and fewer clear spells. During a drive around the Campsies there was some sleet around Fintry and also some bits of sleety rain in Lennoxtown and Bearsden. The temperature had dropped to around 3C. Skies currently overcast with the orange glow of the city. There have been less showers in this area since earlier in the evening but it's great to hear that there has been snow in the south side. With a bit of luck there could be some more of it overnight....

[lorenzo]

Another week at work done and dusted Hello Floorboards

Brutally cold this morning, coaching kids football went from pleasurable to an episode of Bear Grylls inside 10 minutes.

Still a sharp night tonight, good to get some bone chilling air.

Great looking busy Fax chart exiting the weekend too.

Classic low in the Atlanticspinning in the cold air and pepping things up out west

Comma might be worth keeping an eye on.

In regards to model thread some really enticing charts appearing and also some strictly zonal affairs, finely balanced at the moment. Waiting for wave 1 activity to kick in from that huge ridge over the other side of the hemisphere and our old pal the MJO and off we go...

Anyone seen this mind blowing stuff

Edited November 17, 2012 by lorenzo

[LomondSnowstorm]

It seems very quiet on here given that there appears to be some fairly hefty showers with wintry potential around, and even snow reports earlier. Dew points are just slightly too high in lowland central areas but with a bit of elevation inland it looks pretty interesting for some. I'd put it at a 'yellow' for lowland central and western coastal areas and a 'light blue' for all of the highlands and most of Argyll i.e. fairly heavy showers which are quite likely to lie with a bit of elevation and precipitation intensity. I'll try to do a big model post tomorrow, depending on whether we have a decent consensus or not.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Fairly chilly and interesting end to the 00Z GFS.

[Northernlights]

Cold sunny start with ground frost and ice on any puddles.A dusting of snow down to around 900 feet on most hills and high ground round the Firth this morning with wintry showers to the north. Currently 2c. A smashing November winter morning with great visibilities.

[over_the_rainbow]

Morning all! Woke up to everything including the road all white - BUT it's ice not snow (caveat I think it's all ice). Want to head out in the car but will leave it a bit as I'm not keen on ice-skating in the car.

[Cheggers]

Very chilly clear start, with a dusting on the Ochils. Grey muck building from the West though. Going to be wet and breezy by tonight.

I have updated the wee weather tool with a few extra's on the webcam front, and all links now break out to a new tab or window.

KiltedWeatherTool.html

Updated my sig as well.

Edited November 18, 2012 by Cheggers

[Hairy Celt]

Cold & sunny here too, going to make the most of the day as tomorrow looks fowl!

* high st. could be like this in a few weeks time?

* ahem image courtesy KiltedWeatherTool...

Edited November 18, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[November13]

Yeh some snow on the Ochils. Pity most of next week is dull ,windy ,wet and mild. Not been a great November so far. 1 recorded frost day in Polmont. I have not used the scraper this month at all. lets home December is better.

[Big Innes Madori]

Another week at work done and dusted Hello Floorboards

Brutally cold this morning, coaching kids football went from pleasurable to an episode of Bear Grylls inside 10 minutes.

Still a sharp night tonight, good to get some bone chilling air.

Great looking busy Fax chart exiting the weekend too.

Classic low in the Atlanticspinning in the cold air and pepping things up out west

Comma might be worth keeping an eye on.

In regards to model thread some really enticing charts appearing and also some strictly zonal affairs, finely balanced at the moment. Waiting for wave 1 activity to kick in from that huge ridge over the other side of the hemisphere and our old pal the MJO and off we go...

Anyone seen this mind blowing stuff

Great stuff Lorenzo!

Near the end they say " Imagine living on a planet where you cannot see the Night Sky"

Welcome to planet Scotland mate

Ah wouldn't like to have a business here that relied on sales of Sunglasses or Telescopes

Big Innes

Edited November 18, 2012 by Big Innes Madori

[Guest]

I'm not sure what (if anything) this will show in the long run, but as a continuation of recent posts here are the last four 12z charts for 12pm on the 1st of Dec, in chronological order of output:

There are obviously differences in the final outcomes and probably different evolutions to get to those outcomes, however, all of these look to me as if there is potential for some lovely high latitude blocking.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm not sure what (if anything) this will show in the long run, but as a continuation of recent posts here are the last four 12z charts for 12pm on the 1st of Dec, in chronological order of output:

There are obviously differences in the final outcomes and probably different evolutions to get to those outcomes, however, all of these look to me as if there is potential for some lovely high latitude blocking.

