Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[LomondSnowstorm]

Well, hardly in recent years. The only winter I can think of when it did this was 93/94.

From my experience of weather watching for the last 45 years once it gets into this rut for the winter it's extremely hard to shift.

The problem is much of Europe (and even Scandanavia) is relatively mild now with temperatures well above freezing so where's the cold going to come from ?

I'll be surprised if anything materialises over the next couple of weeks, and once you get past mid February that's basically about.it..

So, basically about 6 or 7 weeks at best for things to change.

It's not looking good.

The Arctic? Usually it requires either a straight northerly or a chunk of the PV dropping into Europe to get the ball rolling.

And I can think of a few that did have a reasonable pattern change for the better: February 2005, March 2006 (proof that late winter into spring can deliver the goods), early February 2009, even last winter had a strat-induced switch around in mid January, and those are just some recent winters.

Looking back a bit further, early February 1991 also followed a period of a strong PV over Greenland. The NH pattern is almost guaranteed to change if we get propagation, let's see where we go from there, and by that point we still have half the winter left, statistically the colder part, so all to play for still I feel.

[sundog]

Well, hardly in recent years. The only winter I can think of when it did this was 93/94.

In recent years i think the best examples of a pattern change was when we had that very wet mild zonal spell of weather in Nov 2009,that all changed the following month.

[Chris D]

Oh dear, I've never seen the model thread so downbeat about cold weather prospects, even the likes of TETIS are sounding depressing.

That being said, I like a good storm - but even that isn't really on offer for the next few weeks at least. Although I am hopeful of something more noteworthy past mid-January.

I think some on here (including myself) should be diagnosed with ZWAD (Zonal Weather Affective Disorder) - which predominantly affects Netweather.tv users during the Winter period if a lack of cold weather occurs.

Edited December 29, 2012 by Chris D

[syed2878]

who know's 1day it will.

[swfc]

The real let down is all the hype being tossed about way back in november!!forecasts of tanking nao,major blocking ete ete ete????.Nothing but three failed attempts at an easterly really.As for the cet being below average for december i guess thats another straw been clutched at.Just looked at the oz and to be honest its pretty rank unless you can get off on a squall line and maybe a wintry shower later today.So difficult to get out of these set ups once there in place.petty its so difficult to get into a cold set up?.

[loretta]

😳10.5 degrees at 07.28 in December!! Come on !! My cousin moved to Arkansas for warmer winters and they just had snow in little rock on Christmas day for the first time since 1926 - theres no justice he hates snow and gets it, I love snow and could wear swim wear this morning its so warm, theres something seriously not right here grrrrrr going back to bed!!

[TEITS]

��10.5 degrees at 07.28 in December!! Come on !! My cousin moved to Arkansas for warmer winters and they just had snow in little rock on Christmas day for the first time since 1926 - theres no justice he hates snow and gets it, I love snow and could wear swim wear this morning its so warm, theres something seriously not right here grrrrrr going back to bed!!

Its 11C here at the moment and im sitting here in my dressing gown with my windows wide open and no heating on. Just to make matters worse the models are crap again this morning. Even in Europe they have similar mild temps with 10C being reported in Germany/Holland at the moment.

Edited December 29, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[marksp]

well I have to echo TEITS sentiments at the moment, I to have no central heating on, and am sat in a T Shirt, lovely warm weather.

models show nothing at the moment (if you want cold and snow) and I do.

I hope the SSW throws up somthing soon, No snow here and considering where I live thats a major disapointment.

[Gustywind]

I think it's the hype we saw ahead of this winter during the autumn that hasnt helped. Nobody is to blame for this however it would useful to do a post mortem on why we have seen such a strong zonal second half of December with a positive nao.

Think we're reaching crunch point now this winter, either the ssw drives a favourable pattern change in jan, or I think we're looking at a 1998/99 type jan/feb, dominated by alternating zonal/Bartlett conditions.

[TEITS]

On a more positive note we still have time for the winter of 2012/13 to be regarded as a classic. My expectations are always lower than some but suppose from mid Jan to Feb we see a 2/3 week cold spell then in my opinion I would class this winter as being a good one.

A rather more unscientific hope I have is that the weather often balances itself out. So on this principle we are due a period of drier, colder weather. Based on the posts in the Stratosphere thread I shall eagerly looking at the GFS +300 charts to see a change in the overall NH pattern over the next 7 days or so.

Edited December 29, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[cerneman]

On a more positive note we still have time for the winter of 2012/13 to be regarded as a classic. My expectations are always lower than some but suppose from mid Jan to Feb we see a 2/3 week cold spell then in my opinion I would class this winter as being a good one.

A rather more unscientific hope I have is that the weather often balances itself out. So on this principle we are due a period of drier, colder weather. Based on the posts in the Stratosphere thread I shall eagerly looking at the GFS +300 charts to see a change in the overall NH pattern over the next 7 days or so.

