Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 10th Dec

[Cheshire Freeze]

i cant help wondering if i'm looking at the same output as everyone else. forget the detail of ecm op post day 6/7. Look at the upstream pattern. Does that look like delivering zonal dross? The trough will run out of energy and disrupt slowly. All up for grabs as we go through next week.

The thing is...upstream patterns, NH patterns etc etc are all well and good but in reality they mean jack if we have LP parked to our west for days on end or a piece of energy preventing a decent synoptic set up from manifesting. We could just end up being unlucky this month. It happens.

[Snowly does it]

i cant help wondering if i'm looking at the same output as everyone else. forget the detail of ecm op post day 6/7. Look at the upstream pattern. Does that look like delivering zonal dross? The trough will run out of energy and disrupt slowly. All up for grabs as we go through next week.

No, I see that too as a possible way forward. I think it's just a combo of that being T200+ away and irritation at the failsterly which is causing disillusionment.

[nick sussex]

i cant help wondering if i'm looking at the same output as everyone else. forget the detail of ecm op post day 6/7. Look at the upstream pattern. Does that look like delivering zonal dross? The trough will run out of energy and disrupt slowly. All up for grabs as we go through next week.

Yes it will probably disrupt but even so I don't see an easterly with star potential, perhaps a ne flow as the trough sinks.

The 240hrs ECM is interesting upstream, maybe we can see some pressure rises to the nw and a northeasterly around the southern flank of that but I really don't see an easterly off that Siberian high.

As I said its got a stay of execution! two more days and I'm sending in the nukes!lol

Edited December 10, 2012 by nick sussex

[cooling climate]

ECM showing some consistency in its operational output which is a shame as it was about to send me to sleep!

A stalemate ensues with the Russian block drunk on Vodka and passed out somewhere in the Urals, the troughing over the UK remains limpeted fed by a continual stream of energy upstream.

A hint of interest coming out of Canada at 240hrs, at this moment in time I'd rather the block to the east decided to move back east to some Siberian salt mine and stayed there as its not really doing us any favours.!

Its getting to the point now where anytime a Scandinavian or Siberian high is being modeled you get a sinking feeling.

Days go by with the models tooing and frowing with little return at the end. When they do come off there is nothing

better than seeing that deep cold pool aligne itself with the UK and winterwonderland is only a couple of days away.

The models could play around with the high for several more days yet unsure whether it will play a direct part in our

weather or just sit to the east stagnating the pattern.

[Backtrack]

We can only comment on what is in front of us at this moment in time though Jordan. A persistent and stalled block to the east as is currently shown has as much potential to lock us in to a wet and windy spell of weather as a Bartlett high has as much potential to lock in and bring incessant SW'ly winds and a moist warm flow. As Nick and other people have pointed out, the chances of that high out east exerting more influence by extending back west looks very slim; so the best case scenario we're effectively left with is for it to clear off so we can at least have the potential for Greenland height rises.

Very true mate, but just check out the background signals from all ops, teleconnections and ensemble suits over the past 2 weeks for a severe cold spell over the period.

What have we been left with?

A half hearted cold 'snap' or 'blip' in the form of a weak northerly, opposed to an absolute beast of an easterly with moderate support shown a few days ago. The only model with some moderate consistency has been the MOGREPS. We may not have access to it but it's been the MOGREPS with consistent suggestions of SW'erly winds vs the rest. It's clear which was the winner, so some serious questioning needs to be done as to where the weather will go from here.

Check out my signature. GP is rarely wrong, so I'll take that slim chance of the Russian High moving westwards, because as has been demonstrated clearly in these past 2 weeks is that NOTHING is EVER nailed on.

Edited December 10, 2012 by Backtrack

[Snowly does it]

The thing is...upstream patterns, NH patterns etc etc are all well and good but in reality they mean jack if we have LP parked to our west for days on end or a piece of energy preventing a decent synoptic set up from manifesting. We could just end up being unlucky this month. It happens.

True but the trough will decay, so unless the upstream provides new energy for the jet, things will change and would, given the circumstances stated, probably change favourably for cold.

