Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[gottolovethisweather]

@gtltw

Just trying to learn from you guys but the ensembles from the gfs show the 850s rising (still below 0) as the ppn comes in. Would this lead to a snow to sleety mix event or would the effect of the evaporative cooling effect (I think that's the right term for cooling with heavier bursts) keep it more snow like?

Cheers chap

Marc

If you are referring to the odd number charts i.e. the first, third, fifth, seventh etc. then there are old effectively out of date charts, the evens, second, fourth, sixth etc. are today's GEFS so are more up to date. To answer your question more precisely, there are lowering for the next few hours and are forecast to bottom out around the 6th before rising again.

Don't be afraid to ask for more help where needed.

I am showing the two day old ensembles in order to simply illustrate the trend only.

[khodds]

I'm certainly not going to stay up. If its white in the morning, its a bonus. Looking fwd to a lovely frost tomorrow night. Coldest night of the winter so far I wonder? Hope the models are still drunk tomorrow morning I'm enjoying the current output!

[Fred Sykes]

I reckon I live in a good spot for this little event! (Warminster, Wilt's) Looking at the most recent forecast, there seems to have been an upgrade!

[gottolovethisweather]

What were seeing now is showery rain coming down from the NW, I don't think this is expected to be wintry;

What were interested in is the occlusion coming down from the north in the early hours, its this that could surprise a few of us;

This is the area of the front that the cold air could undercut & turn to snow.

Thanks AWD, that makes things a bit more descriptive for those of us, wondering what is happening. Intriguingly, this region is getting attacked from both the North and the West from what I can see.

[Nights King]

I'm certainly not going to stay up. If its white in the morning, its a bonus. Looking fwd to a lovely frost tomorrow night. Coldest night of the winter so far I wonder? Hope the models are still drunk tomorrow morning I'm enjoying the current output!

Yes I'm off now also, just had a final look at the 500watt security light i had installed outside 3 days ago... still sleet although a few heavy blobs of slushy goodness amoungst it.

[Stoxs]

come on then Khodds how cold willit be tomorrow night?

take a guess and one else want to have a go and we will see who is closest!

All a bit of fun , might cheer up some who are expecting more than thats predicted!

pick a weather station in the south/ south west

[Nights King]

come on then Khodds how cold willit be tomorrow night?

take a guess and one else want to have a go and we will see who is closest!

All a bit of fun , might cheer up some who are expecting more than thats predicted!

pick a weather station in the south/ south west

I really am off to bed in a min but hmmm -7c perhaps in some rural spots?

[khodds]

Ok, I forecast -4.5 in my garden lowest so far this season has been -3.6... Anyone else?

[Stoxs]

mmm chilly call there Mullers = -7

we need a location really for this to work

[AWD]

Tomorrow nights estimated temps from the NAE. Expect a few degrees colder in rural locations too.

[Nights King]

mmm chilly call there Mullers = -7

we need a location really for this to work

Ok back garden be alright?

I rekon yeovil will get similar also though and maybe even lower...

[-uksnow-]

Ok, I forecast -4.5 in my garden lowest so far this season has been -3.6... Anyone else?

I'll go -4.8 in my garden as we have already had -3.8 this week

[fergieweather]

Heavy rain (I can't see anything in my lamp post) temp 1.8c

Mustn't confuse the trough showers from W currently with the occlusion and colder dig from north into tomorrow AM. Re Thursday-Fri, we don't anticipate much wintry element here: a rain event almost or wholly exclusively

[Stoxs]

brb need a bit of study time before i predict, o.k use Khoddds garden as a location, but no cheating khodds

[Nights King]

Mustn't confuse the trough showers from W currently with the occlusion and colder dig from north into tomorrow AM. Re Thursday-Fri, we don't anticipate much wintry element here: a rain event almost or wholly exclusively

What low temperature would you like to have a punt at for wednesday night fergie?

[fergieweather]

What low temperature would you like to have a punt at for wednesday night fergie?

4Km progs -4 to -6

[khodds]

I won't stoxs! Ill even post a pic of weather station if it helps

Thanks Ian - I won't hold my breath for here tomorrow tho. Rain rather heavy now. Hate it if it snows on wet surface - prefer non-marginal... Not that I'm fussy! Ha ha!

Night all - snowy dreams

[AWD]

You can see the cold air digging in behind the occlusion over Scotland here;

We want the cold air to dig behind as quick as possible to get the most snowfall as possible before it clears away.

[Mark Neal.]

You can see the cold air digging in behind the occlusion over Scotland here;

We want the cold air to dig behind as quick as possible to get the most snowfall as possible before it clears away.

Quick Question. Is the precip over Scotland which will bring the snow risk early hours for us of the band of precip in Northern England/North mids. I'm thinking the 1st one.

Many Thanks

[Stoxs]

^{khodds garden will be about - 3.8 lol}

^{not sure it will get to -5 or below but could be wrong!!}

[AWD]

Quick Question. Is the precip over Scotland which will bring the snow risk early hours for us of the band of precip in Northern England/North mids. I'm thinking the 1st one.

Many Thanks

It's the PPN over Scotland, the area with the -6c uppers digging on behind it.

Also, the further west we can get this the better.

[slinky1989]

You can see the cold air digging in behind the occlusion over Scotland here;

We want the cold air to dig behind as quick as possible to get the most snowfall as possible before it clears away.

Is there a reason that the front isn't showing up on Netweathers radar as anything other than showers?

This is the current image:

[Mark Neal.]

It's the PPN over Scotland, the area with the -6c uppers digging on behind it.

Also, the further west we can get this the better.

Many Thanks. That's where my attention will be faced. Although keeping a close eye on those showers in the midlands.

[fergieweather]

Is there a reason that the front isn't showing up on Netweathers radar as anything other than showers?

This is the current image:

Because it activates with shortwave trough from W later and that's part of the forecast complexity

[AWD]

Is there a reason that the front isn't showing up on Netweathers radar as anything other than showers?

This is the current image:

The two radars are from different times, the one I posted is from earlier on today, the one you've posted is current.

The main point to take is that its not the PPN we have now that's expected to be wintry, but the stuff coming down from the north later in the night & into the morning.

EDIT; Ian describes it better in far less words.

Edited December 4, 2012 by AWD