Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 10th Dec

[Summer Sun]

The met office don't offer much hope for another cold spell in today's update, but hopefully the ensembles are onto something

[Panayiotis]

Again its around the 18th-20th that we should be looking at IMO. As i said yesterday the low to the east of America is causing the ridge into Greenland shown now on 7 runs(if i remember right).However the angle of the low makes the difference and we dont know yet what it will be like because its FI but certainly a trend.

http://cdn.nwstatic....216/h500slp.png

Edited December 11, 2012 by panayiotis

[nick sussex]

The met office don't offer much hope for another cold spell in today's update, but hopefully the ensembles are onto something

At least they suggest a more southerly tracking jet. So room for some changes, whats a couple of hundred miles globally?

My optimism rating has recovered to 6/10 after falling through the floor after the easterly fiasco!

[tesaro]

At least they suggest a more southerly tracking jet. So room for some changes, whats a couple of hundred miles globally?

My optimism rating has recovered to 6/10 after falling through the floor after the easterly fiasco!

So Nick, going by the latest charts are you going to show some leniency towards the Russian high or is it still on a two day countdown of usefulness?

[latitude]

GFS 06z Ensembles also show a cooling trend after this weeks warm up;

http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png

If we could knock out some of those mild members in FI then the mean would probably go sub zero again in FI.

Anyway, off to the regionals I go now. Ice days being reported IMBY.

Anyone got a link showing the ensemble for this week from last Tuesday? That could just go to prove how useless the ensembles can be.

[Shunter]

I'm not sure if this is the right place to ask, if it is not then mods, feel free to move. With winters like '63 and '47, if models had existed back then do you think they would have known something 'was up' at this stage? I often read about background signals and the like, but can you tell what's around the corner?

I remember many occasions in the 80's where this type of synoptic pattern occurred. Every time the TV & media warned of the Atlantic sweeping away the cold Eastern block followed by "mild and mellow muck". I remember buying a sledge in "87" from a local garage.......the attendent said "no chance of cold weather, said so on TV". A week later I called back ( had to walk due to heavy snowfall that had closed the motorway ). How did you know it was going to get cold he said !!

oh and all of the sledges have been sold !

I would say that in around of 50% of those situations the initial "push" from the west failed or was delayed. In around probably 1/3 of cases the Cold did actually persevere and the Media had to do a quick U turn on their forecasts.

I'm not saying this will happen this week but there is most definately the potential there and I cant see one professional body advising of this albeit small possiblity.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

This COULD be another straw to clutch. Look at the cpc 6-10 day and 8-14 day 500mb anomoly.

6-10 day

8-14 day

Notice that the mean LP seems to transfer East across the UK. Could give us a SEterly flow perhaps???.

[Gavin Hannah]

Went raking through the Archives to see how we were setup compared with the winters a couple a years ago.

First, 6 January 2010 - Just before the Epic cold arrived.

December 15th 2010 - again just before the epic cold arrived.

Our current setup.

Both of the previous two cold blasts had HP parked just off our west coast... If we can find any of that again this winter, then it'll be time to get the champers out. Until then, I fear we will struggle to get any significant cold and snow that isn't just fleeting.

That said, the first two weeks of December this year have been fairly cold with some decent snow across a portion of the country. Will it be the last? Or will we find one of those hidden gems above in the next few weeks?

Edited December 11, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[pureasthedriven]

Went raking through the Archives to see how we were setup compared with the winters a couple a years ago.

First, 6 January 2010 - Just before the Epic cold arrived.

December 15th 2010

Our current setup.

Both of the previous two cold blasts had HP parked just off our west coast... If we can find any of that again this winter, then it'll be time to get the champers out. Until then, I fear we will struggle to get any significant cold and snow that isn't just fleeting.

That said, the first two weeks of December this year have been fairly cold with some decent snow across a portion of the country. Will it be the last? Or will we find one of those hidden gems above in the next few weeks?

Yep, as you rightly say, it's the Atlantic HP, which is the key there, alluding to a southerly tracking jet. As ever, it all comes down to the jet ('it's the economy, stupid = it's the jet stupid...).

