Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[khodds]

Well, this time last week the models showed a snow event over us for tonight and this time last week I was looking forward to my works Christmas meal which would of been tonight. Seems both have been cancelled! However I guess the models weren't too bad - there may be snow for some tomorrow night, just not over our region!

So, the models have tipped once again into a coldies favour... Wonder what the 12z models will bring.

Off to nurse my shoppers headache now. Christmas shoppers and Bristol = headache.

[AWD]

When was the last white Christmas in the West Country?

I know its miles away yet but the models are starting to look very very interesting as we get into Mid December onwards, & along with a very positive post in the Strat thread by Chio, it makes you wonder whether this could be the year.

If I find a bookies with decent odds, I might be tempted to go with a tenner.

[Frosty_wsm]

When was the last white Christmas in the West Country

Well as far as I'm concerned, 2010 was for my location, yes I know it wasn't officially a white Christmas as it didn't snow on the day but what a wintry scene it was, lots of snow on the ground with clear blue skies, what a stunning scene that was!

actually I find it strange how the scene I was greeted to when opening the curtains on xmas day that year wasn't classed as a white Christmas officially yet if a location has no snow on the ground yet has a few flakes falling then it's classed as a white Christmas! If you picture them 2 scenes in your head for a moment, I know which one I would class as a white xmas!

Edited December 1, 2012 by Smartie

[MP-R]

2010 had 100% snowcover at Christmas and 2009 had about 50-60% at my location but neither of those occasions actually had snow falling.

[isleofwightsnowgal]

Hey guys

I'm really hoping for some snow this month it just makes Xmas more special!

No idea whether we've got a genuine chance here on the iow as it tends to hit everywhere but us

Fingers crossed tho!!

[AWD]

Mmmm........ Interesting, wonder if this could produce a slight dusting for the Cotswolds, Forest of Dean and down into Wilsthire & the Mendips?

[gottolovethisweather]

When was the last white Christmas in the West Country?

I know its miles away yet but the models are starting to look very very interesting as we get into Mid December onwards, & along with a very positive post in the Strat thread by Chio, it makes you wonder whether this could be the year.

If I find a bookies with decent odds, I might be tempted to go with a tenner.

No such thing.

[noggin]

When was the last white Christmas in the West Country?

I know its miles away yet but the models are starting to look very very interesting as we get into Mid December onwards, & along with a very positive post in the Strat thread by Chio, it makes you wonder whether this could be the year.

If I find a bookies with decent odds, I might be tempted to go with a tenner.

I'm getting quietly excited, too. The prospects aren't looking too bad at all.

However, to increase my chances for snow I have moved house and am now a couple of miles north of the M4, instead of 1 mile south of it! Fingers crossed that this tactic will work.

[lfcdude]

I'm getting quietly excited, too. The prospects aren't looking too bad at all.

However, to increase my chances for snow I have moved house and am now a couple of miles north of the M4, instead of 1 mile south of it! Fingers crossed that this tactic will work.

Dedication right their my friends...

[AWD]

I'm getting quietly excited, too. The prospects aren't looking too bad at all.

However, to increase my chances for snow I have moved house and am now a couple of miles north of the M4, instead of 1 mile south of it! Fingers crossed that this tactic will work.

Downend to Coalpit Heath?

[gottolovethisweather]

I'm getting quietly excited, too. The prospects aren't looking too bad at all.

However, to increase my chances for snow I have moved house and am now a couple of miles north of the M4, instead of 1 mile south of it! Fingers crossed that this tactic will work.

I hope you settle in well, to your new abode.

Here's to the M4 battleground events from here on in then.

Edited December 1, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[jethro]

I'm getting quietly excited, too. The prospects aren't looking too bad at all.

However, to increase my chances for snow I have moved house and am now a couple of miles north of the M4, instead of 1 mile south of it! Fingers crossed that this tactic will work.

I take it that's an open invitation to stay for all of us south of that blessed barrier....

[AWD]

Cold but sunny start to the morning, although no frost to report this time.

Expecting rain later on along with slightly less cold temperatures.

