Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 10th Dec

[Timmytour]

Come on low at +138.....sink damn you!

[Weathizard]

Is that Atlantic low phasing with the short wave? I assume this is what is stopping it from sinking south? (As well as the azores high?) SINK SINK SINK NOW

Edited December 10, 2012 by Weathizard

[Davey80]

If only the Azores high would just Swearing AGAIN off

Whoops

[nick sussex]

If only the Azores high would just Swearing AGAIN off

Whoops

No you want it to ridge nw, thats our only hope to slow the next incoming low, the trough wants to sink as the block is more favourably orientated.

If you carve more amplification ahead you're more likely to get a shortwave released se earlier, once the two lows phase the pull is nw as you can see.

Edited December 10, 2012 by nick sussex

[cooling climate]

There is a lovely cold pool running under the block from the east that should prop the

high up. Very different from the 12z run.

Could this be one of the pub runs specials coming up.

[-uksnow-]

Current thoughs at 156 are that the AH will fail to make contact with the GH and the secondary low will come and flatten out the pattern again, i am saying this purely on a learners basis hoping to learn more on each run, thanks.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=156&mode=0&carte=1

[swfc]

Well theres my north westerly at 162 hrs lol.The low weakens and so does the block!!!hmmm

[Weathizard]

Much better run within 120, hope that theme continues.

On to the fun of FI (120+) I can't see that AH ridging up, and the low thats there from 48-168 really is bloody irritating to look at, funny watching it be squashed by the high though

Edited December 10, 2012 by Weathizard

[Cheshire Freeze]

Do you think if the Atlantic took its bra off, those lows would sink south?

[nick sussex]

In a nutshell the quickest route to cold is with the Azores high retrogressing, if you get the ECM/UKMO view then as the trough and its vile off spring shortwave head east you have to wait several more days for another opportunity.

The GFS doesn't quite make it, it desperately tries but you need the energy heading se not nw.

[Gavin Hannah]

Time to stick this one in the bin.

[Weathizard]

If only we could tap into the cold projected over scandi, BRRRRRR

[kold weather]

Oh I think 180-216hrs is not going to look at all pretty, there is that tell tale low pressure tail to the SW of the Azores...that means the Azores high is heading one way...into Europe...

[-uksnow-]

Appears i may have been correct on this occaison...

flattening out at 180

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0&carte=1

[Panayiotis]

I dont see any flattening here... http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121210/18/177/hgt300.png

Edited December 10, 2012 by panayiotis

[Snowly does it]

Hmmmmmmm. It's not looking good. We need the Atlantic to push through, but it can't because of a certain Siberian HP.

Bum luck, but them' s the breaks!

Edited December 10, 2012 by snowmaiden

[Gavin Hannah]

Only difference is the angle of attack from the Atlantic at t.180. See you all in a few days.

Look familiar?????

Edited December 10, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[Timmytour]

Got a feeling the 18z is going to get us all excited again......though this time only too well aware of the caveats!

[-uksnow-]

I dont see any flattening here... http://cdn.nwstatic..../177/hgt300.png

Ok maybe my vocab was slightly off, but what i was referring to was the lack of link up between the AH and GH and the successive LP heading through and knocking down our possible MAH

[chris55]

Christmas easterly in the making? Third time lucky?

[bradymk]

Could the next ridge coming out of the Eastern US ridge northwards towards greenland, maybe, we shall see.....

[nick sussex]

In this situation once the Azores high has helped slow the Atlantic you want it severed from the Russian high by a shortwave release se , as this clears into the Continent you get the ridge backing west.

In this set up theres no middleground, its either a good ending or a bad!

[Weathizard]

The sheer scale of that Russian high really is something to behold.

And talking of the Atlantic wearing a bra, looks like the Polar Vortex has revealed her goods!

[-uksnow-]

Lift off at 252 with energy going under the block?

[cold snap]

This is a crazy run here we go another chance coming

3rd time lucky models desperate to get in a easterly