Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[tonbridgemole]

Russian high losing its grip on Europe and is heading east.....Iv'e changed my mind about it heading this way now...Extreme cold....Look at this.......http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/20771143

Edited December 18, 2012 by moley66

[Polar Front]

High Five from Kazakhstan....................

[UV-RAY]

Starting to get fidgety now, no snowfall here so far and the last time I saw a decent fall was last December.....even that was marginal and brief. What worries me is that we haven't even managed to get a toppler scenario, I'd quite happily take one of those at the minute.

Oh and trend for heights to become established over Spain i.e......

is a worry as it can eat up weeks of winter. I really don't think we're in a good position at the minute.

You risk the wrath of those who can only see cold on the horizon CC, it appears actually commenting on what the models ate showing is fast becoming a no no on here. I love cold and snow as much as anyone, but blind optimism and straw clutching won't bring blizzards our way no matter how much we would like it to.

[Cheshire Freeze]

You risk the wrath of those who can only see cold on the horizon CC, it appears actually commenting on what the models ate showing is fast becoming a no no on here. I love cold and snow as much as anyone, but blind optimism and straw clutching won't bring blizzards our way no matter how much we would like it to.

I'm not posting as much in the model thread anymore. I got abused quite a bit the other night for simply putting forward what is being shown in the NWP. In the end Ian Fergusson commented in support of what I was saying. If my analysis isn't wanted nor needed then there's not much point in me doing so.

[cerneman]

I'm not posting as much in the model thread anymore. I got abused quite a bit the other night for simply putting forward what is being shown in the NWP. In the end Ian Fergusson commented in support of what I was saying. If my analysis isn't wanted nor needed then there's not much point in me doing so.

I am learning how read models and in my opinion your analysis is much needed to give some balance, Can understand why some not wanting to see any opinion that not lead to cold outcome, After all search for cold thread, nothing to do with unbiased assessment from some posters, Edited December 18, 2012 by cerneman

[LomondSnowstorm]

Anyone remember the early February 2001 scenario? Seems like the models are in that mode?

Helen Young said no cold on the way

She had back-pedalled somewhat, 3 or 4 days later.

Funny, a very clear parallel between those two setups evident this evening, with the GFS almost identical to the eventual outcome and another case of the UKMO v the GFS.

[Matty M]

The train is coming, the train is coming.

[Froze were the Days]

At least the CFS v2 model has gone away from the zonal train for January and offers up something better...until that changes tomorrow!

[Jason T]

Winter 1697/1698

& year 1698 A severe winter (1697/98). Using the monthly mean values of CET, all three winter months (Dec, Jan & Feb) can be classified as 'very cold'; that is December 2.5degC; January 0.0degC and February 0.5degC, giving a seasonal mean of 1.0degC (NB: series only to nearest half degree C at this point in the record). When compared with the 1961-90 long period average, this represents an anomaly of -3.1 degC, and places it roughly 10th coldest in that 350+ year series. In this instance, the severe cold extended to Scotland as well, with great hardship at the time and throughout the year of 1698.

In general, frosty weather with heavy snow and frozen rivers occurred during much of this January (of 1698) in south-east England (and perhaps elsewhere - record not available). From the 10th January 1698, snow with deep drifts reported across the southeast of Britain. There is a report made at the time [17CWx ex Lamb] that the ice was 20 cm thick (presumably not measured in cm) on the coast of Suffolk.

[ This would imply that British Isles weather was dominated by a blocking high extending westwards over the country from Russia (using mean monthly reconstructed mslp maps).]

Frost, hail & snow persisted from January to May in this year (1698).

1698 reputed to have been the coldest year between 1695 & 1742.

First week of February. 1698: ice 8 inches (circa 20cm) thick on the sea coast of Suffolk.

There was deep snow all over England on the 3rd May (after snowfall up to 6 inches/15cm in Yorkshire on the 1st - and a keen frost) and the spring of 1698 was the most backward for 47 years; further snowfall 13th May in London and Yorkshire, with corn/fruit crops damaged. More snow 19th in Shropshire - described as 'deep';

Before the cold/snow got going, a wet / stormy period on the 3rd/4th January 1698.

1813/1814

(winter) 1. One of the four or five coldest winters in the CET record. See also 1683/84; 1739/40 and 1962/63. Particularly cold January to March: CET values, with anomalies ref. 1961-90 averages: Jan: -2.9(-6.7), Feb: 1.4(-2.4), Mar: 2.9(-2.: We had to wait until 1962/63 for comparable, extended cold periods, in particular for the January values. The last time that the 'tidal' River Thames froze over sufficiently to hold 'frost fairs' etc. The activities surrounding the fair lasted well into February, but around 5th/6th February, a thaw set in and the ice started to break up, helped by rain: some people were drowned and many booths were destroyed. The loose ice did much damage to shipping of all sizes on the river. (After this time, the removal of the old London Bridge in 1831, plus other work enabled the Thames to increase it's flow, and freezing of the tidal stretches has not occurred since.) Most commentators say this was the 'last great frost fair' held on the Thames. The greatest frost of the 19th century commenced on the 27th December 1813; the onset of the frost was accompanied by thick fog.

2. Probably one of the snowiest winters in these islands in the last 300 years (1947 comparable). Much disruption in January in particular due to the snow. Reports from Perth (Scotland) spoke of low temperatures in the first week of January: by the end of the week, snow was falling in Aberdeenshire and a few days later reports from Kelso (Borders) spoke of heavy snow blocking roads to Edinburgh. By Monday, 17th January, the storm had become so severe that the newspapers opined that this storm was the worst since 1795. In Dublin, the snowfall was so severe that people were trapped inside their houses, and it is reported that Canterbury (Kent) was cut off for at least six days.

