Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[Nights King]

despite a few moaners on the model threat about the cold and snow being put back the latest nae looks interesting.

A brief chance for a few in N.Devon tomorrow, then a higher chance on Wed, due to cold front that has 850's of -6 or so behind it, nae peps up the front nicely. (it will come down if it comes off like the nae is saying, but its just out of the 48hr time frame at 06z.

The 12Z nae should be out in the next hr or two.

It might well get downgraded, but to be fair the meto Gm model has hinted at this for Wed.)

Cotswolds, bristol and cardiff most likely areas and only a covering 1cm or so, but a handy start to the first week of winter before the better stuff comes.

Thanks iceberg for that interesting prospect You say bristol,cardif, cotswolds area, is that where decent ppn is forecast to be or are uppers just less conducive for central west country and somerset area?

Could be an interesting evening awaiting the updated NAE..

[AWD]

I'm in Swindon working for the day today & it certainly doesn't feel mild here.

The wind is rather bitter on the face.

All eyes to Thursday then, nice to see some early potential even if it doesn't happen. Fingers crossed.

[Andrew snow hope]

Im going out on a whim and will say we will have some snow chance on Thursday. Could be interesting. Lets wait and seeeeee

[Iceberg]

12Z nae out and increases the chances for a bit of white stuff tuesday over exmoor.

For wed the chances are still there, similar areas, mendips and salisbury plain as well, but only a very light covering if anything at all.

[Bristawl Si]

Don't believe the hype until it becomes reality - then u won't be disappointed.

Yes i'm being pessimistic - i just wonder whether our little corner will be 'left out' this winter for any proper snow action -hope my hunch is incorrect come end of Winter.

[fergieweather]

despite a few moaners on the model threat about the cold and snow being put back the latest nae looks interesting.

A brief chance for a few in N.Devon tomorrow, then a higher chance on Wed, due to cold front that has 850's of -6 or so behind it, nae peps up the front nicely. (it will come down if it comes off like the nae is saying, but its just out of the 48hr time frame at 06z.

The 12Z nae should be out in the next hr or two.

It might well get downgraded, but to be fair the meto Gm model has hinted at this for Wed.)

Cotswolds, bristol and cardiff most likely areas and only a covering 1cm or so, but a handy start to the first week of winter before the better stuff comes.

Yup - interesting times ahead, we reckon

[fergieweather]

Showers / t-storms tomorrow could be very bothersome for areas where we don't need a further 10-15mm or more (Somerset etc.). Beyond that, good agreement now between NAE and GM on occlusion progress as it reverses-tack Tues night to Weds AM from Scotland southwards. Modified NAE has consistent wintry signal by around Weds AM rush-hour from uplands of E Wales across uplands of Glos; an awkward forecasting montage complicated by diurnal cooling of rain, sleet and snow, before it heads south to potentially give a little more sleet/snow over uplands into Wilts and E Somerset etc.

Edited December 3, 2012 by fergieweather

[jethro]

[gottolovethisweather]

Hill snow this week and low-level snow next week.

I think many folk would be happy with that particular scenario, I know I would.

Get the cold in and then the snow should come, besides I also like the idea of snow on the hills and watching snow-cover further North slowly build southwards.

[124alex]

Just looked at charts looks good for snow around the 13th onwards

[fUnKy]

Dank here today... very dank

[Nights King]

Hill snow this week and low-level snow next week.

I think many folk would be happy with that particular scenario, I know I would.

Get the cold in and then the snow should come, besides I also like the idea of snow on the hills and watching snow-cover further North slowly build southwards.

Hmm not convinced we shall see much to be honest, next week is along way into FI GTLW and we know what often happens at that range....

Also if it did snow around rush hour on high ground I'd be in bristol working in the rain by then...

[Snow shut work]

Model thread winds me up.

Last 2 days things were to evolve this weekendish T96, now its all back to showing charts on the 11th Dec onwards.

At this rate, next wednesday should be a turning point however its unlikely to verify and ECM/GFS charts will be shown for xmas eve saying 726ft of snow due.

Realists will realise that those who do this for a living should have their comments taknen first touch as opposed to those whose hobbie it is.

I'll hobble back to my high horse now.

[AWD]

I've just got home from work & thought I'd pop into the MOD thread for the latest. Bad move, just come out with a headache & confusion about where were heading.

3 days into winter, its cold, the outlook is cold, we have potential hill snow this week, and a potential easterly next eeek (albeit probably dry initially down here). I can think of worse starts to winter. :p.

Anyway, focus on the next few days for now whilst we wait for some clarity hopefully about next week.

I'm up in Gloucestershire Wesnesday so I may strike lucky. Definetly interesting times ahead.

Did Ian mention thunderstorms too?

