Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012

[Methuselah]

Can we get back discussing what the models are saying, please?

[VillagePlank]

I should add that because that low line goes below the minimum line, it is so sufficiently skewed to cold, that we should reject the mean as a measure of central tendency, and switch to the median. Really! Which incidentally puts the central point of the vast majority of the run about -7 850hPa.

Of course, that might also indicate that we should reject this ensemble run .... as ever more runs required.

[Summer Sun]

12z is underway from GFS sit tight folks and enjoy the run will it be snowmageddon or a backtrack? Hopefully the snow prospects will increase tonight

Further snow looks possible during the evening and early hours

Edited December 5, 2012 by Gavin.

[Wilxy]

12z starting to roll out, hopefully we can continue to trend towards blocking, should be a entertaining run thats for sure.

[london-snow]

Okay first major hurdle is 96+ can that sw dive south east quickly...

[Summer Sun]

Plenty of hill snow over Scotland tomorrow the ski slopes are having a good start this year

High pressure is doing its best to build in the Atlantic and also over Scandinavia more importantly

Snow in the south on Friday morning?

Edited December 5, 2012 by Gavin.

[liltbrockie]

I've got a bad feeling about this! Everything looks less... amplified!

[Heisenberg]

Please dont forget...Its ONE run!!

Scream if you wanna go faster....hold on tight.

[jessandjon]

I've got a bad feeling about this! Everything looks less... amplified!

Don't say that been looking forward to it all day

[snow drift]

Don't say that been looking forward to it all day

Dont panic. There is little difference out to T66.

[Wilxy]

I've got a bad feeling about this! Everything looks less... amplified!

Nothing gone wrong yet don't panic. 72h+ is when it gets complicated.

[Heisenberg]

So when are we thinking FI starts at the moment? T120? or sooner??

[Tom Jarvis]

The suspense in here is killing me lol. You could cut the tension with a snowflake

[Summer Sun]

Very little difference between the 06z and 12z up to t72 so far so good!

[Wilxy]

Heights over East scandi slightly better so far.

Edited December 5, 2012 by TomW

[karlos1983]

here we go then, good luck all +72 important stage...

[Met4Cast]

I've got a bad feeling about this! Everything looks less... amplified!

What?

It's practically the same as the 06z at the moment. Can you please wait before jumping in and writing posts like this?

[london-snow]

I've got a bad feeling about this! Everything looks less... amplified!

I've got a bad feeling about this! Everything looks less... amplified!

Why dont you just watch the run unfold, Before jumping the gun and sending everybody in a spin before you know the outcome.

No change so far up to 72+

[Heisenberg]

When are we thinking FI starts at the moment? Beyond T120? Or sooner?

[ITSY]

by +78:

- greater heights over Greenland

- Siberian HP making greater inroads into Scandi

- Lower pressure of Italy

- Slider low not quite as quick, but quick nonetheless.

Game on so far.

[Wilxy]

Shortwave slightly further west which should be good.

[london-snow]

Up to 84+ and that sw is behaving itself dropping se

[snow drift]

Shortwave slightly further west which should be good.

Yes correct. Stronger easterly?

[Summer Sun]

Looking good so far at t90 with pressure building over Scandinavia

Not mega cold but not warm either!

[Chris K]

Please can people hold back before posting things frame by frame on how they feel it may turn out...let the period of interest run, then analyse & evaluate after. Really helps amateurs like myself learn that way rather than it feel all over the place.