Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 10th Dec

[xioni]

ECM is quite poor tonight for cold weather, in fact next week it's very warm for the whole of W.Europe

[-uksnow-]

Time to batten down the hatches by 216 again ... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&archive=0 -.-.

[Stuie]

With all interest being focused on the East and the West (for cold), how about the North? It is FI but a surprise from a northerly? The Russian high moves north and joins the PV whilst in the mean time the Azores High is allowed to pay a visit but then gets crushed by a N/NW?

[MR EXTREMES]

the 216hrs its above average temps but only slightly with double figures possible not that id bother reading into fi charts to much.

but after this possibly a se tracking low pressure system could this be intresting notice heights over greenland building to.

Edited December 10, 2012 by badboy657

[Summer Sun]

Round 2 next Wednesday according to ECM (that's "the pest from the west" low pressure heading our way)

Edited December 10, 2012 by Gavin.

[-uksnow-]

Not an awful 240 hours chart with scope for a northerly looking likely, Heights moving and growing from North America heading towards Greenland possibly supporting a northerly incursion later down the line, something to look out for as it has been showing on the GFS recently aswell.

http://www.meteociel...map=1&archive=0

Reason for edit: forgot link to 240 chart

Edited December 10, 2012 by -eded-

[Cheshire Freeze]

Round 2 next Wednesday according to ECM (that's low pressure heading our way)

Yes a potentially serious situation setting up now for areas such as SW England. Not what we want to see just before Christmas.

[Snowmad79]

i suspect thats why stewart hasnt posted for a day or two. maybe he doesnt believe what the trop modelling is churrning out so what is there to say?

Or he could be lamenting the possibility that his forecast for Overall Cold and Dry "could" be left in tatters if we are unlucky and get stuck in an Atlantic dominated pattern. Many a winter have been ruined (or at least vast parts of it) with senarios progged.... Stalling LP in the Atlantic and a Stubborn block doing us no favours.

The first 10 days of December have already produced a fair amount of Wind and Rain for many and we are again staring down the barrel at the Atlantic.

[nick sussex]

ECM showing some consistency in its operational output which is a shame as it was about to send me to sleep!

A stalemate ensues with the Russian block drunk on Vodka and passed out somewhere in the Urals, the troughing over the UK remains limpeted fed by a continual stream of energy upstream.

A hint of interest coming out of Canada at 240hrs, at this moment in time I'd rather the block to the east decided to move back east to some Siberian salt mine and stayed there as its not really doing us any favours.!

Edited December 10, 2012 by nick sussex

[Isolated Frost]

-12c air into Germany with a wide scope for snow shrs into the Benelux and Poland from the NE at 12z tomorrow via the cold ridge splitting SE into Britain-

EC progs a pretty SE/S flow over much of Scandi and C Europe next wk via a Russian high- and a scaling SW-NE tinted jet; the D8 synopsis greatly typifies the struggle with getting a mean E flow due to energy into Svalbard

[Gavin Hannah]

A possibility that cropped up last night was the LP throwing off shortwaves into the Continent which in the longer run encouraged the HP to creep westwards. It would mean some wet and windy weather in the short term but it's a better scenario than LP after LP fizzing out over the UK.

[Summer Sun]

Deepest FI from ECM could lead to a northerly if we are lucky

Trying to remain positive

[Jason M]

ECM showing some consistency in its operational output which is a shame as it was about to send me to sleep!

A stalemate ensues with the Russian block drunk on Vodka and passed out somewhere in the Urals, the troughing over the UK remains limpeted fed by a continual stream of energy upstream.

A hint of interest coming out of Canada at 240hrs, at this moment in time I'd rather the block to the east decided to move back east to some Siberian salt mine and stayed there as its not really doing us any favours.!

I think your right on this. Siberian high pressure cells rarely get far enough west to really deliver. From memory it was a similar scenario last feb. the high pressure over scandi on both occasions was really just a ridge thrown from the main cell. No good will come of this particular feature and we would be better off if it declines or moves away east. We need a separate high to form somewhere between scandi and Greenland.

This pattern could hold for some time otherwise and the rest of the month could be southerly wind based although never particularly warm.

Jason

[LomondSnowstorm]

ECM showing some consistency in its operational output which is a shame as it was about to send me to sleep!

A stalemate ensues with the Russian block drunk on Vodka and passed out somewhere in the Urals, the troughing over the UK remains limpeted fed by a continual stream of energy upstream.

A hint of interest coming out of Canada at 240hrs, at this moment in time I'd rather the block to the east decided to move back east to some Siberian salt mine and stayed there as its not really doing us any favours.!

Looks like we're close to the point now where that high is becoming a hinderance rather than a help, it was pretty speculative whether we could salvage anything from it yesterday but now it just looks like a lost cause. Looks like we're going to have to look for our old (more) reliable friend the mid Atlantic ridge up to Greenland for any proper cold this side of Christmas.

[nick sussex]

Deepest FI from ECM could lead to a northerly if we are lucky

Trying to remain positive

Yes a chance if that Russian high realizes its outstayed its welcome.

The Russian high looks good on a chart but isn't much help if its going to just sit there.

[Matty M]

Well what a terrible set of runs from this evenings 12z. They have pretty much drained any hope of a cold spell for the next 16 days away.

Time to take a week break from model watching methinks.

There has even been a removal of what could have been an ineteresting storm or two.

At the moment just a bunch of mature lows forecast.

Biggest snooze fest of a 12z in a long long time.

