Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[Harve]

Normal Dec/early Jan though, remember anything before mid Jan a bonus for low levels in south, most southern areas saw nothing until early Feb last year

I'm not sure why you keep harping on about this. Snow can fall to low levels in England and not be considered particularly exceptional between mid November and early April. It's certainly not 'a bonus' if it falls in December; it's fairly normal and doesn't take rare synoptics to occur, although it is obviously less common over the past 25 years even when taking into account 2009-2012.

[FROZENFOOT]

all of my daughters were born in february starting in 1979 up to 1989 and there has always been snow lying on the ground or falling around that time ( born 5th / 14th / 15th . i think that after the new year we will see huge snow falls maybe middle jan begining february, and i think this for no reason apart from thinking it might happen.

[Bobby]

What we're seeing is bog standard UK winter weather. 2009/10 and in particular Dec 2010 were unusual to say the least. I can understand why some are disappointed but no one should be surprised. This is just the type of revolting crap we can expect at any time of the year. More's the pity.

I guess that's part of the problem, we had 3 very good winters in a row, 2 exceptional ones that arrived unusually early also (November/December) and expectations have been raised, maybe to unrealistic levels. Although I do believe that we've seen changes in our climate that makes cold winters more likely Atlantic 'zonal' weather is still our default pattern. Anyway, it's usually the second half of winter that's the best for cold and snow and it'll probably be the case this year. But it may be good for people to have more realistic expectations.

[Hotspur62]

Yeah,this last week or so has been really depressing,but to be honest we must expect this type of weather in the UK for 70% of the winter.Granted,not usually this wet,but you only have to look at our average max daily temps of between 4-10 degrees which covers the UK to know that this is sadly bog standard winter weather.It wont last forever,and hopefully come mid January we will see a change and maybe a chance of snow for some.Remember,come 15th January we will still have 7 weeks of winter left and plenty of time for snow lovers to have some fun.

Currently 8.9 degrees here and raining!!What a surprise!

[Ade]

I would suggest you are straw clutching - evidence if the last 10 years is that the first half of winter has born most snow. All this speciation is crazy. The models did turn and flip and it could happen again. What happened in the past has no influence the future.

I think it might be a mild boring winter with a chance of snow. All angles covered!

I guess that's part of the problem, we had 3 very good winters in a row, 2 exceptional ones that arrived unusually early also (November/December) and expectations have been raised, maybe to unrealistic levels. Although I do believe that we've seen changes in our climate that makes cold winters more likely Atlantic 'zonal' weather is still our default pattern. Anyway, it's usually the second half of winter that's the best for cold and snow and it'll probably be the case this year. But it may be good for people to have more realistic expectations.

[syed2878]

i must say i do agree with peter h so far this winter has been crap, i do enjoy all kind of weather but in winter i look for cold and snow. Yes this dec was cold at first but no snow. Oh the patern will change but it won't be until may so we can have another onionsty summer again. Getting fed up with all the rain.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm not sure why you keep harping on about this. Snow can fall to low levels in England and not be considered particularly exceptional between mid November and early April. It's certainly not 'a bonus' if it falls in December; it's fairly normal and doesn't take rare synoptics to occur, although it is obviously less common over the past 25 years even when taking into account 2009-2012.

Is it really rarer than 25 years ago? The 1981-2010 December mean temperature is actually below the 61-90 mean temperature, which is not true for any other month, so perhaps we have become used to Decembers becoming more snowy relative to the rest of winter. I agree that it's hardly rare to see snow for England in December, although for much of England the average days of snow falling in December is 4 or fewer. Having looked at the snow falling days anomaly here we're actually running a fair bit above average, so it has been very much a north/south divide as far as snowfall is concerned, even moreso than it usually is.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12Z wetterzentrale 9 day charts look much better, hope that is the trend for drier even colder weather around 5th, always when I look at models, I firstly flick 9 day charts on,

[Gord]

At last! Something more positive to discuss! Please don't fade this one away like all the other glimmers of hope we've had over the past 2 weeks!

29th December and we are seeing some tentative signs of interesting things happening. We still have time on our side if it turns out to be nothing as well.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Need a good ecmwf 12Z, would feel back to square 1 if it churns out a flat pattern

[UV-RAY]

I'm a huge cold and snow lover but also a realist who likes balanced post and on that score i really hope it pees down for the rest of this winter due to a lot of posters on here not wanting anyone commenting an actual facts of what is being shown. I think the problem lies with to many posters just being out of puberty.