[gottolovethisweather]

Hmm not convinced we shall see much to be honest, next week is along way into FI GTLW and we know what often happens at that range....

Also if it did snow around rush hour on high ground I'd be in bristol working in the rain by then...

My glass half full approach usually works and I tend to think of anything crytallised and white, other than hail falling from the sky is indeed a bonus. However, if you were to study the ensembles which are simply based on model trends then it is undeniable that the air will at least be cold enough on a few occasions. That is more than 50 per cent of the problem solved, we then just require lady luck to shine on us. I think she will and as long as we don't get lost in the hype, there will be many occasions this December, where folk will be twitching their curtains and lamp-post watching.

EDIT: whilst unlikely to produce much in the way of snow, there may well be few flakes in that stuff out West, which is steadily moving Eastwards into lower dewpoints.

Edited December 3, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Model thread winds me up.

Last 2 days things were to evolve this weekendish T96, now its all back to showing charts on the 11th Dec onwards.

It can certainly feel like that, even to the best of the model analysts and seasoned pros, believe me! I am not including myself in amongst them, but I feel I know who has the knowledge and who does not. The models have been all going their independant way of late and that will reflect in people's analysis. Some overhype and some keep their feet on the ground which can also add to the confusion.

Stick with a select few posters and you won't go far wrong. The main point to note however, are the ramifications of when one weather system does not do as modelled from a timeframe from t-6 right through to t-384 will change things.

I hope that helps.

I've just got home from work & thought I'd pop into the MOD thread for the latest. Bad move, just come out with a headache & confusion about where were heading.

3 days into winter, its cold, the outlook is cold, we have potential hill snow this week, and a potential easterly next eeek (albeit probably dry initially down here). I can think of worse starts to winter. .

Anyway, focus on the next few days for now whilst we wait for some clarity hopefully about next week.

I'm up in Gloucestershire Wesnesday so I may strike lucky. Definetly interesting times ahead.

Did Ian mention thunderstorms too?

Yes, yes, yes and yes I think should cover your questions and expectations. Albeit, with the usual caveats and I best leave it there as someone with far greater expertise apepars to be lurking.

Edited December 3, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Looks like its this little occlusion that could bring a wintry flavour early Wednesday morning;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif

Had potential with cold air digging in behind and the 528DAM to the west.

[gottolovethisweather]

Looks like its this little occlusion that could bring a wintry flavour early Wednesday morning;

http://www.wetterzen...ics/brack0a.gif

Had potential with cold air digging in behind and the 528DAM to the west.

That is a curious chart to have in place at t-36 with as many as 4 fronts in the proximity of the UK and the 528 DAM line well south as well.

I am getting more optimistic by the minute but I can't put snowflakes over every person's house in this regional, unfortunately.

Marginal to start, trending colder and potentially colder still is how things look at the moment with the caveat that much of it is in FI.

[AWD]

Taken from Ian Fergusson in the MOD thread.

http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=147074

You can see by T39 that the snow symbols (blue dots) are getting ever closer to the West Country,

Nothing major of course, but an early winter flurry possible for some.

[lfcdude]

Taken from Ian Fergusson in the MOD thread.

http://forum.netweat...ttach_id=147074

You can see by T39 that the snow symbols (blue dots) are getting ever closer to the West Country,

Nothing major of course, but an early winter flurry possible for some.

Need them blue dots south abit...

[AWD]

Need them blue dots south abit...

I expect if Ian posted a T42 & T45 chart they would be further south. The weak front is travelling north - south.

[gottolovethisweather]

Need them blue dots south abit...

Don't pick holes.

They're coming slowly but surely.

[dancing daisy]

I would very selfishly like you all to pray for no lying snow on Monday please. After receiving loads of applications my dream job has been whittled down to 4 applicants, including me. I want this job! And although I am willing to walk 3 miles through 3 foot of snow to get it I fear it would ruin my suit.

Ta

I don't know about double figures today, that wind made it freezing.

Edited December 3, 2012 by dancing daisy

[Nights King]

I would very selfishly like you all to pray for no lying snow on Monday please. After receiving loads of applications my dream job has been whittled down to 4 applicants, including me. I want this job! And although I am willing to walk 3 miles through 3 foot of snow to get it I fear it would ruin my suit.

Ta

I don't know about double figures today, that wind made it freezing.

It was never meant to be 3 foot

I am sure you would be willing to take one for the team just this once and 'endure' a couple of inches of snow with your well gritted roads daisy...

[dancing daisy]

Nope! It's a little country place which won't see gritters and I REALLY want the job.

Sorry, but as some sort of bribe to the snow fairy I will accept cancelled carol concerts and cinema trip in order to have a snow free day Monday, that's the best I can do.