[Polar Bear]

Very gold and frosty start to the morning here in Newbury. Plenty of ice on the cars which is now melting off in the glorious sunshine. Not sure of precise temps reached but around -1 and I suspect just outside Newbury into the countryside temps were lower. Best get on out there and enjoy the cold crisp morning :-D

[AWD]

This is why I'm still refusing to rule out snow for some of us in the West Country later this week.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121202/06/99/prectypeuktopo.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121202/06/102/prectypeuktopo.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121202/06/105/prectypeuktopo.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121202/06/108/prectypeuktopo.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121202/06/105/uksnowrisk.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121202/06/108/uksnowrisk.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121202/06/108/uksnowdepth.png

Now I know for most of us the above precip charts still show rain or sleet, but this goes to show how a westward shift of the pattern can change everything. Only a minor tweak here and more of us could see a bit of the white stuff.

Notice the charts show a good example of the M4 boundary too. I expect if this verified, the Mendips, Cotswolds, Exmoor etc could get a covering.

I will stress that snow is an outside chance this week, with a far greater chance of it not happening, but as long as we see these corrections in the model output, I am not ruling out some snowfall for a lucky few of us later in the week.

We can but hope.

EDIT; an just for fun, a channel low at the weekend.

http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=146734

God I love the 06z. lol. :p

Edited December 2, 2012 by AWD

[khodds]

Well that's at least 2 days the models are showing cold so hopefully things are on the up! Lovely morning here, low of -1.6 over night. Bit gutted its going to rain later

[gottolovethisweather]

Well that's at least 2 days the models are showing cold so hopefully things are on the up! Lovely morning here, low of -1.6 over night. Bit gutted its going to rain later

Were things ever on the way down?

I see nothing to be over concerned about, as bar tonight into tomorrow's rain, the trend is generally cold and some dry, hopefully sunny days. Conversely, there will be days with borderline snow events too.

I'd take the above any day, over what we have endured during the last 8 months.

As AWD states, this week is looking very interesting.

Edited December 2, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Look how the M4 is trying its best to stop the 528Dam line passing south of it;

http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=146738

:p

[khodds]

Thanks GTLTW - guess I was picking up on the confusion in the model thread. Guess what I meant was, at least the models are showing more consistancy!

[lfcdude]

Look how the M4 is trying its best to stop the 528Dam line passing south of it;

http://forum.netweat...ttach_id=146738

As Chris Kamara would say... Unbelieving Jeff!

Just typical... before it was built... Was it already a dividing line....

[AWD]

As Chris Kamara would say... Unbelieving Jeff!

Just typical... before it was built... Was it already a dividing line....

Probably used the A420 instead. lol. :p

[Sainsbo]

Another cold night, with temperatres down to -4C.

[AWD]

Has anyone seen Ian's latest post in the MOD thread?

"10-15 day timeframe, Scandinavian block setting up with an easterly flow of real purpose and frontal inscursions from the SW"

Sorry, but can I start drooling already?

[lfcdude]

Has anyone seen Ian's latest post in the MOD thread?

"10-15 day timeframe, Scandinavian block setting up with an easterly flow of real purpose and frontal inscursions from the SW"

Sorry, but can I start drooling already?

RAMPPPPPPPPPPPPPP

Hopefully Ian will pop on some time with his take on Thursday Friday... probably dismiss all hope for us with the m4 getting mentioned but yeah..

Oh just seen..

fergieweather, on 02 December 2012 - 11:36 , said:

Not UKMO view based on very latest from them: some transient low-level & (more substantive) upland (500m+) snow Thursday, but rain for the majority (certainly in South). Their MR view is actually somewhat 'milder' for the following weekend (average temps, no snow issues). More tellingly, latest 10-15d prognosis now leans towards Scandinavian block establishing with real purpose; easterly flow setting-up and attempted frontal incursions to SW. MOGREPS now in step with EC Monthly and so the cold, blocked signal remains headline to our MR forecasts.

Edited December 2, 2012 by lfcdude

[Nights King]

Lets hope we get a couple of tweaks here and there as looks like we are on wrong side of marginal all this week.