Heavy snow fell during the period 3rd to 5th January, 1814 and this was followed by a temporary thaw which only lasted one day; the frost then returned (often severe over snow cover) and persisted until the 5th February. The Thames was frozen solid from 31st January to 5th February and a frost fair was held on the river; a thaw took place between 5th and 7th February and the drifting ice damaged shipping considerably. [Note also that other rivers had ice problems, such as the Mersey & the Severn - the Thames always gets the headlines! Mention in chronicles of skating at Bristol and horses being ridden over these rivers: no doubt others in the country were similarly affected.]

In addition to the heavy frost, fog was an additional hazard, which commenced (in London) on the 26th/27th December, and only lifted on the 3rd January, 1814. On the 27th December, the fog was so dense (under 20 yards/metres) that the Prince Regent (later George IV), who was on his way to visit the Marquis of Salisbury at Hatfield House, near St. Albans, had to turn back at Kentish Town and return to Carlton House. This short journey took several hours and one of the Prince Regent's outriders fell into a ditch at Kentish Town. The fog was still dense on the 28th December and on that night the Maidenhead coach, which was returning from London, lost its way and overturned. Dense fog continued on 29th December and the Birmingham mail coach took nearly 7 hours to go from London to just past Uxbridge (west Middlesex). Traffic was almost at a standstill in London on the nights of 30th and 31st December; many coachmen had to lead their horses and others only drove at a walking pace. Only pedestrians who knew the locality well dared venture forth, and even some of them lost their way. The fog was finally cleared by a cold northerly wind, accompanied by heavy snow, which set in on the 3rd January 1814 (though Lamb in ref. 6 says this occurred 5th/6th).

Edited December 18, 2012 by Jason T

[cerneman]

Reading about Charles Dickens born 1812, Says he experienced 6 White Christmases in his early childhood, 1814 may have been one, His stories been thought the reason why we associate Christmas and snow, Scrooge[A christmas carol] being story that comes to mind, Snowy streets of London,

Edited December 18, 2012 by cerneman

[SnowObsessor90]

Let me guess the 18z is awful isn't it. Can't say I'm all that surprised.

Edited December 18, 2012 by Anonymous21

[peterf]

i'm not going to moan,i'm more concerned for the folk at risk of flooding.never a good time for it,but just before Xmas is disastrous.

[SnowObsessor90]

So all eyes down on the 00z's then. Personally I'm expecting the worst just like I always do regardless of whether the general outlook is good or bad but we'll see...

[Weather-history]

It would have been nice to see this type of battle from 17 years ago

[cerneman]

World forecast to end this week,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Hope it scuppered by pesky short wave

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Typical autumn weather coming up really, until mid Jan, who knows then maybe winter, Dec and first half of Jan are really autumn, hopefully be mainly dry in my area, but bad for the SW, reminds me a bit of autumn 2000

[cerneman]

Typical autumn weather coming up really, until mid Jan, who knows then maybe winter, Dec and first half of Jan are really autumn, hopefully be mainly dry in my area, but bad for the SW, reminds me a bit of autumn 2000

Yes you are right, Think 22 December first day winter,

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes you are right, Think 22 December first day winter,

not a real start date as such, but by mid Jan things tend to get colder and the sea temps, I still wish Xmas was not associated with snow, because rain is the likely weather at Xmas

[WhiteFox]

not a real start date as such, but by mid Jan things tend to get colder and the sea temps, I still wish Xmas was not associated with snow, because rain is the likely weather at Xmas

To be fair, rain is the likely form of PPN at any time of year, not just at Xmas! Snow is always the exception in these Isles, which sometimes is forgotten...

[cerneman]

Was really good see deep snow on ground for Christmas Day 2010, For Dorset was treat to behold, Having spell snowy weather during course of any winter is always nice, If snow was just standard winter fare then would not be so enjoyable, I visit Oslo most winters to stay with family, still get excited when snows, But people there just not bother, But couple years ago turned rather mild and rained for few days, Actually became talking point that was unseasonable mild for January

[mcweather]

It would have been nice to see this type of battle from 17 years ago

I remember this one very well I had the great good fortune to spend that Christmas and new year in Scotland. The cold was incredibly intense with a Maximum temperature of Minus 12°C following an over night minimum of minus 20°c on my friends Perthshire farm on one morning beytween xmas and new year

.

The other outstanding memory was seeing the mighty River Tay at Perth frozen from bank to bank. Awesome spell!!

Edited December 19, 2012 by mcweather

[SnowObsessor90]

If it's any consolation at least it looks like this current pattern we're stuck in could well be brought to halt earlier than last year in January. Where we go from there is anyone's guess.

Edited December 19, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Summer Sun]

not a real start date as such, but by mid Jan things tend to get colder and the sea temps, I still wish Xmas was not associated with snow, because rain is the likely weather at Xmas

As the saying goes snow is more likely at Easter than Christmas

[snow freak]

Getting thouroughly sick of all this mild and wet weather now. When will it ever stop for heaven's sake. I would not be surprised if this winter is a total washout (literally) with hardly any cold or snow. Our seasons just seem to be permanently wet now. Summer was awful and now it looks like winter will be a continuation of that theme. Lovely Britain....not!!

[Rose]

I agree, it just goes on & on! I get excited at the the prospect of snow, 2 minutes later it's oops, sorry, we meant rain grrrrrrr