Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[cheshire snow]

Deep cold with heavy snowfall looks nailed on now, it is just a question of timing, amounts and length of the severe spell

I am afraid as far as this country is concerned,nothing is Nailed on,as you say

C.S

[JoeShmoe]

Deep cold with heavy snowfall looks nailed on now, it is just a question of timing, amounts and length of the severe spell

Dear oh dear

[Vince Coombes]

Great reading folks.does beg the question. Would we of been looking at a repeat of jan 87 had this been 6 weeks ago. ..all assuming it comes off

[mushymanrob]

Deep cold with heavy snowfall looks nailed on now, it is just a question of timing, amounts and length of the severe spell

not learnt owt yet mate have you! lol

i wonder how many cold lovers would be so keen on freezing conditions if it cost them what its going to cost me? £600-£800 a week.

[Alexis]

ive never seen 7 days of lying snow in march, 4 in 1970 is the most. but i guess locations are different.

1970 (Britweather Years) March.March. Very cold (3.7C CET) overall. The month started with northerly winds. There was a major and unexpected snowfall on the 4th, heavy enough to bring down power lines in Kent. Some parts of Northants. and Beds. reported about 40 cms of snow, with the deepest being nearly 48cm near Northampton. Snow fell heavily for twelve hours across a wide part of the south. In parts of the north southeast (if you see what I mean) and the East Midlands it was the heaviest snowfall since 1947. Near Bedford 36 cms of snow lay after 24 hours of snow. The snow was followed by some low temperatures in a northerly air flow, with -15C recorded. The snow covered lasted for more than a week, in sunshine. I don't remember this at all, although I must have been going to school at the time. I don't remember missing Mr Openshaw's French lessons because I was snowbound, but you never know.

Edited March 6, 2013 by Coast

[mushymanrob]

1970 (Britweather Years) March.March. Very cold (3.7C CET) overall. The month started with northerly winds. There was a major and unexpected snowfall on the 4th, heavy enough to bring down power lines in Kent. Some parts of Northants. and Beds. reported about 40 cms of snow, with the deepest being nearly 48cm near Northampton. Snow fell heavily for twelve hours across a wide part of the south. In parts of the north southeast (if you see what I mean) and the East Midlands it was the heaviest snowfall since 1947. Near Bedford 36 cms of snow lay after 24 hours of snow. The snow was followed by some low temperatures in a northerly air flow, with -15C recorded. The snow covered lasted for more than a week, in sunshine. I don't remember this at all, although I must have been going to school at the time. I don't remember missing Mr Openshaw's French lessons because I was snowbound, but you never know.

according to my diary, i went looking for marsh marigolds on the 8th, must have gone here by then, cant see them through snow! lol

[Isabellesnanny]

not learnt owt yet mate have you! lol

i wonder how many cold lovers would be so keen on freezing conditions if it cost them what its going to cost me? £600-£800 a week.

Must admit I can't understand the obsession with the cold and snowy conditions - I am ready for the warm weather- to be able to get out and about and enjoy doing things - beats sitting indoors with the heating blasting not being able to get anywhere.

Edited March 6, 2013 by Isabellesnanny

[Froze were the Days]

Just saw the recent Look East forecast for Monday and showed 3c and cloudy and 17mph wind - hardly beast from the east but still cold for March but not exceptionally so.

[Peter H]

Just saw the recent Look East forecast for Monday and showed 3c and cloudy and 17mph wind - hardly beast from the east but still cold for March but not exceptionally so.

A max of 2C for mid March is pretty darned cold for these parts.

Pity it's a bit late in the season. This would have been great around Christmas.

[Aaron]

Must admit I can't understand the obsession with the cold and snowy conditions - I am ready for the warm weather- to be able to get out and about and enjoy doing things - beats sitting indoors with the heating blasting not being able to get anywhere.

It takes a lot to keep me indoors - as long as it's dry, and as long as my life is not at threat, I'll be outside doing what I was intending on doing, including running in subzero temperatures in freezing fog. The weather I would be most reluctant to run in would be temperatures above 25C. I'd prefer a steady drizzle to running in such temperatures.

But that's the beauty of diversity I suppose, what a boring world it would be if everyone was exactly the same.

Edited March 7, 2013 by Aaron

[Bluebreezer54]

Deep cold with heavy snowfall looks nailed on now, it is just a question of timing, amounts and length of the severe spell

You are always good for a laugh pal, and I thank you for that.

[snowblizzard]

Well a disapointing set of oveenight runs, the ECM is welcoming spring back in at day 9 and the easterly as usual is shunted away from the uk very quickly as more energy is coming south. I guess we cant moan to much as we still have a fantastic 24 hour window for snow, however its certainly been shortened and softened overnight...

S

As usual!!

[Freezeflake]

Well here we go again we get so close for it then the be slowly watered down and downgraded

[mushymanrob]

itll become quieter on here now those extreme cold uppers have evaporated. i must admit it would have been fun to experience them, but it was always in fi. this mornings runs suggest to me a 'normal' cold spell for march, except for monday which will be very cold. so no snowmageddon. i think there will be some bitterly disappointed people around today, who thought the extreme cold was nailed... it never was, but i was begining to believe it could happen, the data was consistent in favour for it, maybe i should have stuck by my original thoughts that those extreme conditions were highly unlikely to varify..... looks like id have been right to do so.

i dont know why people are moaning about the 'downgrade', it was always likely as it has been all winter, and other winters,

why dont people ever learn, not to take fi as granted.

