Model Output Discussion - 28th November

[chiffer]

Have to say the models were showing some what better plan last week, but im still happy with what there showing now and its alot better predicament than last year! The 1st of December will be quite cold and for me at the moment that's enough. Models keep bringing the cold.

[Hammer]

Taking a look at what GFS 12z showed last week for today at 6pm. Is it correct to say that the modelling around Greenland and a lack of accuracy in that area has not helped in terms of what was possible. Do we lack data in that region or have wealth of it?

21st Nov GFS 12z

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=174&code=0&mode=0&heure=12&jour=21&mois=11&annee=2012&archive=1

28th Nov GFS 12z

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0

[IDO]

Looking at the mean surface temps for GFS for day 8 to 15 it has the south, SW and West of the UK at 5-10c. Are 2m temps about 3-4c higher?

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png

Average to above average for those areas for week 2, up till mid December on the 12z GFS. Hope it's a mild outlier, as the 10-15c band is closer than any cold!

Edited November 28, 2012 by i'm dreaming of...

[Frosty.]

well I've read around 5 of the last page-enough for me and confirms my rare appearances into this thread.

reality-about zero

Expectation as far as the moon from some folk

genuine attempt to give detailed summaries-very few and far between sadly

Read me in other threads and I'll try and pop a link in here.

enjoy the playground

Briefly

Its got colder EXACTLY around the time the anomaly charts suggested TWO weeks out, and by the weekend looks to get as cold as predicted then with frost for many, and bonus some WILL get snow, but then such a post as this is a waste for many in here.

Well I tried to give a reasoned view of the cold snap and the rather cold unsettled few weeks ahead and i'm shocked at the glass totally empty view of some on here, even though the gefs mean looks solid for a chilly outlook and the latest meto are talking about some snow in the outlook, anyone would think we were stuck with a mild zonal outlook with a long draw of swly winds from the azores for the next month. I guess some were taken in by the ecm 12z from last night showing a repeat of jan 1987, pure fantasy, but it's still a very interesting outlook and the next 4 days we have a cold frosty snap, enjoy it.

[Methuselah]

To be fair John, the anomaly charts and model outputs were suggesting something a little more notable than a 2 day cold snap before the Atlantic came rolling in again, I can understand the negativity this time around. There really is nothing exciting showing on the model outputs unless you enjoy cold, wet weather. Big turn around from the models in the last day or two

Or, perhaps some folks were simply too keen on ramping-up any runs that did show Snowmageddon, but ignored those (a sizeable number) that didn't?

Edited November 28, 2012 by Rybris Ponce

[Féar Sneachta Bán]

Just an observation from a total newbie here (who loves snow!) If 3 days ago the outlook was almost set in stone for cold and now it's mild, then surely the same can easily happen to the current "milder"charts being shown. No point getting disappointed! It adds to the excitement in my opinion!

[Iceaxecrampon]

I think that there's a certain group of folks that post on this forum that are interested in 'snow' and not 'weather'. That's why only the serious enthusiasts post when the charts show mild. Weather is Weather, mild or cold and it matters not a jot to me whatever the output, I love it all.

Find you lot very knowlegable and helpful from a mountain weather aspect Gibby is right the true "enthusiasts" are whatever the weather so to speak - yes the froth was in evidence last week and I as many got sucked into excellent model potential.Its just that abled bodied folk in the North are fairly lucky and can have a winter event albeit an effort to attain 2000 ft plus altitude to experience them.Thought I might just forget FI in future and only look at T37 charts - but I guess I can't resist it.....

Apologies for OT.

Once again thanks.

Ian IAC

[Paul]

No issues as to whether you're a cold fan, a mild fan, a snow fan, a storm fan or an all round weather fan - all are welcome to post in here but what we need to do is keep this thread on topic and on an even keel. So if it's all about being a bit peeved or over the moon about the current outlook then please post into the winter emotions thread:

http://forum.netweat...inter-emotions/

If your post is all about the models, then this is the place

[Jupiters Winter]

The only one positive I have noticed was the GFS 12Z shifted towards the higher resolution NAM in the short term.. Maybe more of the same in coming runs for at least the short term to deliver better...

[The Eagle]

GEM pretty good at 144hrs. Could be the precursor to a good ECM hopefully.

http://meteociel.com/modeles/geme_cartes.php

Edited November 28, 2012 by The Eagle

[Paul]

It's no fun for anyone when a post gets deleted - I don't enjoy it, no-one else in the team enjoys it* and I'm pretty sure anyone who's spent time making a post doesn't enjoy it either. But seriously, help us help you - I posted a friendly request/reminder 10 minutes ago and since that point 5 of the 6 posts have had zero (and I mean zero) to do with the models. Please just spend a second thinking about what you're posting and if its not about the models, post it into another thread - there's lots to choose from.

Thanks!!

Edited November 28, 2012 by Osbourne One-Nil
*I quite enjoy it

[Iceaxecrampon]

Meto - Cumbria for 1-12-12

"......Cold in the west but more cloudy in the east, especially at first, with perhaps some snow showers. Extensive and persistent hill fog in the east coupled with snow showers will cause very poor visibility during the morning. Northerly winds 25-30mph with gusts of 35-40mph adding to the chill effect. Freezing level around 200-300m........"

