Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[Jimmyh]

all i can say is utter utter dross awful long line of storms heading in enough of this now i want and i think we all need really cold weather kill off all those bugs that have risen again due to the horrible balmy boaring rubbish winter

[snow freak]

Yes, I suppose we are more likely to see snow in April rather than December. The only problem then is the sun is much stronger and any snow we do get has normally melted by midday. This country is topsy turvy with its weather.

[cerneman]

Always said UK weather changable,Just seems yes changable in type rain get,,,Heavy rain,Light rain,Cold rain.Warm rain and for nice change Drizzle,

[SMU]

A west based NAO- 99% of the time a waste of space.....

S

[DEYS(Kent)]

A west based NAO- 99% of the time a waste of space.....

S

Quite agree, SM....N/NW peeps may argue though as the synoptics can drag some cold uppers down....but for longevity of cold spell, west based NAO is pants for the UK as a whole..

[DEYS(Kent)]

Evening all,

I quite like the ECM 500mb mean at day 10,http://www.meteo.psu...0z/hgtcomp.html

The east Canadian block funelling cold air from the Arctic which feeds the trough to the SW of the uk,Azores high is ridging into spain but props up further trough over the UK,dosn't look like a mild feed to my untrained eye.wouldn't there be a lot of cold air in the mid atlantic?

I have to say, I "like" this post but not as much as the team you support! UTW!

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

The MOD thread is a nightmare at the moment its like a battle of ego's the weather will do what it likes like i said before the weather controls the models not the other way round im just glad we aint got bbq type xmas we shouldget Harry Hill on the mod thread "Theres only one way to find out""FIGHT" lol

[Weather-history]

A low tracking through brings snow to north Wales, north Midlands and northern England, 19 years ago today

[syed2878]

i can't c the repete of that this time round though wh. I haf to say i do agree with most of steave m's posts. I c now some r saying we will c a change from jan 10th 2013. I for 1 won't buy in to that untill i c the met on bord, and at the moment they arnt going for country wide cold.

[NL]

One things for certain the weather lately has been far from boring, really got to feel for the folk hit again and again by heavy rain causing misery so close to the festive period. Lets hope for a break in the current pattern. I'm sure many folk affected by flooding would gladly take a spell of calm sunny dry weather over cold and snowy conditions at the moment.

[syed2878]

just looking in the last thread the amount of met bashing is unbeleaveble, i c peeps forgotten that this very website forecasted shades of 76 witch went tits up, and yet peeps always bring up the mets bibicue summer that went fanny up. Remembor peeps computer models, the met gp and the rest of the gang dnt control the weather its the other way round.

[Bumpkin]

One things for certain the weather lately has been far from boring, really got to feel for the folk hit again and again by heavy rain causing misery so close to the festive period. Lets hope for a break in the current pattern. I'm sure many folk affected by flooding would gladly take a spell of calm sunny dry weather over cold and snowy conditions at the moment.

At the moment I would gladly take a several weeks of dry weather, whether that is mild or cold. The last thing we need in the west country is more precipitation whatever its variety.

[Weather-history]

Deep blues on this 20th December 1996 forecast by Michael Fish

[chris55]

Stratospheric musings in the strat thread are talking about a possible correlation to 2009!!

I like this strat warming,

In early Feb that year we ended up with the heaviest snowfall for a good 15 years

Lets hope the forecasted warming can deliver the goods eh!

Edited December 20, 2012 by chris55

[cerneman]

just looking in the last thread the amount of met bashing is unbeleaveble, i c peeps forgotten that this very website forecasted shades of 76 witch went tits up, and yet peeps always bring up the mets bibicue summer that went fanny up. Remembor peeps computer models, the met gp and the rest of the gang dnt control the weather its the other way round.

Met office should be more popular today, with there mention of cold in outlook

[Weather-history]

A low tracking through brings snow to north Wales, north Midlands and northern England, 19 years ago today

ECM 120hrs 0z op run looks interesting for those north of that low.

[Nick_W]

i can't c the repete of that this time round though wh. I haf to say i do agree with most of steave m's posts. I c now some r saying we will c a change from jan 10th 2013. I for 1 won't buy in to that untill i c the met on bord, and at the moment they arnt going for country wide cold.

Please stop typing like a tw*t!