[JCP]

We can only comment on what is in front of us at this moment in time though Jordan. A persistent and stalled block to the east as is currently shown has as much potential to lock us in to a wet and windy spell of weather as a Bartlett high has as much potential to lock in and bring incessant SW'ly winds and a moist warm flow. As Nick and other people have pointed out, the chances of that high out east exerting more influence by extending back west looks very slim; so the best case scenario we're effectively left with is for it to clear off so we can at least have the potential for Greenland height rises.

Likewise, wishing for the high to 'clear off' won't make a blind bit of difference.

Also, we hear the wish for a 'reset' every winter and all we end up with is 3 weeks of westerlies.

[chris55]

I can understand why people might want to hang onto the Russian high for a few more days but unless you see a strong signal to retrogress the pattern then its really time to look elsewhere for some cold potential.

I agree Nick, retrogression of the Russian high ( quite a rare occurrence) is the only way to get the "proper cold" back in the frame as we head towards Christmas. Two things that may make this possible is the strat profile and the lack of a strong northern arm of the jet. The movement of the PV towards Siberia is interesting and IF we can get this to send it's energy down the eastern side of the Russian high then we are seriously in business , with the "quieter" area around Greenland.

ECM at 216 forces the energy against the block on the western side, and in turn this leads to less inerest for us,

But at range and with quite an unusual NH pattern things are still open to change.

[Cheshire Freeze]

True but the trough will decay, so unless the upstream provides new energy for the jet, things will change and would, given the circumstances stated, probably change favourably for cold.

Yes things will change and I sincerely hope that they change in favour of some of the white stuff! As soon as I see a strong suggestion of this I'll be the first to send out a cheer. Been almost a full calendar year since I've seen a proper fall of the white stuff! December last year was the last time off that marginal (and brief) Nw'ly flow. Got 3cm of the stuff.

[itsnowjoke]

quite a lot of different opinions tonight, its like the will it wont it forum.

As for taking a break from the models jees i wish i could ,just cant help it im torturing myself lol

Edited December 10, 2012 by itsnowjoke

[Gavin Hannah]

I think we all need to retire and reconvene for the Pub run. The last two have been pretty good, it may deliver some Yule tidings!

[Ian Brown]

i cant help wondering if i'm looking at the same output as everyone else. forget the detail of ecm op post day 6/7. Look at the upstream pattern. Does that look like delivering zonal dross? The trough will run out of energy and disrupt slowly. All up for grabs as we go through next week.

That is certainly the hope if the jet can amplify upstream, we could see height rises in the mid-Atlantic and then towards Greenland. The GFS hints at this but then quickly flattens things.

I'd be careful about wanting to lose the Russian High, the further the jet gets North and East, the more pressure rises from the South, yes there might be PM incursions if depressions can pass the Merdian, but my position at the moment is that if that High slips East it's the road to conventional Zonality.

[bradymk]

Yes things will change and I sincerely hope that they change in favour of some of the white stuff! As soon as I see a strong suggestion of this I'll be the first to send out a cheer. Been almost a full calendar year since I've seen a proper fall of the white stuff! December last year was the last time off that marginal (and brief) Nw'ly flow. Got 3cm of the stuff.

Could be worse, could be here in Pembrokeshire where we havent since Dec 2010 where we only had a couple of inches then even though we had the severe cold. Like you said lets hope for a favourable change over the next few days but if we can get the pattern more amplified which I think it will towards Xmas then i think height rises to our NW and a northerly flow is plausible as the trough over us continues to disrupt. I cant see a severe cold spell but lets hope some more cold charts start appearing over the next few days from a coldie pov. I would take a week or two of atlantic for a christmas/new year northerly

[Mark Bayley]

i cant help wondering if i'm looking at the same output as everyone else. forget the detail of ecm op post day 6/7. Look at the upstream pattern. Does that look like delivering zonal dross? The trough will run out of energy and disrupt slowly. All up for grabs as we go through next week.

Yes, and the already disorganised/weak PV looks to be taking more hits as we head into the 2nd part of the month, with wave one activity set to increase yet again in the strat.

