Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[Dorsetbred]

Cant see us being anything but on the "warmer" side of anything this week.

[latitude]

As posted above, but will repeat here from fegie weather "Not UKMO view based on very latest from them: some transient low-level & (more substantive) upland (500m+) snow Thursday, but rain for the majority (certainly in South). Their MR view is actually somewhat 'milder' for the following weekend (average temps, no snow issues). More tellingly, latest 10-15d prognosis now leans towards Scandinavian block establishing with real purpose; easterly flow setting-up and attempted frontal incursions to SW. MOGREPS now in step with EC Monthly and so the cold, blocked signal remains headline to our MR forecasts."

Could this actually be a winter where the cold stays put and anything from the Atlantic is just all snow instead of rubbish snow to rain crap! ...really hope so!

[noggin]

Downend to Coalpit Heath?

Yes.

Dedication right their my friends...

I can't help it. I think it comes of being born in an exceptionally cold and snowy time/place. (Devon. February 1956)

I hope you settle in well, to your new abode.

Here's to the M4 battleground events from here on in then.

Thank you!

I take it that's an open invitation to stay for all of us south of that blessed barrier....

Oh, yes. It'll be a bit of a squash though, as I have downsized and now only have two bedrooms. I do, however, have a large garage so just bring a sleeping bag and a packed breakfast!

[noggin]

As posted above, but will repeat here from fegie weather "Not UKMO view based on very latest from them: some transient low-level & (more substantive) upland (500m+) snow Thursday, but rain for the majority (certainly in South). Their MR view is actually somewhat 'milder' for the following weekend (average temps, no snow issues). More tellingly, latest 10-15d prognosis now leans towards Scandinavian block establishing with real purpose; easterly flow setting-up and attempted frontal incursions to SW. MOGREPS now in step with EC Monthly and so the cold, blocked signal remains headline to our MR forecasts."

Could this actually be a winter where the cold stays put and anything from the Atlantic is just all snow instead of rubbish snow to rain crap! ...really hope so!

When Ian says ".....easterly flow setting-up and attempted frontal incursions to SW....", is that what would result in a "battleground" scenario?

[Nights King]

When Ian says ".....easterly flow setting-up and attempted frontal incursions to SW....", is that what would result in a "battleground" scenario?

Yes it sounds like that although i can just see it now... The m4 is going to be a warzone!

Still promising signs ahead.

[SunnySouthCoast]

Last night dropped to 1.5C again here, so still no air frosts but at least another ground frost making the rooftops glistening white this morning

Was nice & sunny until lunch time too but now cloudy & waiting for the rain to come later

[gottolovethisweather]

Thanks GTLTW - guess I was picking up on the confusion in the model thread. Guess what I meant was, at least the models are showing more consistancy!

Don't worry, that is also a consistent theme. The longer you stay around, you will eventually realise who possesses the greatest knowledge. Having said that, the weather doesn't always go by what the models suggest it should.

[AWD]

Thursday is going to be the day of most interest down here for the coming week.

GFS has a front coming down from the NW sliding SE, with quite widespread snowfall for western areas of the country;

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2012/12/02/basis06/ukuk/rart/12120618_2_0206.gif

FAX chart also suggests potential to me, with light winds, snowfall could fall to lower levels regardless of marginal upper air temps;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

If we can get the UKMO model to sharpen that trough slightly and slide that front more SE before it reaches us we could be in business. Will be a very interesting model viewing session this evening.

Long term, well......... Incredible northern blocking;

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zENS11-15day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif

[AWD]

Yes it sounds like that although i can just see it now... The m4 is going to be a warzone!

Still promising signs ahead.

In an easterly, I suspect the A34 will be the boundary for us.

Edited December 2, 2012 by AWD

[gottolovethisweather]

Cant see us being anything but on the "warmer" side of anything this week.

IMBY maybe?

Whilst I agree, my glass half full approach suggests nothing is set in stone and it is probably sitting at 50:50 right now.

The ensembles in the short-term prove that nothing is clear-cut right now. I am especially interested in the way the UKMO are interpreting the week ahead and once the following - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColor is updated, the truth may well be out there.

[jethro]

Is it the Bristol channel which causes the M4 boundary or is it something to do with Wales soaking up the Atlantic warming influence? Does that make any sense or am I talking gibberish?

Oh, and not a flake to be seen at the Reindeer parade but there was the odd snowflake blowing around in the breeze yesterday.

[gottolovethisweather]

In an easterly, I suspect the A34 will be the boundary for us.

