Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 10th Dec

[Timmytour]

Does anyone know if Kayaks are any good for sledging ? I'm just wondering whether to buy one. That way, no matter what happens, its win win as far as winter weather activities go.

You'll be cold if you get one. You can't have your kayak and heat it

[SouthPennine88]

Topplers may be a waste for you, but they can be fantastic here. Bring it on.

Also looking to get my life back now after some painful model watching. Not looking good for the beast, so will be looking to the North west for some pressure rises.

A nice toppler would do just nicely for Northern and Eastern areas ... I think they are underrated though because they usually bring snowfall but just don't last very long.

Hopeful of one around 21-26th (somewhere in that period).

[bobbydog]

Does anyone know if Kayaks are any good for sledging ? I'm just wondering whether to buy one. That way, no matter what happens, its win win as far as winter weather activities go.

they certainly are, red bull have an annual snow kayak championship!

[stainesbloke]

Does anyone know if Kayaks are any good for sledging ? I'm just wondering whether to buy one. That way, no matter what happens, its win win as far as winter weather activities go.

Actually witnessed this whilst sledging 2 years ago, a group of local pikeys were using a racing boat. Worked ok til it started spinning half way down the hill throwing most of the people out

[billy]

i cant help wondering if i'm looking at the same output as everyone else. forget the detail of ecm op post day 6/7. Look at the upstream pattern. Does that look like delivering zonal dross? The trough will run out of energy and disrupt slowly. All up for grabs as we go through next week.

Hi BA , the latest met updates seem to suggest zonal dross for the rest of december

[Davey80]

Hi BA , the latest met updates seem to suggest zonal dross for the rest of december

Rest of the winter too! What they have seen to suddenly turn the winter into an above average one is a concern.

[IDO]

A better map, perhaps:

http://www.meteociel...?&ech=72&mode=2

Shows a transitional event; by the next 6 hour step it is rain. Midday'ish so may run into rush hour in some areas.

Edited December 10, 2012 by i'm dreaming of...

[-uksnow-]

Hi BA , the latest met updates seem to suggest zonal dross for the rest of december

With all due respect to the met, as the do a fantastic job in the short range, their longer range outputs are no more reliable than anyone elses on here

[SouthPennine88]

Rest of the winter too! What they have seen to suddenly turn the winter into an above average one is a concern.

Where are people getting this information from?

need a link

[xioni]

ECM ensemble mean has the same pattern persisting from 180 to 360h! Ridge in W.Russia, another ridge near the Hudson Bay and a permanent trough over the UK

Very wet with normal to cool temps is a fair description for it. At least it shows the 12z op to be a warm outlier next week and also slowly heights are rising in the Atlantic towards Xmas

[billy]

Rest of the winter too! What they have seen to suddenly turn the winter into an above average one is a concern.

And the silence on here tonight from the big guns is a concern too

[Methuselah]

Does anyone know if Kayaks are any good for sledging ? I'm just wondering whether to buy one. That way, no matter what happens, its win win as far as winter weather activities go.

No idea, mate. But I wouldn't want to attack some white water, on a sledge!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Where are people getting this information from?

need a link

Perhaps this might explain. Higher pressure to our south in the winter is not too clever if you are wanting cold/snow in the UK

http://www.metoffice...eter_public.png

Edited December 10, 2012 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[bluenose79]

Just a quick question, how come there is so much certainty stated by some people that it will be mild well into January now? Models suddenly reliable?

[winterof79]

Just a thought....when we have had a strong block and no PV sat over Greenland in the past,i cant recall an easterly blast at least until New year.I am sure we had a few near misses in the 70s and 80s before we got a real shot.

http://www.wetterzen...00119781210.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119861210.gif

The PV in 79 and 87 had set itself over Siberia in those cases and looks like trying to do the same eventually.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.png

The Dec 86 chart is similar to what we have.Many colder winters have to endure mild as i am sure you all know.

Jason

I should add for those who do not know,that it got a little cooler thereafter.

Edited December 10, 2012 by winterof79

[Eskimo]

I wouldn't be despondent guys...as others have mentioned, although the models show nothing amazing, I'm sure things will change dramatically as they always do, the models are very volatile at the moment.

[SouthPennine88]

And the silence on here tonight from the big guns is a concern too

This is a thread for model discussion ...

And it is quite clear that there is no widespread cold on the horizon in the length of the model runs ...

That perhaps explains why there is nothing to really report here tonight.

As for this seemingly mysterious forecast 'update' from the MO showing an above average Winter, please could you provide a link?

[blackprince]

Actually witnessed this whilst sledging 2 years ago, a group of local pikeys were using a racing boat. Worked ok til it started spinning half way down the hill throwing most of the people out

Hi I have done it with a flat bottomed sea canoe with or without snow! but a mate lost control on snow and crashed through the back of a beach hut!!!

[seabreeze86]

Lets hope the aussies are onto something, The BOM shows a Greenland high setting up with a impending northerly at 240 hrs

Straw clutching i no but just one outcome of many over the next 10 to 14 days. We can hope

[swfc]

I really have invested a lot of time chasing the prolonged cold spell most of us thought was signed, sealed and delivered but surely you must agree it's all gone a bit pete tong? especially now the meto have changed their tune in the 6-15 day range. I'm not saying we won't have a cold spell because we are in a better synoptical position than a year ago but it looks like we are again looking for T+240 range to show a flicker of something for us to cling to again.

Have too agree there Frosty.All the trends and signals have left a lot to be desired over the last three weeks or so.As for the outlook again who nos but im sure as we speak the next installment of ssw,tanking nao ete is going to bring a severe cols spell

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Lets hope the aussies are onto something, The BOM shows a Greenland high setting up with a impending northerly at 240 hrs http://modeles.meteo.../bom-0-240.png?

Straw clutching i no but just one outcome of many over the next 10 to 14 days. We can hope

Biggest straw clutch of all time! BOM is a crap model, I am just hoping for as many dry even sunny days as possible between friday and 31st Dec

I dont mind the mild as much if its dry

[loafer]

What is fascinating is how equal the battle seems to be between the dartboard low and the blocking high.

I think the undercutting now forecast for Thursday may be an interesting signal that the power of the low gets dissipated as hese two forces meet each other head on like a pair of Sumo wrestlers.

If the low does lose some of it's power, the situation could change very rapidly.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Have too agree there Frosty.All the trends and signals have left a lot to be desired over the last three weeks or so.As for the outlook again who nos but im sure as we speak the next installment of ssw,tanking nao ete is going to bring a severe cols spell

I think we can be assured that the Greenland high will make an appearance...

........in May! Where it will sit in situ for 3-4 months.

Who said long range forecasting was hard?!

Edited December 10, 2012 by CreweCold

[SnowBallz]

Biggest straw clutch of all time! BOM is a crap model, I am just hoping for as many dry even sunny days as possible between friday and 31st Dec

I dont mind the mild as much if its dry

I don't know about that; its base platform is the UKMO.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I don't think the russian high wants to be our friend, I can only see it being pushed further away once the jet fires up and we get into a fluid west to east type pattern. It probably means we are going to have to pin our hopes on a mid atlantic ridge and maybe a northerly but northerlies are rubbish unless they can be sustained, topplers are a waste of time. The best chance we have IMO is for a southerly tracking jet and hope we can tap into some more cold air next week because it will soon be turning a bit milder, wet and windy for all areas by the weekend onwards.

So are you suggesting that the jet is about to become rampant and stay rampant? I thought with the vortex missing with only a small bit of energy left from it would mean once this trough fills that opens more doors again?