Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[Sungirl]

Me.

If you put your location into your avatar, it would help people give you a more definitive answer to your question; Somerset's a big county with widely varying weather.

You may be right about your height but it's worth checking here: http://www.streetmap.co.uk/ Just enter your postcode.

Height above sea level is worked out from Newlyn in Cornwall, not the local coastline.

Thanks for the link - where is the info about height above sea level as all I can see is the map...

[legritter]

Try holding down control when you click on the link for it.

Failing that you could delete cookies, but I hate telling people to do that if they have spent years customising their browser.

thank you /JOHN W .i will try that ,sorry late replying but wife using computer.

[Mesoscale]

I'm only about 1m asl! Did your snow In February settle? Areas just inland from Portsmouth had a short lived dusting, but here we got just rain

It settled for a while, it was a small amount though. It was on a thrusday evening/friday morning. I was out in it for Southmaptons Carnage.

[jethro]

Thanks for the link - where is the info about height above sea level as all I can see is the map...

Put in your postcode, this will bring up a map too close to see the heights. Click once on the negative button on the zoom control on the right hand side, this will take the scale out so you can see the contour lines (orange wiggly lines with numbers on them) see where your house is in relation to these lines, trace it back until you come to a number (also in Orange), this number is your height above sea level in meters.

[SunnySouthCoast]

You may be right about your height but it's worth checking here: http://www.streetmap.co.uk/ Just enter your postcode.

Height above sea level is worked out from Newlyn in Cornwall, not the local coastline.

Why is it worked out from Cornwall & not my local coastline?? Surely my true height above sea level is from the sea down the road from me!

It settled for a while, it was a small amount though. It was on a thrusday evening/friday morning. I was out in it for Southmaptons Carnage.

Yeah I remember the night it happened as I was lampost watching & we only had rain, but my sister text me to say it was snowing where she lives further inland.

[jethro]

Why is it worked out from Cornwall & not my local coastline?? Surely my true height above sea level is from the sea down the road from me!

Yeah I remember the night it happened as I was lampost watching & we only had rain, but my sister text me to say it was snowing where she lives further inland.

That may be your true height absl but the one officially referred to and referenced in weather forecasts is the Newlyn one. The origins of it can be found here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QNH

I'd be curious to know what, if any difference there is for your location???

[Sungirl]

Put in your postcode, this will bring up a map too close to see the heights. Click once on the negative button on the zoom control on the right hand side, this will take the scale out so you can see the contour lines (orange wiggly lines with numbers on them) see where your house is in relation to these lines, trace it back until you come to a number (also in Orange), this number is your height above sea level in meters.

Great, thank you - 79m ASL

[SunnySouthCoast]

That may be your true height absl but the one officially referred to and referenced in weather forecasts is the Newlyn one. The origins of it can be found here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QNH

I'd be curious to know what, if any difference there is for your location???

Well from the link you posted it says I'm 5m asl, which is a bit odd as it says all the way down to the beach is also 5m asl. All other sources before have said I was around 1-2m asl. According to Wikipedia:

Being a seaside city, it is low-lying: the majority of its surface area is only about ten feet above sea level. The highest natural point on Portsea Island is Kingston Cross (21 feet), although the road surface over Fratton railway bridge reaches 25. There are, therefore, dangers that rising sea levels as a result of global warming could cause serious damage to the city.

[AWD]

Rather than post an IMBY post in the MOD thread, I thought I would post this here instead;

If tonight's 12z verified, this is the weather the South West would get over the next 10 days;

Tonight, with residual coud cover, temperatures will largely stay above freezing, excluding rural most areas which may nip down that low. A ground frost is likely for most, an air frost probably not for most.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121127/12/18/ukmintemp.png

Tomorrow will be dry;

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121127/12/27/ukprec.png

With just a chance of a shower scraping the Cornish coastline. It will be a chilly day as northerly winds make themselves known across the region;

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121127/12/27/ukwind.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121127/12/27/ukmaxtemp.png

Temperatures in rural areas could be a couple of degrees lower than the values shown above.

Tomorrow night there looks like being a widespread air frost as temperatures plummet to freezing & below for most;

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121127/12/42/ukmintemp.png

Cornwall and parts of Devon perhaps the exception.

Thursday is very similar to tomorrow. A dry and largely sunny day, although some places may find themselves with fog to burn off during the morning.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121127/12/51/ukprec.png

A front approaching from the west may make the sun more hazy in Cornwall later in the day. A cold day for all, with most places remaining in low single figures;

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121127/12/51/ukmaxtemp.png

Thursday night is likely to see another air frost for most of us, with temperatures again plummeting;

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121127/12/66/ukmintemp.png

Friday is where the models divide a tad. The GFS shows a band of rain slowly encroach from the west, nothing too heavy, but feeling rather raw;

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121127/12/75/ukprec.png

This would be of all rain and nothing else for our area;

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121127/12/75/h850t850eu.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121127/12/75/hgt500-1000.png

It would still feel very cold however. The ECM though shows a slower progression of this rain band, and also has it slightly further SW, meaning colder air becomes a little more established across the region before the rainband hits us;

There is a small chance this could fall as something a little more Wintery over the highest elevations in our region. Thickness is still a little too high for anything more than that.

Slightly less cold air therefore is across the region Friday night, especially on the GFS run;

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121127/12/90/ukmaxtemp.png

Which would limit any frost to a ground frost in all except the most frost prone places.

Saturday should be a mostly dry day;

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121127/12/99/ukprec.png

With temperatures from the GFS suggesting increasing slightly to something just below the seasonal norm:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121127/12/99/ukmaxtemp.png

The ECM however would probably be a degree or two colder than the above. Fog again could be a problem in the morning.

