Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[SnowObsessor90]

Even now after the winter has already been done and dusted it looks like the ECM is still trying to tease us with some tasty looking FI charts which we all know won't verify, aww bless it.

[That ECM]

I have to say that the enthusiasm for cold in the model discussion thread is surprising. At this time of year, I am ready for a bit of warmth. Love cold or should I say snow but I have had enough cold for awhile. Lets have some pleasant sun and warm spring days. Although looking at the latest output, there seems little of that on offer past Wednesday.

[Peter H]

It's about this time of the season that I usually give up on looking for cold as well ECM. I'm also looking forward to spring and the extra houir in the evening, and I'm not one bit fussed about snow now.

Interestingly, the winter of 2009/10 did have a real sting in it's tail at the end of March 2010. with a very unusual and heavy widespread snowfall affecting more upland areas here. While not being cold enough for it to lie for any length of time here, many upland areas of NI were cut off for days.

Still, less than 9 weeks until May and only 13 weeks until June. It'll fly in

[cerneman]

For my location seems like endless dull grey cold days, Sun here seems rare commodity, If after this week it turns colder,just hope can have some cold crisp Sunny days,

[SnowObsessor90]

I have to say that the enthusiasm for cold in the model discussion thread is surprising. At this time of year, I am ready for a bit of warmth. Love cold or should I say snow but I have had enough cold for awhile. Lets have some pleasant sun and warm spring days. Although looking at the latest output, there seems little of that on offer past Wednesday.

Meh... I'd glady sacrifice a good fair portion of Spring if the summer doesn't end up being more or less a complete washout like the last one.

Edited March 4, 2013 by SnowObsessor90

[mushymanrob]

... and after weeks of people dissing the gfs, its suddenly flavour of the month! :lol:

[Snowman.]

... and after weeks of people dissing the gfs, its suddenly flavour of the month!

I know right?

Hoping for a real nice May and June but we can only dream?

[Fozfoster]

... and after weeks of people dissing the gfs, its suddenly flavour of the month! :lol:

let it be right, one more chance of snow then its BBQ weather for me. Open up our static caravan 22nd march in heacham. Can't wait !!

[Average Joe]

I have to say that the enthusiasm for cold in the model discussion thread is surprising. At this time of year, I am ready for a bit of warmth. Love cold or should I say snow but I have had enough cold for awhile. Lets have some pleasant sun and warm spring days. Although looking at the latest output, there seems little of that on offer past Wednesday.

It never ceases to amaze me the excitement generated by the fact that compared to a day such as today's, that slate grey skies, snow and ice is preferred.

[TEITS]

It never ceases to amaze me the excitement generated by the fact that compared to a day such as today's, that slate grey skies, snow and ice is preferred.

March is one of my favourite months because of the variety it brings and the potential extremes. Must admit though after following this recent cold spell in the output I shall be looking for warmth afterwards.

[swash]

... and after weeks of people dissing the gfs, its suddenly flavour of the month!

Quite unbelievable, even some of the more experienced/respected posters who haven't given the GFS the time of day all winter are now pinning their colours to it's mast, even the 06z, which I had previously been led to believe was the least reliable run of all!

Edited March 5, 2013 by swash

[Average Joe]

March is one of my favourite months because of the variety it brings and the potential extremes. Must admit though after following this recent cold spell in the output I shall be looking for warmth afterwards.

I understand the excitement at extremes. Grey skies, snow & ice are just soooooo depressing though. At least if it's cold let's have the sun shining!

[mushymanrob]

......and tonight its the ecm that is right pmsl, how very predictable. i wonder if the fervent cold lovers are as fickle in real life?probably loners.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I understand the excitement at extremes. Grey skies, snow & ice are just soooooo depressing though. At least if it's cold let's have the sun shining!

Particularly as we get into spring, northerly types (or easterlies sourced from a long way north) are much better bets for those after cold bright weather.