Edited March 7, 2013 by mushymanrob

[CWT2012]

Definitely downgrades from the ECM and GFS but it is just one set of runs, no point taking them as gospel after run after run showing bitter cold and heavy snow, if the 12z and 18z are showing similar i will start to get a bit concerned but until then the 6z is going in the bin

[Radiating Dendrite]

Definitely downgrades from the ECM and GFS but it is just one set of runs, no point taking them as gospel after run after run showing bitter cold and heavy snow, if the 12z and 18z are showing similar i will start to get a bit concerned but until then the 6z is going in the bin

Why are you binning the 6z before you have seen it?

[johnholmes]

Why are you binning the 6z before you have seen it?

I suspect being afraid it will not show the snowmaggedon he has been going on about for several days, falls of 1 ft widespread etc etc!

[abruzzi spur]

Why are you binning the 6z before you have seen it?

I think he means the 0z goes in the bin, but maybe it's both!

[cobbett]

So yet another climbdown from the models, we go from snow across 90% of the UK to what in effect will be 1-2 cm across east/north east regions lasting 2 days from Sun and possible sprinkling further inland.This seems to occur with projected E/NE flows on a regular basis..zzz

[Average Joe]

You are always good for a laugh pal, and I thank you for that.

Haha....so Cobra won't be meeting, and the Army won't be called in then???

[johnholmes]

some of the posts in the model thread are, if you look at them quietly and objectively pretty daft really. One suggesting that its pretty poor that the models are not better now, suggesting they should be better! He like one or two others should know better than believe some of the really extreme charts shown at longish time scales. Predictions of 1 ft of snow being widespread. If only some folk would try and remember how as toddlers we all had to learn to walk before running. Apply that to meteorology. In the calmer summer period I do urge many in the model thread to READ STUDY and THINK about many aspects of meteorology. There is plenty in the Net Wx Guides to help and these days Google for pretty much anything, meteorology included, will give stacks of reading material for tea and coffee breaks.

With luck at least a few may return next autumn with rather more objective ideas about models and meteorology!

[Average Joe]

some of the posts in the model thread are, if you look at them quietly and objectively pretty daft really. One suggesting that its pretty poor that the models are not better now, suggesting they should be better! He like one or two others should know better than believe some of the really extreme charts shown at longish time scales. Predictions of 1 ft of snow being widespread. If only some folk would try and remember how as toddlers we all had to learn to walk before running. Apply that to meteorology. In the calmer summer period I do urge many in the model thread to READ STUDY and THINK about many aspects of meteorology. There is plenty in the Net Wx Guides to help and these days Google for pretty much anything, meteorology included, will give stacks of reading material for tea and coffee breaks.

With luck at least a few may return next autumn with rather more objective ideas about models and meteorology!

In the short time I've been reading these forums John, I've very quickly discovered that the vast majority read what they want to read, and are very one eyed with regards to what they look for and therefore post. There are very few who will offer a balanced summary.

[chris78]

Posted Today, 10:21

SomeLikeItHot, on 07 March 2013 - 09:29 , said:

I am struggling to see what down grades people are talking about except either in their minds or in FI? The initial 36 hours of extremely cold uppers (< -10 T80sseems to be more or less the same maybe a couple hours shorter but then longer lasting with -6 to -8 T850s for most of the UK? I think the snow progged by the GFS has changed but that was always likely.

another members response:

I agree with you, when I logged on this morning and read about all the downgrades, I took a look at the models and saw the very cold initial blast is still there and that next week will be much colder than it should be approaching mid march.

Here we go again.......what downgrade? A day or so ago people were talking record breaking March, and Dec 2010 repeats......is that what you see in todays charts, or do you see a cold spell nothing more nothing less?

The problem is the hype, I know your all big cold fans and just having a bit of fun, so fair enough..but it does make the forum uselss as a tool for getting an idea as to what will actually happen!

at least 3 times this winter experienced members have taken charts at face value and verged on bullying those who disagree, denied the intial downgrades..and then when a cold snap appears claim to have been right all along......despite predicting 1947 and getting....-3 and a dusting of snow

[johnholmes]

rather than click like, I do feel this needs highlight and good for you for doing just that-especially the first sentence.

I do wonder just what on earth both new folk and the thousands of visitors must think when they read some of the posts-yes I know I've said it before but eventually someone might take notice!

The problem is the hype, I know your all big cold fans and just having a bit of fun, so fair enough..but it does make the forum uselss as a tool for getting an idea as to what will actually happen!

at least 3 times this winter experienced members have taken charts at face value and verged on bullying those who disagree, denied the intial downgrades..and then when a cold snap appears claim to have been right all along......despite predicting 1947 and getting....-3 and a dusting of snow

Edited March 7, 2013 by johnholmes

[Paul]

Just as a thought, maybe most new people recognise they're coming on to a discussion forum where people of all knowledge levels, ages and background take part, so therefore they probably don't expect a full on perfectly accurate technical forecast when they go into the model thread?

It's a discussion! People do get excited, people do go a bit ott - that's the nature of the beast, in fact many people enjoy it because of that drama. What I would say though Chris, is you're effectively talking at cross purposes - those people who were talking about 'no downgrades' today were giving their view of the charts and whether they have changed in the last 24 hours, they weren't commenting on what others may or may not have been saying previously.

Everyone has a choice as to what they read in to what, and what they use the model discussion as, but no-one is pretending it's a one stop shop for a perfect forecast - it's a discussion first and foremost and therefore it's reasonable to assume that since it's not just pro's in there, you'll not just get professional comments.