Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[Somerset Squall]

My village was actually on the BBC and ITV local news today, wasn't expecting that LOL. Yes, this projected rainfall sun/mon is concerning me also, the river is still very very full here and the very deep floodwater is yet to even begin to recede- more rain is the last thing we need here.

[AWD]

Cold & frosty start to the day.

Time to go and scrape the Ice of the car windscreen now, one of the more uninspiring tasks of winter!

[fUnKy]

Coldest night recorded on my thermometer yet (going since 1st octish) 1.9 degrees min. Probably freezing away from my enclosed walled in yard

[Gibby]

A gorgeous morning here in the West Country, albeit cold and frosty earlier on. Little wind and currently 1.7C having fallen to -1.5C earlier.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk

[AWD]

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2012/11/29/basis00/ukuk/tmin/12120206_2_2900.gif

Looks like Saturday night could be our coldest night of this cold spell. Could be a rather harsh frost in rural places.

[Gibby]

For those interested I have placed my own Winter Forecast in my website under the link below.

http://www.norton-ra...co.uk/page6.htm

Go easy it's my first ever and has been produced studying much cross matching past records and the charts available on the Web. My head's on the block by the 13,000 inhabitants of Midsomer Norton and Radstock and surrounding areas so I hope I am fairly near the mark.

Edited November 29, 2012 by Gibby

[jethro]

I know it will change but for those like me who like a glimmer of hope to start the day, this morning's reading on the "Will it snow" feature say there's a 50% chance for here on Sunday. I hope it stays like that and moves the risk further down the slopes of the Mendip's, it would be spot on timing for the Reindeer parade in Wells at lunchtime on Sunday. Perfectly festive

[gottolovethisweather]

I know it will change but for those like me who like a glimmer of hope to start the day, this morning's reading on the "Will it snow" feature say there's a 50% chance for here on Sunday. I hope it stays like that and moves the risk further down the slopes of the Mendip's, it would be spot on timing for the Reindeer parade in Wells at lunchtime on Sunday. Perfectly festive

I was questioning whether back edge snow could be brought about by the passing fronts come late Monday too. So IMO, the general consensus has to be that things are still very much up in the air, even into the weekend, yet alone beyond.

[Nights King]

I know it will change but for those like me who like a glimmer of hope to start the day, this morning's reading on the "Will it snow" feature say there's a 50% chance for here on Sunday. I hope it stays like that and moves the risk further down the slopes of the Mendip's, it would be spot on timing for the Reindeer parade in Wells at lunchtime on Sunday. Perfectly festive

You can never be sure on mendip I would say there is a slither of a chance but only briefly. Lovely morning today after a good frost and -2.5c over night. currently 1.8c

[khodds]

Morning everyone, had a low of -1.6c today, but what a gorgeous day! Seems the models are looking more favourable but we will see what the later runs bring. So will it be rain or snow on sunday? I'm thinking rain, but I won't be going to the Reindeer Parade - ill be having lovely roast dinner at my parents! Yummy! Let's hope the backgrounds signals stay in place and produce a nice white Christmas

[SunnySouthCoast]

Coldest night so far here, down to 2.5C. Gorgeous crisp sunny day today though & 5.5C currently, great to wrap & up & go for a walk along the beach

[Andy Bown]

My village was actually on the BBC and ITV local news today, wasn't expecting that LOL. Yes, this projected rainfall sun/mon is concerning me also, the river is still very very full here and the very deep floodwater is yet to even begin to recede- more rain is the last thing we need here.

We saw that report on BBC Points West, one of my wife's aunts lives at Curry Rivel so we've driven through Muchelney.

Hope it's receding compared to what the news report showed, imagine if we had a sudden deep freeze - you could open a grand skating rink!

[fergieweather]

PS some transient wintriness possible for our districts even to lower levels Sun-Mon but emphasise it's primarily a rainfall event

[jethro]

Rain, yes. Some hill snow on the leading edge above 400m from the N Midlands northwards. Subsequent showers Monday PM again with snow 400m+ and some sleet/hail to low-levels. There's never been any suggestion of this event bringing a snow-bearing prospect in any meaningful sense, at least for southern districts. UKMO currently considering warning status for parts of SW regarding rainfall. Cornwall especially prone, for example. Longer MR broadly cyclonic and rather cold into 6-10d period; hints of drier thereafter with more hints of W'rly bias in analysis of prevailing Lamb types (still fairly cold however; as UKMO says (abstracted version here of more detailed summary) for nearer-term MR:

"EC ens becomes less cyclonic at the end of next week (day 10) and this improvement is especially evident towards the end of the trend period. There is even some evidence of ridging in the south, but further support is needed here. MOGREPS continues a rather unsettled theme at this time, as does GFS, but there is at least a tend emerging... A closer inspection of clusters still suggests blocking is a possibility with the long wave trough more likely over the UK, particularly in the trend period with occasional cold N’ly outbreaks interspersed with periods of mobility. Note in the upper air means the idea for south shifted flow (see fig 1 below). It is a rather cold type, with 850 HPa WBPT around 2C in northern Scotland and 4 to 6C over southern England, and the 528 DAM 500 HPa thickness remains fairly close throughout. EC Op and control are a good fit to a strong central cluster on latest plumes and considered a good guide to broad trends in the 6-10 day period....into 10-15d trend period, still uncertain.... ENS still suggest a cyclonic bias with cyclonic-centred the most probable. While still quite a spread of wind directions on lamb types there is perhaps more of a westerly bias than recently. So the most likely scenario is for a spell of unsettled, often cold weather. Snow probable at times, particularly over high ground in the north. Some milder spells of weather are possible mainly in the S/SW, and there is a hint of drier conditions later in this period."

So what you're saying Ian is that on Sunday in Wells, when the Reindeer's are nodding, as the brass band strikes up with the opening chords of In The Bleak Mid Winter, it should be listened to as an ode with a post modern twist......There goes my festive mince pie munching, they'll be no choice but to seek solace in copious amounts of mulled wine.

[124alex]

Nice clear, cold, crisp night Temp: 0c Dewpoint: -1c going to be cold tonight!

[Nights King]

Temperature dropping like a stone!

Cloud moving in after mid night though so that will temper it some what.

-1.9c

As for sunday I've seen similar setup to these many times when I've been hopeful of mendips providing me with a few hours transient snow only to find 10 mins before it turns!

Edited November 29, 2012 by mullender83

[ARTDEMOLE]

0c.Calm..Clear...Moon out with Jupiter tonight..Shall be out on the patio with them for at least a couple of hours..

[AWD]

Going to be a cold one tonight. Frost already forming under clear starry skies.

Lurvely.

[124alex]

Oc and dp: -3c

[khodds]

My weather station has the snow symbol up! First time I've seen that! I know it won't happen

0c DP -3c or it looks like -3c - can it be -3?!

Thanks for the informative reply earlier Ian btw.

[124alex]

My weather station has the snow symbol up! First time I've seen that! I know it won't happen

0c DP -3c or it looks like -3c - can it be -3?!

Thanks for the informative reply earlier Ian btw.

What day has it got the snow symbol up for just out of interest?

[khodds]

NOW! But think its only because of the temp and DP. Don't think therer is any precipitation around but if there was it would fall as snow

[Andy Bown]

I wonder how low it'll get tonight?

-1.0c at present which is the lowest temperature since 18th March!

Edited November 29, 2012 by Andy Bown

[124alex]

Temp: -2.2c Dewpoint: -3c

[Aceman]

My weather station predicts snow within 12-48 hours so brace yourselves

Edit: should have read previous posts.....it'll still snow though because Oregon says so

Edited November 29, 2012 by Aceman