Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012

[london-snow]

Nearly over the first hurdle at 96+ steady she goes se...

Edited December 5, 2012 by london-snow

[Methuselah]

Please cut-out the personal slights - they are not necessary!

[kold weather]

Looking good at 96hrs. Barring a sudden shortwave developing we should be in game for this run.

[london-snow]

Tell you what though if anything the GFS has handled it past 6 runs fantastically well up to the back end of reliable thus far very impressive with a good deal of agreement.

Edited December 5, 2012 by london-snow

[Harsh Climate]

Yes theres slight changes early in the run, but there's no way of knowing what repercussions these will have further on in the run.

Edited December 5, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[Met4Cast]

Everything slightly further West, high pressure to the NE looking better aligned too. Corker of a run coming up! Lets hope UKMO will be better this evening too!

[Harsh Climate]

I hope that shortwave that developed between scandinavia and iceland on the 6z at 144h doesn't become problamatic on this run!

[Methuselah]

Tell you what though if anything the GFS has handled it past 6 runs fantastically well up to the back end of reliable thus far very impressive with a good deal of agreement.

Not quite, ls...there's still time for disaster? Not that I see any!

[bradymk]

I hope that shortwave that developed between scandinavia and iceland on the 6z at 144h doesn't become problamatic on this run!

what shortwave? GFS 12z trickling out frame by frame with hundreds infront of there computer screens refreshing every second anxiously hoping for a good run, anyway this run looks good so far, crucial few frames coming up but looks good.

[ITSY]

I just can't help but post this:

120 hours!

[Continental Climate]

pretty impressive at T120 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png!! although we are creeping into the unreliable timeframe now, but all looking looking good for next week!!

Hope that east german shortwave dosent get involved too much

[london-snow]

Not quite, ls...there's still time for disaster? Not that I see any!

Dont say that haha !

Yes quite also RP the agreement out to 120+ has been great so far..

Edited December 5, 2012 by london-snow

[warrenb]

Game on

[Wilxy]

Atlantic looks a bit stronger in this run.

[Harsh Climate]

Scandinavian High and it's ridge slightly further north, this is good news as the only way I can see this possible easterly failing is due to our scandinavian high sinking too far south with the main easterly feed into europe while we remain dry.

[Frosty.]

It hasn't started yet !

We know that but it will and in a way it has started because some of us have had surprise snowfalls already which is a bonus, just to whet our appetite before the main course arrives later next week, hopefully sooner.

[Harsh Climate]

what shortwave? GFS 12z trickling out frame by frame with hundreds infront of there computer screens refreshing every second anxiously hoping for a good run, anyway this run looks good so far, crucial few frames coming up but looks good.

Thankfully it's not appeared on this run!

[kold weather]

Atlantic looks a bit stronger in this run.

It does look a little stronger, the PV is extending further east...may not be a bad thing though as long as it undercuts of course!

[Snowman.]

No shortwave above the High looking god guys!

[Continental Climate]

HAHA shows what i know that shortwave over germany is actually helping us out http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png!! Not often we can say that is it ?

[london-snow]

Atlantic looks a bit stronger in this run.

Disagree you compare the 6s to now not much change re Atlantic...

[ITSY]

Scandinavian High and it's ridge slightly further north, this is good news as the only way I can see this possible easterly failing is due to our scandinavian high sinking too far south with the main easterly feed into europe while we remain dry.

Don't know about that. If that high is too far north, 'our' high may not link as well, become more unstable and succumb to LPs from the Atlantic. Not likely, but not impossible. So far it's looking good though. The stronger the wind between the Euro low and the Scandi high, the lower our temps and greater north sea convection. anyway way too far out for hunting for convectional snowfall

[Harsh Climate]

What a 24/36 hours model watching, back then we was looking at an easterly at around 240h, now it's coming into play at t132 hours !

[Continental Climate]

Come to papa you lovely minus 10's http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1382.png!! I class it as a true cold spell when the air turns blue

Edited December 5, 2012 by Continental Climate

[Snowman.]

Wait their is a dent over Iceland!