Model Output Discussion 23/11/2012 18Z onwards

[Weathizard]

Is it my imagination or is the deep low near Labrador attempting to shove the Greenland High out of the way. Its really squeezing that Atlantic Ridge quite tightly.

Wouldn't be a GFS run without a massively zooped up Atlantic low attempting to smash its way through.

[Snowy Easterlies]

Is it my imagination or is the deep low near Labrador attempting to shove the Greenland High out of the way. Its really squeezing that Atlantic Ridge quite tightly.

yes agree i hope it don't end up toppling, though its usually what happens, blocking don't look as strong

[The Eagle]

I think this a cracking run so far. Increasingly cold, frosty and icy. Showers increasingly of snow from the north and a large cold pool over us. Any atlantic front brushing up against this airmass is going to be snow.

EDIT: Bad FI but still not a bad run in the high res.

Edited November 24, 2012 by The Eagle

[snowstorm445]

Wouldn't be a GFS run without a massively zooped up Atlantic low attempting to smash its way through.

I suppose it is to be expected, and given how far out it is, probably not to be relied on. I have heard the the GFS has the tendency to bring in zonal weather nearer the end of the runs.

Also bearing in mind that this is the fabled "pub run", but you never know.

[Geordiesnow]

Sorry, could you explain why the UKMO would back down?

I think it might back down in the sence of the trough(low pressure system) not heading northwards into Scandinavia. Both the GFS and ECM(especially) wanted the trough to head into Scandinavia, consequently tilting the isobars into a more Northerly/NNW'ly direction. Latest runs have shown the cold air being a bit more stubborn therefore we still get cold arriving into the UK if albeit at a slightly later timeframe and probably slightly less potent aswell. Tomorrow morning's runs will probably tell us the answer but I would prefer if the UKMO is right, both on a IMBY POV but on a cold potency POV also.

Still uncertainty regarding the shortwaves in the Norwegian sea also but I honestly seen plenty of runs to suggest the Atlantic shortwave should not bother us if the jet stream is in a favourable position.

[bluearmy]

It will be a surprise if ukmo T144 is not pushing more energy nw when we wake up. Not to say it will but just as the other models tend to fall in line if they are alone with a solution, so we should expect ukmo to do so, especially given the shape of the mean trough on the ecm ens mean.

[snowstorm445]

The ridge is broken at 204 hrs:

Edited November 24, 2012 by snowstorm445

[Panayiotis]

-

Edited November 24, 2012 by panayiotis

[Weathizard]

I suppose it is to be expected, and given how far out it is, probably not to be relied on. I have heard the the GFS has the tendency to bring in zonal weather nearer the end of the runs.

Also bearing in mind that this is the fabled "pub run", but you never know.

Exactly, its after 192 and its just typical GFS to smash the block and bring the Atlantic in, don't buy it at all, good news is this run in the reliable time frame has 2-3 solid days of sub -5 uppers.

[phil nw.]

I wouldn`t concern yourselves with the later outputs guys.It`s enough to see some agreement for the initial block building to Svalbard by T120hrs.

The Euro/Scandi low hts still to be sorted-that will come soon.

[weather_it_will]

Is it my imagination or is the deep low near Labrador attempting to shove the Greenland High out of the way. Its really squeezing that Atlantic Ridge quite tightly.

It's bringing cold air from Canada, so not a negative.

[ITSY]

the ridge which has purportedly been so strong seems to get smashed up far too easily in low res. But like we keep saying, FI is somewhere between 100-144, so take all after with a pinch of salt. Worth seeing ens's later. All in all a decent high res and one which nicely follows ECM. wondering if that will be the leader. UKMO has been upgraded though, (see recent news headlines), so you never know. Also, once we get that cold in place, transient snowfall is likely when the cold comes to an end, whenever that may be.

Edited November 24, 2012 by ITSY

[bobbydog]

It will be a surprise if ukmo T144 is not pushing more energy nw when we wake up. Not to say it will but just as the other models tend to fall in line if they are alone with a solution, so we should expect ukmo to do so, especially given the shape of the mean trough on the ecm ens mean.

will it though? it's been quite consistent. i'm sure computers don't feel 'left out'

[Cloud 10]

The best agreement yet between GFS and ECM at a whopping 7 days out!

gfs.. ecm..

Comparing the GFS 18z to the NAEFS for H500 anomalies for the same time as above

reveals the 18z to be a decent match,although the NAEFS has better heights around

Greenland so maybe upgrades to come in the next few days.

18z.. naefs 12z..

[NickR]

Does make me laugh on here sometimes. THis afternoon it was all about how everything supported the UKMO and how everything would fall in line with it (which I considered a precipitous conclusion to draw!). Now it's all about UKMO falling in line with ECM/GFS! Fickle is the word... and it doesn't just describe the models! ;-)

[Geordiesnow]

The GFS/ECM has been more consistent on sending the trough into Scandinavia, the UKMO has been consistent on keeping it further south thus the easterly winds occur but with two against one model, then you would imagine the trough into Scandi is the more likely option which I said many times is not a bad thing(aslong the uppers don't get mixed out too much which they don't on the 18Z).

Edited November 24, 2012 by chionomaniac
removed deleted post

[snowstorm445]

Hold the phone!

Is this another ridge I see forming? (I know its nearly 2 weeks but still)

[Snowy Easterlies]

we can't keep thinking that the GFS always wants to reset to default in FI. GFS has shown this scenario for a few runs now

[Jonan92]

Even in the low resolution the PV is smashed, this is a strong northerly

LOL

[ICETAB]

Hmm, T300 on the GFS 18z looks like the start of hight rises towards greenland again...

[snowice]

It will be a surprise if ukmo T144 is not pushing more energy nw when we wake up. Not to say it will but just as the other models tend to fall in line if they are alone with a solution, so we should expect ukmo to do so, especially given the shape of the mean trough on the ecm ens mean.

I agree i think by tommorow night if the runs ecm the gfs and ukmo all agree on 1st December this board will go into melt down?

[JP1972]

To my untrained eye ....

I think it's now pretty set in stone that wintry weather will kick in from next weekend at the latest for most if not all of the UK.

From past experiences of reading the charts, the charts on offer now will certainly offer snowy conditions down to sea level sooner rather than later once the NE airflow is established.

[Panayiotis]

4 way split!! (FI I know)

Edit:Polar vortex really feeling guilty for last year, if this comes off!

Edited November 24, 2012 by panayiotis

[Weathizard]

Hold the phone!

Is this another ridge I see forming? (I know its nearly 2 weeks but still)

Individual specifics in FI are pointless but the GFS does seem keen to bring heights back into play every run.

[snowstorm445]

What a brilliant end to the run! I know its not going to happen but this is one saucy chart!