Wales Cymru Cold Spell Regional Discussion

[J10]

With South Westerly winds like this, it allows milder air to push in before the front, and as a result, any snowfall seems very limited indeed for all of Wales [for the specific breakdown snow chances], but this is only on current model guidance.

In a nutshell to both whiskers and soupsurfer 7, No and No. as things stand.

Edited December 9, 2012 by Jackone

[Ukwoody]

Just tio let you all know (some of you may be pleased!) I have tendered my resignation as a Regional Host.

Tony, I hope it was nothing in here that has led to that decision. Speaking personally, as someone who tries to understand what is happening and why,(and failing miserably,lol) weatherwise I shall be very sad to see you stand down. From what I have seen you have been a good example for other mods to follow, your own person, with you own opinions, but allowing the thoughts of others to be aired openly.

Thank you very much and PLEASE keep posting in here, I cannot be alone when I say I look forward to your balanced views and valuable experience be shared. Thank you!!!

Woody (PS who is going to keep Andy in check now )

[DeepSnow]

Tony, it will be a big shame if you do that, your posts are some of the best on here, your a great regional host and always have balanced posts which i always enjoy reading!

[keithlucky]

Big fight on hold your hats cold putting up a fight on latest GFS.

Edited December 9, 2012 by keithlucky

[Wales123098]

So the cold snap begins lets hope it leads to some snow! Temperature just slipped below 0c here. -0.4C

[Wales123098]

Looking at the gfs it just looks like the block is never too far away and we will see periods of cold like the next few days followed by a few milder days then followed by cold again with each one looking colder. Another easterly showing on GFS now, in FI tho but that's how I see things. We've had snow here recently but it was the smallest of dustings not notable at all. We'll be lucky eventually I think we're likely to see at least 1 good spell of cold snowy weather this season even if it doesn't last very long

Edited December 9, 2012 by Wales123098

[mikeocarroll]

A chilly -4.7c here last night, -3.7c currently, be interesting to see what max we get today.

[Ukwoody]

ummm dunno guys. MO have issued a Yellow heavy rain warning for all of South Wales on Friday. Must be honest, I'm sick to death of the rain this year!

woody

Edited December 10, 2012 by ukwoody

[marclt]

How depressing!

MetO: Heavy rain is expected to spread northeastwards during Friday, to affect parts of both southwest England and Wales. The public should be aware of the possibility of flooding and disruption to travel.

[keithlucky]

Keep myself under control possible snow Thursday morning from Ian Fergesson Hot off press from new modified UKMO-GM - - snow amounts are increased now early Thursday for this region and other parts of southern England. Interesting look about it. Northern limit is around M4 before it dies away. Mostly 200m upwards but UKMO suggest to low-levels around M4 corridor (they supplied a sounding for Swindon to demonstrate this potential). Also this chart snow for Thursday morning from GFS temps prog 2c to 3 c across SWales again no further North than the M4 corridor ,Some snow better than none signs are LP first attack weakening as it pushes North and East.

Edited December 10, 2012 by keithlucky

[J10]

It seems clear that the wind direction is set to move very quickly move to SW, so any snow is likely to be transient, and will not amount to much.

For us to have any chance of us at all,it seems perverse but the quicker the precipitation gets here the better, in effect before the milder air pushes in from the SW.

Personally I would advise not getting that excited on this.

ummm dunno guys. MO have issued a Yellow heavy rain warning for all of South Wales on Friday. Must be honest, I'm sick to death of the rain this year!

woody

No question to me that rain is the main issue towards the end of the week.

Heavy rain on this and no chance of snow anywhere in Wales.

Over recent days I have posted the charts, as to where the low pressure is on Friday, suffice to say there is good agreement on this.

Edited December 10, 2012 by Jackone

[keithlucky]

It seems clear that the wind direction is set to move very quickly move to SW, so any snow is likely to be transient, and will not amount to much.

For us to have any chance of us at all,it seems perverse but the quicker the precipitation gets here the better, in effect before the milder air pushes in from the SW.

Personally I would advise not getting that excited on this.

No question to me that rain is the main issue towards the end of the week.

Nice to see a snowflake though forgot what it looks like

[SP1986]

This is one I posted on the NW England thread, but seeing as this is to do with Wales, I'll copy it here.. besides living in Wirral, our weather is one and the same.. I could post in the Wales thread, as there is a boundary blur somewhere.

anyhow..

"Right on the coast in Morfa Nefyn on the Llyn Peninsula is currently -1.2C.. they rarely see air frost there so that's quite a big deal. Also Holyhead harbour is -1C.. also not a frequent occurrence (but nowhere near as unusual as Llyn)"

[marclt]

Cheers SP1986, I'm sure you'll be most welcome in the Wales Cymru thread also!

