Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[Polar Bear]

Ooh and yes we definitely now have rain.. What a surprise hey?

[latitude]

Is it the Bristol channel which causes the M4 boundary or is it something to do with Wales soaking up the Atlantic warming influence? Does that make any sense or am I talking gibberish?

Oh, and not a flake to be seen at the Reindeer parade but there was the odd snowflake blowing around in the breeze yesterday.

Weather forecasters use it as a geographical reference so viewers can understand whats happening. Nothing to do with the B Channel or motorway

[fromey]

Evening all.

just had a chuckle at the Metcheck winter forecast.

here is some of what has been said.

Discussion

There appears to be a growing trend for cyclogenesis (development of areas of low pressure) to continue occurring across the Eastern Atlantic section. The net result is for cyclolysis (decaying of areas of low pressure) to occur around the UK. This is likely to be the predominant reason for a wetter and milder than average winter this year.

Long range CFS jet stream models indicate a more Southerly location of the polar front this Winter and a more Northerly location of the sub-tropical jet stream. The net effect is likely to be a higher frequency of mid-latitude storms with lower frequency of blocking patterns. This supports our forecast.

Labrador T850 anomaly forecasts indicate temperatures of +2 to +3 during February 2013. This has been consistent over the past 2 months and has been backed up by global ensembles models. This supports our forecast for significant cold spells in February 2013.

Low frequency of blocking patterns are expected this Winter, especially at the start of the period. (Really)

fromey

[Dorsetbred]

And so the rain has almost ceased

[iowpompeylee]

Rain for us all this week.all eyes on next week.....nuff said

[divadee]

Lovely rain here :-( wish it was the white stuff.

[gottolovethisweather]

Of course IMBY as the region as whole varies, look at the recent snowfall in Bath & Bristol, even as close as Sherborne, yet down here nowt. I still stand by my assesment , the last two years have borne witness to that. Right now I'm still not seeing anything that might suggest any difference IMBY.

Well at least that is now clear. I also imagine, simply just a few miles from your location, folk could witness something completely different.

I'm right on that blinking M4/Berkshire Downs border and believe me, I can feel your pain at times when it comes to snowfall.

And then there's the South Coast but I best not go there just now.

The future output looks most interesting to me and that is not from a IMBY perspective either.

just been outside to do the litmus test for sleet/snow, aka the car windscreen test, and can report zilch...even with some altitude (500ft give or take) there is not even a hint of anything wintry, just plain old steady rain

AJ, does this test come with a set of instructions?

[fromey]

Rain for us all this week.all eyes on next week.....nuff said

[AWD]

The Meto 3-5 day forecast for the South West;

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Unsettled with showers each day and perhaps some more persistent rain on Thursday night. Becoming colder with an increasing chance of snow, and some sharp overnight frosts. Generally breezy throughout.

Updated: 1523 on Sun 2 Dec 2012

A certain word being mentioned there.

[Bristawl Si]

The Meto 3-5 day forecast for the South West;

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Unsettled with showers each day and perhaps some more persistent rain on Thursday night. Becoming colder with an increasing chance of snow, and some sharp overnight frosts. Generally breezy throughout.

Updated: 1523 on Sun 2 Dec 2012

A certain word being mentioned there.

See Ian's post in the Mod Disc thread - interesting!

[AWD]

See Ian's post in the Mod Disc thread - interesting!

This from another Meto weatherman;

@WCWeather Met Office say rain on Friday in the south with snow above 500 metres will clear. Icy overnight.

@WCWeather latest from MO suggests temporary snow on back edge of cold front over Salisbury Plain as it moves through and clears

Something to keep an eye on for sure.

[Bristawl Si]

This from another Meto weatherman;

@WCWeather Met Office say rain on Friday in the south with snow above 500 metres will clear. Icy overnight.

@WCWeather latest from MO suggests temporary snow on back edge of cold front over Salisbury Plain as it moves through and clears

Something to keep an eye on for sure.

Could be one of those "developing situations" over next few days?

[fUnKy]

Well here in Plymouth the temperature has risen over two degree in an hour. Feels pretty mild now and some drizzle too.

10.2 degrees

Edited December 2, 2012 by fUnKy

[fUnKy]

Well at least that is now clear. I also imagine, simply just a few miles from your location, folk could witness something completely different.

I'm right on that blinking M4/Berkshire Downs border and believe me, I can feel your pain at times when it comes to snowfall.

And then there's the South Coast but I best not go there just now.

The future output looks most interesting to me and that is not from a IMBY perspective either.

AJ, does this test come with a set of instructions?

At least you get teased. Snow doesn't even look at me, not a sly, seductive flutter or even a cold icey stare

[Nights King]

This from another Meto weatherman;

@WCWeather Met Office say rain on Friday in the south with snow above 500 metres will clear. Icy overnight.

@WCWeather latest from MO suggests temporary snow on back edge of cold front over Salisbury Plain as it moves through and clears

Something to keep an eye on for sure.

Interesting but 500 metres.... That narrows things down to zero towns/villages in england Flash up north is not even that high...

[otleygas]

Interesting but 500 metres.... That narrows things down to zero towns/villages in england Flash up north is not even that high...

Maybe we could build a really tall tower to catch the snow and channel it down to us

[Nights King]

Maybe we could build a really tall tower to catch the snow and channel it down to us

In a cooled refrigerated tunnel ...

[otleygas]

In a cooled refrigerated tunnel ...

We can only come up with the ideas... It's up to others to make them work!

Still. Outside chance of a few flakes on thurs.

[Dorsetbred]

Noticeable very mild this morning after the past few days, feels positively balmy out there, currently 10.2C..

Edited December 3, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[dancing daisy]

I know I'm in the minority but it was lush going out to take my daughter to work this morning without having to de-ice the car.

Some snow Thursday would be fab, a nice snowy long weekend which will enable me to lie around on the sofa and eat crisps so fingers crossed here

Ahh a quick look with my uneducated eye says no snow for us Thursday either, just more rain.

Edited December 3, 2012 by dancing daisy

[fromey]

Morning all,

its 10.1c here,roll on the rest of the week

fromey

[AWD]

Mild at 9.6c here. Glad it isn't lasting for long though.

Bit of interest for our most elevated members on Thursday.

[fUnKy]

9.4 degrees, medium cloud cover in Plymouth.

[Andy Bown]

I was wondering if today might be the only double figure day of the month, however that hasn't even happened here with 9.4c the max first thing!

So I'm predicting that this will be the mildest day of December, see me on the 31st if I'm wrong - and I'm willing to be wrong.

[Iceberg]

despite a few moaners on the model threat about the cold and snow being put back the latest nae looks interesting.

A brief chance for a few in N.Devon tomorrow, then a higher chance on Wed, due to cold front that has 850's of -6 or so behind it, nae peps up the front nicely. (it will come down if it comes off like the nae is saying, but its just out of the 48hr time frame at 06z.

The 12Z nae should be out in the next hr or two.

It might well get downgraded, but to be fair the meto Gm model has hinted at this for Wed.)

Cotswolds, bristol and cardiff most likely areas and only a covering 1cm or so, but a handy start to the first week of winter before the better stuff comes.