Just posted on new nature observation thread about impact the wet year having on nature, Also again for third time this year some people in my village are experiencing flooding, This morning water again entered there houses, We do need some settled dry weather,but will need more than few days of dry, Could you imagine if we did get severe cold spell soon how badly it would impact people who will be struggling to dry out, What I am sure of is that the weather will not take account of peoples feelings, Any observations on nature would be welcome on new thread

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Normal Dec/early Jan though, remember anything before mid Jan a bonus for low levels in south, most southern areas saw nothing until early Feb last year

[Ian Brown]

Normal Dec/early Jan though, remember anything before mid Jan a bonus for low levels in south, most southern areas saw nothing until early Feb last year

And even then it was a skin of the teeth job.

Depressing this morning, at least yesterdays 'hairdryer' saw a largely dry day.

[swfc]

Im finding this continues rain very depressing and miserable!!!Its not even january yet and altho id love a nice cold spell looking at the output now im actually wishing it was nearly spring!!!Granted its a desperate post but what can you do????Also im finding this ssw event becoming a bit tiresome,sorry!!!!Its bad enough trying to land a cold spell within 72 hours as the last six weeks or so have shown so excuse my lack of excitment.Anyway ill get my "rain"coat

Edited December 29, 2012 by swfc

[marksp]

My second moan (sorry) But forgot to mention my snowdrops broke surface 10 days ago, water pooling in the garden borders, has more of spring feel to it albeit a little cooler, if it wasn,t for the fact it go,s dark early i could almost imagine it being early March, (hey hoy) It can only get better, can it.

[Peter H]

On a more positive note we still have time for the winter of 2012/13

Indeed, and as I keep saying, the winter of 1947 didn't start until the 21st January so there's always hope.

However, another day and another run of models that are rubbish, right up until the 14th January now.

At the start of December it did look promising, even up until Christmas when there was really cold air just to the east out in the North Sea, but the whole thing has gone pear shaped now. Even Scandanavia is relatively mild with drizzle in the forecast for Oslo !.

For those who like to fantasize on what a real winter should be like, here's Mike Tullet's daily summery of the really big one, 1962/63 which is now 50 years ago, and the one i remember as young child of 6/7. There's also a section with all the synoptic charts from December 62 right through until March 63. What we'd give for a few weeks of charts like those at the end of January, !

Enjoy:

http://myweb.tiscali...62-63/index.htm

Edited December 29, 2012 by Peter H

[Peter H]

P.S he also has some reports of 68/69 which was also a really good winter. Lots of snow mid January lasting through until early February

[cerneman]

Looks like some dry weather here down south, which will help to dry out, Will be interesting to see how January pans out, From the past know that weather can go from one extreme to another, Good post on model thread showing examples from past winters, Just hope 2013 not so wet,

[Paul_1978]

Lots of moaning throughout the forum about winter being over, whilst churning out charts 384 hours away.

For me, I'm waiting for this SSW to kick in and the models will hopefully pick things up. There is absolutely no point in looking at things beyond 5-7 days.

In fact I'm going to take a model sabbatical for 5 days and come back later next week.

[Gavin Hannah]

Going away on the 3rd Jan to Aviemore for snowboarding on the 4th Jan. The modeled HP makes me want to tear my eyes out. So F**king sick of being bombarded by S**ty wet, windy, mild muck!

As soon as I can, I'm leaving the UK and not coming back. Austrian Alps are a calling.

[Summer Sun]

Are we seeing a return to the 90's style winters those were often mild and were mostly westerly dominated just like the start of this winter has been

[LJS22]

Are we seeing a return to the 90's style winters those were often mild and were mostly westerly dominated just like the start of this winter has been

Hopefully

[Skip Spence]

Are we seeing a return to the 90's style winters those were often mild and were mostly westerly dominated just like the start of this winter has been

What we're seeing is bog standard UK winter weather. 2009/10 and in particular Dec 2010 were unusual to say the least. I can understand why some are disappointed but no one should be surprised. This is just the type of revolting crap we can expect at any time of the year. More's the pity.

[Summer Sun]

What we're seeing is bog standard UK winter weather. 2009/10 and in particular Dec 2010 were unusual to say the least. I can understand why some are disappointed but no one should be surprised. This is just the type of revolting crap we can expect at any time of the year. More's the pity.

Yes a typical modern UK winter this one 2010 was a rare event I know people say we've come close since to a repeat but thats all close the position of the UK leads to these type of winters I remember Winter 2006-07 was a warm one as well

[cerneman]

What we're seeing is bog standard UK winter weather. 2009/10 and in particular Dec 2010 were unusual to say the least. I can understand why some are disappointed but no one should be surprised. This is just the type of revolting crap we can expect at any time of the year. More's the pity.

That makes UK winters frustrating but interesting when we do get cold spell, Most people don't hang onto every weather forecast, the surprise when it suddenly turns from mild rainy to cold snowy always catches people out