Rather chilly tonight. It's been interesting to see how frost free we've been over the weekend - yet it has remained fairly frost over the sea in Ireland!

[SP1986]

I often associate Pembrokeshire with frost free (well the coasts anyway), but it has been frosty in Ireland.

Very frosty here tonight too -1.6C currently.. and plummeting.

I noticed in Llandudno town centre it is currently 1.3C, and I didn't expect it to get that low there

[Bonjangle]

-3.2 here at the Momment and also i can see fog as well in the fields where i live , btw i dont live anywhere by the City i am out where the farmers like to milk the Cows , early in the morning again (Sigh) never mind i am working 2-10 today and off to sleep i go in the back bedroom Blisss . night to all

[Wales123098]

-5.1c here and falling very gradually. Cold night. Even some frost on the window.

[andymusic]

defo freezing at the mo - but not looking so good at the end of the week for any major snow - just transient - but I suppose that's better than nothing - GFS 18z FI - looks good - but way off in the distance - as we get closer and closer to xmas - will it be white or will it be rainy! who knows

sorry i've not been around - been mega busy - finally got the date for Liza's show in the coal exchange, cardiff - 14th March 2013

RIGHT THEN FOLKS - GET YOUR LUG OLES ROUND THIS - Are you available on Thursday March 14th 2013? - How would you like to see Liza Starlight's full on Whitney Houston Tribute show with 2 support acts LIVE at the beautiful Coal Exchange, Cardiff Bay - www.coalexchange.co.uk/

. Support acts being an Enrique Iglesias Tribute to open the show (Kitos, looks like Peter Andre) - and Dave Deveraux - comedian/vocalist - a very very funny man and a legend in the business. Tickets will be going on sale very shortly and will be purchasable over the telephone with your debit or credit card - an initial 600 tickets will be available for this very special show - so I'm sure they will sell fairly quickly - so make sure you get your tickets as soon as you can. We are hoping to get a video made of the whole show with a 4 camera crew, so you may get your chance to be seen on Liza's DVD. Once again we'll let you know very very shortly when tickets will go on sale - probably within the next 7 days - http://www.lizastarlight.com/whitneyhoustontribute.htm

I do hope things get snowier in the fairly near future - but as I've said - at least we can get around right now - maybe the snow is best kept at bay till the new year - that way we can enjoy the festive period - get around to meet and greet loved ones - and then enjoy the major snows come January and February

Incidetally - Liza will get to perform on TV in Feb too on sky - more details to follow - I'll try and post sometime tomoz - and hope the models get a little more snowier - rather than rainier!

[mikeocarroll]

Broke the minus 7 barrier for the first time this winter, dipping down to -7.2c here last night. Temp is currently 1.1c and rising slowly; I would expect the max to be somewhere around 2c. Much colder than anything we saw last December; pity about the lack of snow.

[alijoe]

Really cold and very foggy in chepstow. fog came down really quickly and getting worse

be careful everyone.

[Blackjack]

I know we had an about face from the epic ECM last week, but is anyone aware of dates/winters where there was a big change within the t-96 t-72 time frame? What's the shortest time frame anyone is aware of where a dramatic about face happened?

[andymusic]

we've had prety much an ice day here - frost hasn't lifted at all from the garden - gonna be another cold cold night - but models don't even want to give us a snifta of that snow on friday ! just not happening right now - oh well i spose I could always take up a different hbby and get all excited amd mental over - stamp collecting - mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm NOT!

Mince pie or red wine anyone?

looks like xmas will be mildish - nowt much of us can do - just gotta suck it up - ya never know maybe we'll get a surprise!!!!!!!!!!!

[J10]

In has remained frosty in the shade here as well, but not an ice day.

I know we had an about face from the epic ECM last week, but is anyone aware of dates/winters where there was a big change within the t-96 t-72 time frame? What's the shortest time frame anyone is aware of where a dramatic about face happened?

About 48 hours in terms of models doing a U-turn. Of course here have also been times when the models are wrong at T+0, in terms of on the floor weather.

[Marcus_surfer]

Models turning again bringing the threat of cold returning and it's never too far away from the UK.

[marclt]

I often associate Pembrokeshire with frost free (well the coasts anyway), but it has been frosty in Ireland.

Very frosty here tonight too -1.6C currently.. and plummeting.

It was extremely cold and frosty in much of inland Pembrokeshire last night. I expect it to be the same tonight...