Yes indeed, the common theme is that we have high latitude blocking evident in all of them. Some are better placed than others for us but we are at least able to say that, in 10-12 days time, we will be looking at a very different picture than the one we currently have.

[Northernlights]

Fine sunny day. Hills all round wearing a white coat against the blue sky Temperature rose to 4c and frost remained in the shade all day. Great drying day however cattle contented so left them out for another day.Full winter diet being fed in the field every day so they are dunging the pasture well.Sudden warm up tomorrow makes it better for them to be outside(pneumonia risk! inside if they sweat after coming in.)

[A Winter's Tale]

A nice sunny November's day. Went for a walk in the afternoon and it felt very cold with largely clear skies as the sun began to set. A few showers at around 3pm with a bit of hail. Since then, cloud cover has increased throughout the evening - the signs of change to what is looking like a mild, wet and classic autumnal affair this coming week.

For much of the week, we have high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west, we remain under a S/SWly flow throughout the week with changeable weather conditions.

Later in the week, low pressure is situated closer to/over the British Isles with further changeabe weather, but less mild as we lose the tropical air mass.

One feature in the models of late is high pressure in the atlantic. For next weekend we could have settled weather as infuence of this high but could be replaced by low pressure. At the moment, the uncertainty begins beyond this Friday and the following week is a period to be really keeping an eye on.

However, the first signs of positive looking synoptics/developments is starting to appear at slightly earlier time frames.

GFS 12Z:

ECM 12Z:

There are definite indications of northern blocking further down the line. This week should be a pivotal one for model watching and period to be following be following should be the week beginning 26th November. Early days but exciting times making for intruiging model watching and general weather following.

[Hairy Celt]

Still cold and dry - just realised that we've had less than an inch of rain in the last month. Best get my digging done... d'oh, too late, look at tomorrow!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

GFS control heading in the right direction.

[BleakMidwinter]

Eeeek! I dunno whether it's milder out there because I'm not going out to find out until I have to! :o

A tad blawy, and more than a tad damp...

[lorenzo]

Wow, a windy Autumn morning, been a while !!

Trio of LP systems churning away in the Atlantic this morning, the one to our immediate West at 973mb. UKMO not too far off on this one, here is the run from 48 hrs ago.

GFS 00z is showing up the new solutions now as a hemispheric pattern change kicks in, some real eye candy.

Look at this ensemble (P5) for a split Polar Vortex - hot knife / cold butter..

All we need is the Asian vortice to travel round and bang..

[Guest]

We're either on for something nice and wintry or a big disappointment...00z sticks with the theme late in FI. A definite trend rather than random FI charts

Just shout "stick" a lot, and hope for the best

Aww, Lorenzo posted up his slightly (ok, hugely) more technical post above at the same time as mine...

Edited November 19, 2012 by CatchMyDrift

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

FI I know, but that's an impressive end to the 06Z

[LomondSnowstorm]

Some superb runs this morning.

It would appear that the initial blocking is likely to be situated to the north/northwest just slightly to the north of the UK, potentially bringing a fairly slack but chilly east-northeasterly:

Even before that though there's another possible opportunity as this week's trough centred around Iceland/Southern Greenland dives southeast into continental Europe. One scenario is that the low fills somewhat and heads to southwest France, giving a mundane locally sourced maritime easterly:

Another possibility though is what the ECM suggests, with the trough stalling to the east/northeast of Scotland and an Arctic sourced northerly ensuing:

Both models have been relatively consistent in showing their own evolutions on this feature so it will be interesting to see which is closer to the mark.

Overall, a very promising picture at present.

[Northernlights]

Mild and windy this morning after overnight rain,currently 12.4c and sun breaking through.Correct decision made to keep cows and calves out as bedding inside cattle was a very warm job this morning. Sudden changes in temperature not good for man or animals.

Spoke to a joiner this morning who said he was hoping to lay foundations for a new house in December. Told him he might have to wait till spring,he didn"t believe me!!!!

Edited November 19, 2012 by Northernlights