Saturday night temperatures drop back again by a degree or two as winds fall light. Eastern counties of the region could see another air frost, whereas western counties would only see a ground frost at best;

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121127/12/114/ukmintemp.png

Sunday I think could be very slightly colder than Saturday, ahead of less cold air approaching from the west. The ECM & GFS both show this;

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121127/12/123/ukmaxtemp.png

Thereafter things become much too complicated at this stage to forecast with much detail for now. Both GFS & ECM do forecast an Atlantic influence to our weather down here with temperatures recovering to nearer the seasonal norm;

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121127/12/147/ukmaxtemp.png

As things stand currently, the breakdown is uneventful for us, with anything of a Wintery note currently modelled to fall much further north. With the timing and angle of Atlantic attack still undecided, the position of any snow event also remains unconvincing. However, being realistic, I cannot see the SW seeing much in the way of anything Wintery unless the models output the pattern a good distance further SW. This as it stands however, remains an outside chance.

Beyond the Atlantic breakdown and into the following weekend, both models agree on a return to colder conditions, at somewhat varying degrees. The Meto also offer hints of a return to colder conditions. This is too far out to pin any further detail on for now, but it does give us something to watch, with the potential for a Wintery outbreak which could include the SW & is supported by various background data. Mid December I say the time to focus on for our region.

However, one should note that no "true" mild weather is forecast for the foreseeable, and little rain is forecast for the short term, which IMO are both positives to take from the output tonight.

So enjoy the cold and frosty nights to come and he relief in rainfall. Developments into December remain very interesting, even for us in the SW. A seasonal outlook it is.

Thanks.

Edited November 27, 2012 by AWD

[katemart]

Well, the dog has just walked me round the park and I can tell you it's brass monkeys out there tonight!

[khodds]

Thank you very much AWD for that in depth post I can live with seasonal!

[gottolovethisweather]

Well I've had a quick glance of how the GFS 12z ensembles have been trending over recent days and whilst this region will thankfully be able to dry out for a few days, as we approach the weekend, things become much less clear. It is certainly possible that a small splattering of some wintriness could turn up as early as late Friday and into the weekend. At this stage, wintriness would best describe the precipitation and it would only be snow to the highest elevations. In spite of this, what comes before can easily influence what happens at >t+72, i.e. the timescale in question.

So in simplistic terms, the general weather trend as I see it (based on solely GFS 12z analysis and using Somerset and Berkshire locations as examples) fog, slight frosts by night and a general drying out is the near-term signal. From the 3rd December onwards, I simply cannot gain anything reliable, due to general model suite and ensemble scatter. ***

***Friday 30th November through to Sunday 2nd December is still causing a slight dilemna beforehand, however as aforementioned.

Edited November 27, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Why is it worked out from Cornwall & not my local coastline?? Surely my true height above sea level is from the sea down the road from me!

Yeah I remember the night it happened as I was lampost watching & we only had rain, but my sister text me to say it was snowing where she lives further inland.

I'm not sure how to get my height, I entered my post code but can't seem to find my night?! Hears to a very snowy next wk!!

[Nights King]

Outlook looks abit on the bland side but at least its cooler with less rainfall in the short term. I hold my hands up it's my fault because I topped up the anti freeze and got my winter gear out and ready in the car!

4.5c currently.

[Bristawl Si]

Outlook looks abit on the bland side but at least its cooler with less rainfall in the short term. I hold my hands up it's my fault because I topped up the anti freeze and got my winter gear out and ready in the car!

4.5c currently.

No it's my fault - i bought some snow boots at clarks village, Street on Saturday!

[katemart]

Outlook looks abit on the bland side but at least its cooler with less rainfall in the short term. I hold my hands up it's my fault because I topped up the anti freeze and got my winter gear out and ready in the car!

4.5c currently.

I bought a garden parasol in June 2007....

[Polar Bear]

No it's my fault - i bought some snow boots at clarks village, Street on Saturday!

... And I bought a very lovely warm coat to wear in very cold and wintry conditions last month... We are all to blame . Am going to get my summer wardrobe out to see if I can swing things...

[fromey]

evening all,

looks like we are chasing FI again, bit of a let down but the positive to be taken from this is its stopped raining , a chance for us all to dry out.

fromey

[Lyn-M]

....and I bought a new pair of wellies today....

[Nights King]

evening all,

looks like we are chasing FI again, bit of a let down but the positive to be taken from this is its stopped raining , a chance for us all to dry out.

fromey

Yes back to the cider... far more reliable than the models! Drink enough and I swear i can almost see white walkers strolling through the villiage!

[jethro]

Well from the link you posted it says I'm 5m asl, which is a bit odd as it says all the way down to the beach is also 5m asl. All other sources before have said I was around 1-2m asl. According to Wikipedia:

That site uses OS maps which I think are the most accurate source for this info. The 5m down to the beach would be 5m above sea level, as measured from Newlyn.

[fUnKy]

what a pleasant day! Needed a break from all that rain and might get two wears out of this pair of jeans! Whoop Woo!

[Nights King]

That fax is slightly more encouraging...

http://www.meteociel...ax96s.gif?27-12

528dam line is through cornwall at 96 hours and then through west somerset/devon at 120 hours.

Edited November 28, 2012 by mullender83

[dancing daisy]

I am laughing my head off after spending 5 minutes on the model thread. It's only weather people!

I am actually looking forward to some bright, dry and crisp winter days.

I have bought nothing winter/snow related, so I am not your jinx.

[AWD]

Don't go in the MOD thread. People very upset that there isn't a blizzard forecast next week. lol.

Cold start this morning with a patchy ground frost.