Continental easterly types are increasingly reliably cold and grey at this time of year because the continent warms up and the continental air then passes over a relatively cold North Sea, resulting in stratocumulus trapped under an inversion (this also happened quite a lot during January and February this year, and it's even more common in March). For snowfall we end up reliant on Atlantic weather systems pushing against the block (which bring cloud of their own).

For the above reasons the weather that many people are getting excited over probably wouldn't bring grey skies as it involves an easterly with a "northerly" source followed by northerlies.

Edited March 6, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Average Joe]

Particularly as we get into spring, northerly types (or easterlies sourced from a long way north) are much better bets for those after cold bright weather.

Continental easterly types are increasingly reliably cold and grey at this time of year because the continent warms up and the continental air then passes over a relatively cold North Sea, resulting in stratocumulus trapped under an inversion (this also happened quite a lot during January and February this year, and it's even more common in March). For snowfall we end up reliant on Atlantic weather systems pushing against the block (which bring cloud of their own).

For the above reasons the weather that many people are getting excited over probably wouldn't bring grey skies as it involves an easterly with a "northerly" source followed by northerlies.

Thank you for the lesson in meteorology, but I've never seen snow fall out of a sun drenched sky before, so snow to me means grey skies?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Maybe it's a matter of perception then, I associate grey skies with generally cloudy or overcast weather rather than with a mix of sunny spells and showers, and I can foresee sunshine amounts being above average in many areas, particularly central and western Britain, if we get the sort of north to north-easterly regime that GFS and ECMWF are showing.

Edited March 6, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[mushymanrob]

this wretched cold is going to cost me serious money....

[microclimate]

this wretched cold is going to cost me serious money....

Yes, I know the feeling! As a cold lover I find the conflict difficult when I need to start earning some dosh.

[LJS22]

Cold i don't mind so much as i have an active job so i stay warm. Snow can jog on as it buggers me up totally

[LJS22]

......and tonight its the ecm that is right pmsl, how very predictable. i wonder if the fervent cold lovers are as fickle in real life?probably loners.

Loners that never go outside when it's cold either

[Thundery wintry showers]

......and tonight its the ecm that is right pmsl, how very predictable. i wonder if the fervent cold lovers are as fickle in real life?probably loners.

There are some quirks that leave me wondering, e.g. the way that some pin hopes on a really cold spell and then, when we get one, instead of going out and enjoying it, start worrying about when the breakdown will be... lol! The same sort of thing happens with warm dry sunny spells in summer, with some being more focused on worrying about the breakdown at T+180 than going out and enjoying it while it's happening, or at least it seems that way.

I can certainly understand the frustrations of those whose finances are on the line when spring shows signs of arrival only to have significant setbacks. For many parts of agriculture it may well be helpful that we've had a relatively cold winter- a mild winter followed by hard frosts in the spring is often the worst combination for crop damage. Because of the relative lack of cold snowy weather in most recent years from March onwards, there is also a risk of being lulled into a false sense of security, e.g. farmers planting too many crops too soon and then regretting it after a subsequent cold snap.

Edited March 6, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Snowman.]

And it's probably still wrong, the high would have to end up further northwest towards greenland for the metoffice arctic spell to last a week, probably more like the ecm than the gfs.

More than likely.

I haven't backed that model since February and when the cold spell was shown I still backed the ECM.

GFS just a pile of poo.

[CWT2012]

Deep cold with heavy snowfall looks nailed on now, it is just a question of timing, amounts and length of the severe spell

[StormyLincs]

Deep cold with heavy snowfall looks nailed on now, it is just a question of timing, amounts and length of the severe spell

Nothing is nailed until it happens! How many times have we been here.

[shaky]

Full on beast from the east at t102

Cheltenham may need one of these next week

Of course we've been here before so caution is advised until its still showing at t72 and lower ideally

Jesus where about to be battered by -14 850s and snowfall!!batten down the hatches!!