Thats not a mild outlook...! and a welcome change from what we have had the last couple of weeks and it is certainly not tropical out there tonight.

Chance of a dusting for the tops - definately not snowmaggedon for the UK though.

Ian

Edited November 28, 2012 by Iceaxecrampon

[IDO]

I prefer the GFS control run in FI: http://modeles.meteo...-0-1-288.png?12

The mean ensemble looks cool zonal:

Nothing really cold.

Edited November 28, 2012 by i'm dreaming of...

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012112812/ECH1-72.GIF?28-0

last chance saloon to salvage anything from the atlantic-

ECM is west of the GFS - but is it enough..

S

[jessandjon]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012112812/ECH1-72.GIF?28-0

Enough for what? :-s

last chance saloon to salvage anything from the atlantic-

ECM is west of the GFS - but is it enough..

S

[Isolated Frost]

Plenty of snow shrs off n/ne scotland with nearby trough activity and a cold air flow, -7c/-8c uppers nearby- saturday afternoon

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

I prefer the GFS control run in FI: http://modeles.meteo...-0-1-288.png?12

The mean ensemble looks cool zonal:

http://modeles.meteo...21-0-288.png?12

http://modeles.meteo...21-1-288.png?12

Nothing really cold.

Looking at those mean charts you have posted I am also getting more concerned at the growing strength of the PV. I really hope I am reading the charts wrong because the purples have been occuring in FI on the GFS for a day or two now.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel...CH1-96.GIF?28-0

T96 we have backed the pattern a bit further west- the perfect arc of cold out of scandi- but it doesnt quite extend to the UK-

If only the shortwaves off the states had been a tad further west & slower-

S

120 is still west of the GFS- however because the high that builds slightly ahead of the fronts it will lift the cold out & stop that curve of cold reaching the UK-

Still its not to shabby at 120.- nicely amplified.

Edited November 28, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Frosty.]

Plenty of snow shrs off n/ne scotland with nearby trough activity and a cold air flow, -7c/-8c uppers nearby- saturday afternoon

Yeah lets all go to northern scotland this weekend, a spot of skiing in the grampians

On a serious note, a cold frosty spell ahead and some dangerous freezing fog forming as the air continues to chill. I think i've been looking at different models to some people today, the outlook remains at least rather cold and unsettled with rain, sleet and snow, any milder interludes will be just that..interludes. The further north you go, the less chance of anything mild disrupting the cold outlook.

[egret]

I have not looked back at the model outputs for a similar period in 2010 but, from recall, we were seeing fairly similar ebbing and flowing of chances for cold. In the end and apparently against the odds the cold emerged as if without warning. I cannot help wondering if the volatility in relatively short timeframe which we have experienced this week could end up with a similar rapid firming up into a very cold spell.

I wish i had the time to dig back to compare the detail.

[Isolated Frost]

528 air over NW Scotland- some heavy snow shrs in the highlands and scottish/nw england hills with uppers around -4c, milder elsewhere

strong signal however for a nw-se jet and a stable euro trough still

[mcweather]

I think we ought to be a little retiscent about writing off cold in the medium term. I note gp's earlier post that anything beyond five days at the moment is pretty unreliable. This is certainly reflected in the model out put when the ECM op goes from 60mph blizzards to polar maritime without as much as a by your leave. One would have to say that the disrupted pv is probabaly causing the models a lot of problems. If you are going to be downhearted about cold prospects I wouldn't let it get to you too much I think we will soon have another situation to get our teeth into. Veterans on here know that many of these suggested scenarios don't always come about however this time round unlike the first two months of last winter the background signals suggest there will a plenty more bites of the cherry over the coming weeks so just hang on in there and let winter get here properly and you may be pleasantly surprised.

[TEITS]

I have not looked back at the model outputs for a similar period in 2010 but, from recall, we were seeing fairly similar ebbing and flowing of chances for cold. In the end and apparently against the odds the cold emerged as if without warning. I cannot help wondering if the volatility in relatively short timeframe which we have experienced this week could end up with a similar rapid firming up into a very cold spell.

I wish i had the time to dig back to compare the detail.

I feel the model output out to early next week is now set in stone i.e cold at first, briefly less cold, turning colder again. However its the period between +144 and +240 that has me fasinated and I still believe a very cold E,ly is in with a chance after the colder NW,lys.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

I feel the model output out to early next week is now set in stone i.e cold at first, briefly less cold, turning colder again. However its the period between +144 and +240 that has me fasinated and I still believe a very cold E,ly is in with a chance after the colder NW,lys.

What gives you that impression TEITS? I would really appreciate it if you could explain what makes you thing cold e,lys could occur. Thanks GSL

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012112812/ECH0-144.GIF?28-0

Not the end of the world at 144- the 0c isotherm miles & miles away & the cold air stilll close-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2012112812/JN180-21.GIF?28-12

So close from the JMA- watch the atlantic slide along the cold.

S