With clear signs for the PV to trend towards Siberia, i would be looking for height rises towards Greenland as we head into and through the xmas period. Perhaps an xmas northerly? Will be watching the models with interest over the coming days

Edited December 10, 2012 by Mark Bayley

[Gavin Hannah]

Yes, and the already disorganised/weak PV looks to be taking more hits as we head into the 2nd part of the month, with wave one activity set to increase yet again in the strat.

With clear signs for the PV to trend towards Siberia, i would be looking for height rises towards Greenland as we head towards and through the xmas period. Perhaps an xmas northerly? Will be watching the models with interest over the coming days

There was a FI Xmas beasterly on last nights Pub run...........

[nick sussex]

I agree Nick, retrogression of the Russian high ( quite a rare occurrence) is the only way to get the "proper cold" back in the frame as we head towards Christmas. Two things that may make this possible is the strat profile and the lack of a strong northern arm of the jet. The movement of the PV towards Siberia is interesting and IF we can get this to send it's energy down the eastern side of the Russian high then we are seriously in business , with the "quieter" area around Greenland.

ECM at 216 forces the energy against the block on the western side, and in turn this leads to less inerest for us,

But at range and with quite an unusual NH pattern things are still open to change.

Yes thats why I'm giving it two more days incase what you suggested happens, that way I don't look like a fool!

Within that timeframe we could see if there are any signs to retrogress the pattern.The overall NH pattern is not terrible in terms of some of the horror shows we've seen in the past and certainly after the recent easterly tragedy a little luck is certainly due.

[Frosty.]

I don't think the russian high wants to be our friend, I can only see it being pushed further away once the jet fires up and we get into a fluid west to east type pattern. It probably means we are going to have to pin our hopes on a mid atlantic ridge and maybe a northerly but northerlies are rubbish unless they can be sustained, topplers are a waste of time. The best chance we have IMO is for a southerly tracking jet and hope we can tap into some more cold air next week because it will soon be turning a bit milder, wet and windy for all areas by the weekend onwards.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes thats why I'm giving it two more days incase what you suggested happens, that way I don't look like a fool!

Within that timeframe we could see if there are any signs to retrogress the pattern.The overall NH pattern is not terrible in terms of some of the horror shows we've seen in the past and certainly after the recent easterly tragedy a little luck is certainly due.

Haha Nick, the weather can make even the seasoned professionals look like fools at times!

Nope by no means a terrible hemispheric pattern at all. In fact at face value it's one of quite a blocked set up. However for us and our little patch it means very little at this very moment in time. However this can all change at quite short notice.

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is the latest report on the 12z output from GFS, UKMO and ECM for this evening Monday December 10th 2012.

All models show High pressure close to or over the UK over the next 48 hours, slowly slipping SE into NW Europe. The resultant cold and settled conditions will persist for all through this period with widespread frost and increasing amounts of freezing fog over Southern and Western areas persisting all day in places. By Thursday winds will begin increasing from the South with some weak troughing moving North in the flow with some rain and hill snow in places. By Friday a vigorous Low pressure is shown to approach Britain from the Atlantic with a complex array of active fronts moving NE in the flow across SW Britain then on to other areas by the end of Friday. temperatures would be on the rise in all areas.

GFS then shows a complex Low pressure area out to the NW filling slowly but maintaining a windy and wet picture for many with showers or longer spells of rain in temperatures close to the seasonal normal. Through FI the weather remains dogmatically wet at times with a succession of Lows and fronts moving from the NW with the trend for them to fill as they drift SE into Europe before reloading from the West. Somewhat colder weather will occur occasionally as the Lows migrate to Europe with some risk of frost in places overnight.

The GFS Ensembles show a period of normal temperatures and unsettled weather with copious rainfall affecting may parts of the UK through the period. There is no trend for anything cold shown on the horizon or for that matter anything particularly mild either with stalling Low pressure in the vicinity of the UK the more likely outcome.

The Jet Stream shows the current Southward moving flow over the UK dying out in preference to a fast flowing Eastward moving streak heading across the Atlantic towards France and the UK over the coming week or so.

UKMO for midday on Sunday shows Low pressure over Scotland with a strong and blustery Westerly flow carrying frequent showers with the risk of longer spells of rain too sweeping East at times in the flow. Temperatures would be near normal or just below with the risk of snow on the higher Northern hills.