Be it, the M4 or A34 or whatever, it is of course the North Downs or Cotswolds which are leading to the discussion in reality. I am certainly in a position to tell all of you, when such cirumstances had affected my location, however, there are far too many dates to discuss.

Here's to the GFS 12z and all it entales.

Edited December 2, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Nights King]

In an easterly, I suspect the A34 will be the boundary for us.

Don't go and jinx it!

I have taken a back seat with regards to looking at each run since this cold spell went a little pete tong for the first part and shall try not to get dragged into the excitment until wednesday evening if it still shows anything for us by then.

It's too much on pressure on my mental state of late!

[gottolovethisweather]

When Ian says ".....easterly flow setting-up and attempted frontal incursions to SW....", is that what would result in a "battleground" scenario?

Yes.

[noggin]

Yes it sounds like that although i can just see it now... The m4 is going to be a warzone!

Still promising signs ahead.

Oh, my poor nerves.

I find the battleground thing very nerve-racking. I think I'd rather have "no chance of snow" over "it might, it might not, it might ,it might not". The former, whilst very disappointing, is much less wearing on the nerves!

.......and I have to be honest, if I'm watching the news and other regions have had snow and we haven't, then I get quite grumpy and miserable.

[AWD]

Oh, my poor nerves.

I find the battleground thing very nerve-racking. I think I'd rather have "no chance of snow" over "it might, it might not, it might ,it might not". The former, whilst very disappointing, is much less wearing on the nerves!

.......and I have to be honest, if I'm watching the news and other regions have had snow and we haven't, then I get quite grumpy and miserable.

Be prepared then, and grab a can. Scotland & NE England look like getting a decent dumping tonight.

Still though, plenty of interest & potential for us down here in what looks like shaping up to be a cracking month.

On another note, the GFS 12z doesn't offer us any chance of the white stuff on Thursday unfortunetly.

However, plenty more twists & turns yet I'm sure, it was, and still is s long shot anyway.

Edited December 2, 2012 by AWD

[AWD]

Just started raining here so nothing wintry here. Still feels bitter outside though.

[Andy Bown]

What's falling on the Mendips?

Light rain at 3.3c in Warminster although I had expected the temperature to be rising by now and it's actually been on a steady decline

since peaking at 4.1c at around 14.00 while the sun was still shining.

[Frosty_wsm]

Look how the M4 is trying its best to stop the 528Dam line passing south of it;

http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=146738

:p

Can somebody nuke that bloody m4, it's getting on my nerves! lol

[Nights King]

What's falling on the Mendips?

Light rain at 3.3c in Warminster although I had expected the temperature to be rising by now and it's actually been on a steady decline

since peaking at 4.1c at around 14.00 while the sun was still shining.

Mainly rain here with a touch of sleet mixed in but nothing to right home about but I expected nothing else, Just have to hope thursday swings in our favour.

[Dorsetbred]

IMBY maybe?

Whilst I agree, my glass half full approach suggests nothing is set in stone and it is probably sitting at 50:50 right now.

The ensembles in the short-term prove that nothing is clear-cut right now. I am especially interested in the way the UKMO are interpreting the week ahead and once the following - http://www.metoffice...cePressureColor is updated, the truth may well be out there.

Of course IMBY as the region as whole varies, look at the recent snowfall in Bath & Bristol, even as close as Sherborne, yet down here nowt. I still stand by my assesment , the last two years have borne witness to that. Right now I'm still not seeing anything that might suggest any difference IMBY.

Edited December 2, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[Mesoscale]

Its early yet, its a good sign that snow/sleet is falling so early in the season.

Someone said there was snow flurries in Southampton but ive been looking out my window and ive not seen anything.

The lamp posts are far enough away that it would be hard to make out any small amount of snow.

Edited December 2, 2012 by Mesoscale

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I take no responsibility if this does not come off..

[Dorsetbred]

Its early yet, its a good sign that snow/sleet is falling so early in the season.

Someone said there was snow flurries in Southampton but ive been looking out my window and ive not seen anything.

The lamp posts are far enough away that it would be hard to make out any small amount of snow.

I guess it';s possible as shown here:

http://en.allmetsat....d.php?icao=EGHI

Temperature is 2C, so snow flakes ....maybe

It's 4C down here so rain... definitely

Also as the front moves in from the SW, everything will turn to rain, looking at the temperature gradient across the southern UK.

Edited December 2, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[A.J]

just been outside to do the litmus test for sleet/snow, aka the car windscreen test, and can report zilch...even with some altitude (500ft give or take) there is not even a hint of anything wintry, just plain old steady rain