Despite everything, sustained and deep cold in this country isn't rocket science. Just a weakened/southelry/bifurcated jet, +ve pressure in the Atlantic ridging up to Greenland, plenty of low pressure in the med advecting cold air westwards. Simple, eh?!

[Frosty.]

The met office don't offer much hope for another cold spell in today's update, but hopefully the ensembles are onto something

Yes Gavin, the ensembles have more promise beyond the next week, a nice cold spell on the 6z in FI and a cold spell about to begin on the ecm 00z at day 10. As for the meto, once again it will take a lot more firming up on the ensembles in the next 5 days or so before they even hint at anything colder after next week, it may seem as though we are heading back to square one but we are not, it just looks like another patient build up to the next cold opportunity which will hopefully have more bite next time.

[Timmytour]

Ok....big change needed in the 12z GFS for some sustained cold and wintry stuff in the near future....i see this coming about with the low in the Atlantic pushed substantially to the south and west of where it currently lies betwen T60 and T80 with pressure buliding and intensifying over greenland while falling over Canada. That will be enough to give the Russian High the impetus it needs to extend its influence further west and south.

It won't be a hormonally charged Easterly...not yet anyway, but i feel something of substance is coming to get people on here feeling good about things again

[latitude]

Yes Gavin, the ensembles have more promise beyond the next week, a nice cold spell on the 6z in FI and a cold spell about to begin on the ecm 00z at day 10. As for the meto, once again it will take a lot more firming up on the ensembles in the next 5 days or so before they even hint at anything colder after next week, it may seem as though we are heading back to square one but we are not, it just looks like another patient build up to the next cold opportunity which will hopefully have more bite next time.

Yes but the ensembles were showing a good cold spell right now at this time last week. So how can we even talk about what the ensemble is showing for next week, when last weeks were so off the mark.

[nick sussex]

So Nick, going by the latest charts are you going to show some leniency towards the Russian high or is it still on a two day countdown of usefulness?

Lol! Well I think we might see it help out with some troughing near the UK by extending a ridge over the top of that but I don't see a sustained easterly from it in its current location.

If you look at the GFS 06hrs run you can see how it helps but for the moment I don't think its going to take a starring role.

It's there in a supporting role and hasn't been voted into the best actor role yet by the Nick Sussex Academy!

So it might get a cold weather Oscar but has a way to go to get the more blue ribband title!

[Pixel]

Anyone got a link showing the ensemble for this week from last Tuesday? That could just go to prove how useless the ensembles can be.

as it happens I've got a few - take your pick (-:

[Frosty.]

Yes but the ensembles were showing a good cold spell right now at this time last week. So how can we even talk about what the ensemble is showing for next week, when last weeks were so off the mark.

I guess we just need to keep believing and keep reading what GP and others who know more, the alternative is to just give up.

[syncmaster]

I tend to think with the polar vortex moving across to siberia, the models were always goin to struggle

pinning anything down to a degree, and maybe thats what caused the Ensemble to be so wrong

Im guessing from purely a Newbie pov and gut feeling that now this process is in motion the models

will be more inclined to settle down now!! Trending towards the colder options date wise seems to coincide

with the pvs move to its new residence. probably talkin load of bull but just my thoughts today.

Dave

[nick sussex]

I guess we just need to keep believing and keep reading what GP and others who know more, the alternative is to just give up.

Frosty you're getting as melodramatic as me! I think I'm a bad influence!

Just for you:

IMO one of the greatest songs ever, featuring my all time favourite female artist and puts to shame most of the tosh that masquerades as music today!

I think I'm showing my age here!

You never know Frosty whats round the corner, if we can slow down those lows and a bit more energy heads se then things may change quickly!

You know Kate Bush did a whole album about snow! so shes one of us! I'm glad the mods didn't delete this, no one messes with KB! lol

Edited December 11, 2012 by nick sussex

[pyrotech]

Both Ecm and Gfs show height growing over greenland. Gfs goes further still by watching it ridge down into the Atlantic to our west. The trend is for the greenie high to form need to see more runs before saying it will ridge into atlantic. Some positive signs for cold to have potential. Going to use that word potential as its all in fi and not to raise hopes but to give something to watch on models.