Edited December 22, 2012 by Nick_W

[Isolated Frost]

Very, very cold in northern parts of Scotland and the northern isles from the 25th to the 27th. Spreading south into much of Scotland and northern England by the 26th. The likelyhood is that it will be a very transient event but could deliver big for some northern areas with a strong N/NW wind accompanied by a local trough. GFS 06z suite provides the northern isles with -14c 850s for 27th 06z, and much of Scotland by this period is under -10c 850s. -6c 850s spread into London and the south, including south Wales by 27th 09z, and -9c 850s reach Lincolnshire by 27th 12z.

It looks like it could well turn very cold in an abrupt arctic airstream from the 26th to the 27th. A very short window of opportunity, but plenty of snowfall likely in the far north, and potentially further south at times on the 27th.

There is also the small signal for wintry precip from a breakdown late on the 27th/early on the 28th.

[Ian Brown]

Stratospheric musings in the strat thread are talking about a possible correlation to 2009!!

I like this strat warming,

In early Feb that year we ended up with the heaviest snowfall for a good 15 years

Lets hope the forecasted warming can deliver the goods eh!

We will see Chris. but I remember 1998/99, when there was huge speculation about a change to colder conditions to come in the January. Obviously we were not all on internet forums back then analysing every detail of minutiae from the NWP, but clearly somebody other than the Express and Mail headline writers thought that something was afoot.

However, the Atlantic didn't play ball and it was another month of relentless zonality.

Very, very cold in northern parts of Scotland and the northern isles from the 25th to the 27th. Spreading south into much of Scotland and northern England by the 26th. The likelyhood is that it will be a very transient event but could deliver big for some northern areas with a strong N/NW wind accompanied by a local trough. GFS 06z suite provides the northern isles with -14c 850s for 27th 06z, and much of Scotland by this period is under -10c 850s. -6c 850s spread into London and the south, including south Wales by 27th 09z, and -9c 850s reach Lincolnshire by 27th 12z.

It looks like it could well turn very cold in an abrupt arctic airstream from the 26th to the 27th. A very short window of opportunity, but plenty of snowfall likely in the far north, and potentially further south at times on the 27th.

There is also the small signal for wintry precip from a breakdown late on the 27th/early on the 28th.

It's too short a window I think for places South of Scotland to see anything more the most fleeting wintriness, don't forget that the PPN is very quickly cut off when the next Atlantic system is on the approach.

[Weather-history]

We will see Chris. but I remember 1998/99, when there was huge speculation about a change to colder conditions to come in the January. Obviously we were not all on internet forums back then analysing every detail of minutiae from the NWP, but clearly somebody other than the Express and Mail headline writers thought that something was afoot.

However, the Atlantic didn't play ball and it was another month of relentless zonality

What I remember from February 1999 is that the trajectory of the weather systems shifted NW to SE and hence why the Alps got enormous snowfalls. They were certainly no Bartlett high like with the previous February.

Weather forecasts from February 1999

Edited December 22, 2012 by Weather-history

[Gord]

Every year is different though. Sure there are patterns from the past that we can learn from but we can't use what happened in one winter to determine what will happen in this winter. Winters like 1963 and 1998 were exceptional for very different reasons. They are great to learn from but winter 2013 is going to do it's own thing.

However, I'm not saying it's wrong to try and follow patterns from previous winters alongside the current winter..if anything, it all adds to the research and is quite interesting to do.

I don't think in my 34 years I've known 2 winters that have matched up. You can make comparisons but only for bits here and there. 3 months is a long time in weather terms!

[Weather-history]

What I remember from February 1999 is that the trajectory of the weather systems shifted NW to SE and hence why the Alps got enormous snowfalls. They were certainly no Bartlett high like with the previous February.

Weather forecasts from February 1999

Not sure why we are talking about winter 1998-99 anyway, the warming didn't happen until the end of February 1999, so it's not really a comparison to the current situation.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

I really hope we get an Atlantic block soon for the sake of all those in flooded areas esp this time of year 2

[cerneman]

No flooding in house this time,main issue being not want go out for long just in case, Just want some respite from this weather, Mild dry sunny or cold dry sunny will do,

[cerneman]

Lets all be positive,,,,,Just think how lucky we are to be avoiding cold frosty mornings,scrapping ice off windscreens,late night lamp post watching, kids out building snowman, weather forecasters saying "no end insight to deep freeze" Blue sky crisp frosty days, We are so lucky, [ depressed myself now]