[LJS22]

I'm a huge cold and snow lover but also a realist who likes balanced post and on that score i really hope it pees down for the rest of this winter due to a lot of posters on here not wanting anyone commenting an actual facts of what is being shown. I think the problem lies with to many posters just being out of puberty.

Haha. Well said that man

[Panayiotis]

Why do we like cold? Why do we like snow? Why do we like warmth? Why do we like storms? Why I wonder? Because its a change of what we normally get here in the British Isles, people like change , people like all the hype that these types of weather bring, for example we get heat, we get cold, its on the news everyday, and is talked about throughout the whole of the UK. Its the same in other countries, whereas we hate the rain and love the sun, people over in Cyprus (where I am from) hate the sun and love the rain.

Edited December 29, 2012 by Panayiotis

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes a typical modern UK winter this one 2010 was a rare event I know people say we've come close since to a repeat but thats all close the position of the UK leads to these type of winters I remember Winter 2006-07 was a warm one as well

07 wasnt bad here, lots of snow on 8th and 9th Feb, 2010 was good, not mentioned really on here Feb 17th-23rd 2010 very snowy for my area

[cerneman]

Spent few months in Imus Cavite in Philippines,After few weeks of daily blue skys and hot sunshine, started to crave some variation in weather, Gets boring saying "Hot day" every day, We British talk about our weather,because so changeable, Have family in Oslo and same there in winter, Don't really talk much about how cold it is or will it snow today, We weather obsessed in this country,,,,,,,,

[BARRY]

Spent few months in Imus Cavite in Philippines,After few weeks of daily blue skys and hot sunshine, started to crave some variation in weather, Gets boring saying "Hot day" every day, We British talk about our weather,because so changeable, Have family in Oslo and same there in winter, Don't really talk much about how cold it is or will it snow today, We weather obsessed in this country,,,,,,,,

we like queues as well

[cerneman]

we like queues as well

And Complaining........................ Edited December 29, 2012 by cerneman

[Peter H]

Spent few months in Imus Cavite in Philippines,After few weeks of daily blue skys and hot sunshine, started to crave some variation in weather, Gets boring saying "Hot day" every day, We British talk about our weather,because so changeable, Have family in Oslo and same there in winter, Don't really talk much about how cold it is or will it snow today, We weather obsessed in this country,,,,,,,,

I saw a news report on BBC NI a while back were they were interviewing Italian holiday makers who had come to Northern Ireland just to get away from the sun.

Perpetual sun gets boring too I suppose.

[jethro]

I'm a huge cold and snow lover but also a realist who likes balanced post and on that score i really hope it pees down for the rest of this winter due to a lot of posters on here not wanting anyone commenting an actual facts of what is being shown. I think the problem lies with to many posters just being out of puberty.

Living in the South West and seeing the continued devastation wrought by the relentless wet weather, I pray that we get some dry weather, regardless of whether it's warm or cold.

As for where the problem lays on here, IMO it's due to too many people lacking the basic ability to bite their tongue. A huge dose of live and let live wouldn't go amiss, why get het up over what other people say or think? The weather will carry on regardless of what folk think or hope for.

[Tony Beets]

Hahaha, love the I predicted this and that statements coming out now!! With the amount of brilliant and well researched posts on here in various threads I think my mother could lay claim to "predicting" what might happen.

[cerneman]

With at long last some reasonable dry settled weather, The model watchers can concentrate on Strat warning and how models will deal with it, Should help increase knowledge of this fascinating science, In reallity suspect the rollercoaster to start, should be entertaining

[Ian Brown]

We go through all this analysis, the Strat, the PDO, the MJO, the global winds etc.. and all these features seem to have to be in place for High latitude blocking to occur, obviously we didn't know at the time, but was it really this hard when we had all those cold spells in the early to mid-eighties ?

[Peter H]

Current models look encouraging for later next week.....but I'll not hold my breath.

They'll probably be flipped by the morning.

Still..............

[Paul_1978]

People on the other model thread saying "there are no signs of a cold spell".

Are they blind?

Do they not read the strat thread?

That's as big a sign as you're going to get. Ok it doesn't guarantee to be favourable for us but it's a sign nonetheless. I think these people are Wind Up Merchants!

[nanu]

People on the other model thread saying "there are no signs of a cold spell".

Are they blind?

Do they not read the strat thread?

That's as big a sign as you're going to get. Ok it doesn't guarantee to be favourable for us but it's a sign nonetheless. I think these people are Wind Up Merchants!

They say there will be no cold spell due to the fact they just dont like cold,snow,frosts etc. Yet on the other hand the cold rampers will say there's no sign of back to atlantic domination when a cold spell is either nailed or in place!! To the neutral weather person its fun reading..