[Absolute Zero]

As the low approaches and pulls moisture into Europe it looks like there will be widespread heavy snow. Scandinavia could get buried. How does snow cover effect the block and do the models take this into account?

[Katiewombat]

I remember many occasions in the 80's where this type of synoptic pattern occurred. Every time the TV & media warned of the Atlantic sweeping away the cold Eastern block followed by "mild and mellow muck". I remember buying a sledge in "87" from a local garage.......the attendent said "no chance of cold weather, said so on TV". A week later I called back ( had to walk due to heavy snowfall that had closed the motorway ). How did you know it was going to get cold he said !!

oh and all of the sledges have been sold !

I would say that in around of 50% of those situations the initial "push" from the west failed or was delayed. In around probably 1/3 of cases the Cold did actually persevere and the Media had to do a quick U turn on their forecasts.

I'm not saying this will happen this week but there is most definately the potential there and I cant see one professional body advising of this albeit small possiblity.

So agree long time lurker here. 5th winter if following this forum. Mind you I still haven't learnt to read the models as this forum eats most my spare time.

Intuition says this colds going nowhere. Just waiting for the models to twig.

Katie

Ps thank you to all of you for entertaining me each winter

[Buriedundersnow]

well i'm gonna stick it out there i think this time we WILL get a good cold spell

[bobbydog]

I tend to think with the polar vortex moving across to siberia, the models were always goin to struggle

pinning anything down to a degree, and maybe thats what caused the Ensemble to be so wrong

Im guessing from purely a Newbie pov and gut feeling that now this process is in motion the models

will be more inclined to settle down now!! Trending towards the colder options date wise seems to coincide

with the pvs move to its new residence. probably talkin load of bull but just my thoughts today.

Dave

i don't think thats bull at all. i think the relocation of the PV is the key to all this. in previous runs, the best looking charts for cold, had the PV moving well into siberia, staying as one big mass, 'pushing' the block towards us.

here it is now-

heres +144 which is how we want it to stay and keep moving into siberia

at the end of this run its fallen apart along with our cold chances

the movement of the PV from about +144 will decide our fate, (not the models)

[Zenarcher]

When looking through how the ECM and other models performed earlier last week to see how they picked up the Atlantic weather coming in and if they maintained the heights to our North, they dealt with it pretty bad at 192 on wards they did pick it up but the exact details were way off.

Over the coming days we saw small upgrades, high pressures like the Russian high being under estimated all the time and getting upgraded and low pressure systems being over done and downgraded this has helped us end up with charts looking decent despite the Atlantic spell expected at the end of the week.

Some of the models a few days ago in FI showed PV just crashing in and taking over after the Atlantic spell but I would say we are lucky to have right now a blocked pattern remaining after the Atlantic spell and some potential for cold on the way around Christmas time.

[bluearmy]

Ok....big change needed in the 12z GFS for some sustained cold and wintry stuff in the near future....i see this coming about with the low in the Atlantic pushed substantially to the south and west of where it currently lies betwen T60 and T80 with pressure buliding and intensifying over greenland while falling over Canada. That will be enough to give the Russian High the impetus it needs to extend its influence further west and south.

It won't be a hormonally charged Easterly...not yet anyway, but i feel something of substance is coming to get people on here feeling good about things again

nurse !!!!

[Frosty.]

Frosty you're getting as melodramatic as me! I think I'm a bad influence!

Just for you:

IMO one of the greatest songs ever, featuring my all time favourite female artist and puts to shame most of the tosh that masquerades as music today!

I think I'm showing my age here!

You never know Frosty whats round the corner, if we can slow down those lows and a bit more energy heads se then things may change quickly!

You know Kate Bush did a whole album about snow! so shes one of us! I'm glad the mods didn't delete this, no one messes with KB! lol

Nice one Nick