ECM tonight shows a very disturbed spell too with Low pressure anchored over or to the West of the UK with unsettled weather with periods of rain and showers for all, heaviest in the South and West where the winds will be strongest too. With an Atlantic feed temperatures will never be desperately cold but it will feel cold in the wind and there is some chance of some snow on higher hills in the North at times. The run ends with no change to the overall pattern with Low pressure stalled over Britain with very unsettled and wet weather continuing for all.

In Summary tonight there are some worrying developments for parts of the UK in the model run periods. After a few days of cold and very frosty weather with the risk of severe weather from freezing fog in Southern and Western Britain the weather flips by the end of the week with a spell of rain and hill snow introducing a potentially noteworthy and newsworthy return to very wet conditions with rain and severe gales, especially in the SW. What's most worrying is the longevity of this locked pattern looking forward is the potential for repeated Low pressure areas stalling near the UK providing frequent occasions of heavy disruptive rainfall for many areas as time progresses. I feel if tonight's charts verify that there could be some severe flooding problems for parts of the UK. Away from that there seems little prospect of an immediate return to cold anytime soon though there are a few embryonic signs late in ECM of something colder beyond 10 days. I will need to see many more runs with cross model support though before I will make much of them in my summaries.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

As this is the Model output the hunt for cold I believe I have come up with the goods....sadly we will have to wait until January if the CFS is to believed (I know its as good as a chocolate fire guard) but where theres a chance theres a hope.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2012/12/09/basis00/euro/pslv/12123100_0900.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2012/12/09/basis00/euro/pslv/13011512_0900.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2012/12/09/basis00/euro/pslv/13012212_0900.gif

[stainesbloke]

I think we all need to retire and reconvene for the Pub run. The last two have been pretty good, it may deliver some Yule tidings!

Like your optimism Hoping for SOME sign of Atlantic weakening as today's runs have been quite poor for cold. Actually I'm hoping the Russian high buggers off east, letting the Atlantic in for a bit then opening the door to the north.

[Muffelchen]

Well after all the hype of last week which got my hopes up, although I was following the models closely just to make sure that things did not go pear-shaped, the pear duly appeared in the shape of the proverbial shortwave of doom and, in spite of everything else (shattered PV, future teleconnections, negative anomalies etc.) the Atlantic, which was supposed to be nowhere in sight, now appears to have won the day - although of the cool zonal variety.

Some on here are still hoping for retrogression of the Scandi High and others for a rebuilding of the Greeny High. However, in the medium term, until the vortex relocates (let's hope that happens!), this is in all honesty, clutching at straws.

In view oif this and the indications that things may now not change much until mid January, I am going to admit defeat and get my life back. I have spent many hopeful hours watching this renamed thread and its predecessors anticipating cold and now I feel it will not appear until mid January, half way through the winter.

With that I think I will bid adieu to this thread for the next few weeks and do something 'less boring instead' as Tony Hart once said. It has been a blast, but sadly not an easterly one. Hopefully I will be surprised by the 'real' weather this month but, in all honestry, I don't think so.

[Snowmad79]

Does anyone know if Kayaks are any good for sledging ? I'm just wondering whether to buy one. That way, no matter what happens, its win win as far as winter weather activities go.

[Gavin Hannah]

Does anyone know if Kayaks are any good for sledging ? I'm just wondering whether to buy one. That way, no matter what happens, its win win as far as winter weather activities go.

If the snow is deep enough then yes, I would say it would be lol.

[woldsowl]

I don't think the russian high wants to be our friend, I can only see it being pushed further away once the jet fires up and we get into a fluid west to east type pattern. It probably means we are going to have to pin our hopes on a mid atlantic ridge and maybe a northerly but northerlies are rubbish unless they can be sustained, topplers are a waste of time. The best chance we have IMO is for a southerly tracking jet and hope we can tap into some more cold air next week because it will soon be turning a bit milder, wet and windy for all areas by the weekend onwards.

Topplers may be a waste for you, but they can be fantastic here. Bring it on.

Also looking to get my life back now after some painful model watching. Not looking good for the beast, so will be looking to the North west for some pressure rises.