We need a synoptic reset or it will be January before we know it.

I agree with Nick Suss, We need ride of the Siberian High, it is only going to wasted a good portion of our winter at the moment

And as i have outlined many times in the past. the UK 90% of the time needs a GREENLAND block to sustain a cold spell.

So crucial./

Edited December 10, 2012 by Matty M

[chris55]

As the Oasis song goes....."Little by Little" The PV is simply non existent on our side of the globe, surely we can eek somthing out of this?

Edited December 10, 2012 by chris55

[Gavin Hannah]

Well what a terrible set of runs from this evenings 12z. They have pretty much drained any hope of a cold spell for the next 16 days away.

Time to take a week break from model watching methinks.

There has even been a removal of what could have been an ineteresting storm or two.

At the moment just a bunch of mature lows forecast.

Biggest snooze fest of a 12z in a long long time.

We need a synoptic reset or it will be January before we know it.

I agree with Nick Suss, We need ride of the Siberian High, it is only going to wasted a good portion of our winter at the moment

And as i have outlined many times in the past. the UK 90% of the time needs a GREENLAND block to sustain a cold spell.

So crucial./

One posibility is if the HP can put a beat down on the LP and link up with Greenland. A flatter easterly would still give us some cracking weather. I don't see why that LP is extending towards Iceland once it hits the UK. The natural flow would take the LP south east and under the HP.. Damn fickle mother nature.

[Snowly does it]

Looks like we're close to the point now where that high is becoming a hinderance rather than a help, it was pretty speculative whether we could salvage anything from it yesterday but now it just looks like a lost cause. Looks like we're going to have to look for our old (more) reliable friend the mid Atlantic ridge up to Greenland for any proper cold this side of Christmas.

Yes, absolutely. We need HP to our North and North West.

The Siberian High is no good unless we get undercutting which draws it back, but that simply isn't progged. It's a possible evolution but not one that is favoured by output at this time. An Azores ridge to Greenland IS supported by some model output and trend. Some not all. What's the betting we get an Azores-Siberian link up morphing into a giant Euro High with a screaming jet firing lp after lp up the West coast?

The trouble with snow casting at the moment is up to T72 is our cold snap and then out to at least T168 we have the aftermath of Atlantic incursion progged. So we have nothing in high rea to get our hopes,up.

My prediction is that by Weds 0z suite we will start seeing some cold solutions on the models inside.T180. But will they come off?

[Snowmad79]

One posibility is if the HP can put a beat down on the LP and link up with Greenland. A flatter easterly would still give us some cracking weather. I don't see why that LP is extending towards Iceland once it hits the UK. The natural flow would take the LP south east and under the HP.. Damn fickle mother nature.

It has nowhere else to go. 0- 48 shows HP splitting and it sinks into Europe via the split in the Jet. The powered up jet follows this and LP is left with no where to go other that hitting the block and spinning northwards and back on itself.

[peterf]

take a break folks,works wonder's.

[Backtrack]

Well what a terrible set of runs from this evenings 12z. They have pretty much drained any hope of a cold spell for the next 16 days away.

Time to take a week break from model watching methinks.

There has even been a removal of what could have been an ineteresting storm or two.

At the moment just a bunch of mature lows forecast.

Biggest snooze fest of a 12z in a long long time.

We need a synoptic reset or it will be January before we know it.

I agree with Nick Suss, We need ride of the Siberian High, it is only going to wasted a good portion of our winter at the moment

And as i have outlined many times in the past. the UK 90% of the time needs a GREENLAND block to sustain a cold spell.

So crucial./

I love a bit of poetry but writing off a cold spell within a 16 day time frame isn't a brave call. It's a foolish one. Models can't even get a proper grasp of conditions past T+120 and you're talking about T+384?

[nick sussex]

I can understand why people might want to hang onto the Russian high for a few more days but unless you see a strong signal to retrogress the pattern then its really time to look elsewhere for some cold potential.

Generally as was mentioned Siberian highs making it far enough west to deliver to the UK are very rare.A ridge to the east can sometimes help if you have that joining forces with a retrogressing Azores high.

Easterlies are always more likely with a smaller high pressure cell over Scandi which is close enough to take advantage of some trough disruption near the UK.

As you can see here the UK would be right at the western edge of that huge high and thats always the weak link which is what happened last February.

Of course I would love to see that Siberian high being catapulted westwards but we've really seen no sign of this, we've seen the odd run with a brief ne flow as the trough sunk but absolutely no sign of an easterly with convective snow potential.

So I'm happy to see it disappear off the sign but will give it a stay of execution for a few more days incase it decides to get a move on.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I love a bit of poetry but writing off a cold spell within a 16 day time frame isn't a brave call. It's a foolish one. Models can't even get a proper grasp of conditions past T+120 and you're talking about T+384?

We can only comment on what is in front of us at this moment in time though Jordan. A persistent and stalled block to the east as is currently shown has as much potential to lock us in to a wet and windy spell of weather as a Bartlett high has as much potential to lock in and bring incessant SW'ly winds and a moist warm flow. As Nick and other people have pointed out, the chances of that high out east exerting more influence by extending back west looks very slim; so the best case scenario we're effectively left with is for it to clear off so we can at least have the potential for Greenland height rises.

[bluearmy]

i cant help wondering if i'm looking at the same output as everyone else. forget the detail of ecm op post day 6/7. Look at the upstream pattern. Does that look like delivering zonal dross? The trough will run out of energy and disrupt slowly. All up for grabs as we go through next week.