Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 12th Dec

[chicken soup]

See i knew people would come around from this negativity . The models have flipped yet again which people a few days ago said no chance to . I know they can flip to mild again but i just cant see it playing out the way the gfs shown a few days ago . Think we should watch out for the xmas week because the longer it goes on the more chance of proper cold spell happening because the strat is warming . Good times

it will be early to mid january before we see the effects of a strat warming.

[MR EXTREMES]

thanks for that post nick s i think thers always a possibility and i do think with that nice block to our northeast anything is possible.

i think once the vortex settles in its resting place i do think a change will come biut only if it locates in a ideal place.

is the vortex relocation easy to model or does anyone have enough input to explain the most likely area?

is greenland a possible place because of lack of heights there ?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

its allowed but im just stating that people should not write off the next month based on a few model runs. They will change let this be a lesson to be learned

exacly thats why people shouldnt come out with comments like " no sight of cold for the next month"

And conversely that cold/ super freeze for next few weeks nailed on etc. Its biting both ways, great model watching and fascinating. There is something boom going to happen this winter, the 06z and the wall of cold refusing to budge to our NE is very impressive. IMO with the massive LP we have over the Atlantic right now and its following little friends, if they can't bust it then IMO there is a definite sign that we have an atmospheric set up that is conducive to periods of substantive northern blocking. I'm convinced we'll get a hit, the secret will be to identify when. It is notable too that the jet is remaining on a more southerly bearing.

BFTP

Edited December 14, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[MR EXTREMES]

it will be early to mid january before we see the effects of a strat warming.

agreed wish it was sooner and i hope we do get a major strat warming event modelled.

id also like to see the effects of a major canadian warming event.

[snowmadchrisuk]

See i knew people would come around from this negativity . The models have flipped yet again which people a few days ago said no chance to . I know they can flip to mild again but i just cant see it playing out the way the gfs shown a few days ago . Think we should watch out for the xmas week because the longer it goes on the more chance of proper cold spell happening because the strat is warming . Good times

The Models haven't quite flipped in our favour yet , but what the netweather forum is doing is putting human input into the outputs to see where the 00z and 06z could have gone wrong ,, what the most likely outcome could be... This morning that block to our East is staying strong and a slab of the Vortex is Moving East .. Jet looks like remaining South with little P/V evidence around Greenland , should force low pressures (sw's) on a more southerly route and could if things pan out provide an undercut to the block and move it west putting us back in bitter NE air stream ...

[Frosty.]

Mate, are you near a brickwall, i'd use it, you will get more sense!!!!!!!!

LOL yes i'm just off to look for one now, models have improved our chances of the cold returning during next week compared to 24 hours ago when it looked bleak, lets hope the 12z runs keep it going.

[Mark Parsons]

And conversely that cold/ super freeze for next few weeks nailed on etc. Its biting both ways, great model watching and fascinating. There is something boom going to happen this winter, the 06z and the wall of cold refusing to budge to our NE is very impressive. IMO with the massive LP we have over the Atlantic right now and its following little friends, if they can't bust it then IMO there is a definite sign that we have an atmospheric set up that is conducive to periods of massive northern blocking. I'm convinced we'll egt a hit, the secret will be to identify when.

BFTP

The big IF. If we get a more colder set up by months end combined with the warming strat which should cut in by mid Jan then we could be setting up for some prolonged cold during Jan. And on another note, if cold and snow is what you want then we do not want to much wintery weather before Xmas as this usually always kills the rest of the winter and i'm talking wide spread across the country in winter terms, but I agree Blast there could be something very tasty on the cards, credit to all that you have explained.

LOL yes i'm just off to look for one now, the bottom line is the models have shown improved chances of cold returning fairly soon.

Agreed.

[Troubleatmill]

06z ensembles? again yuck, like BFTP says im sure sure something is going to go boom! this winter, there are so many peices of the Jigsaw in the right place for nothing to come off, looking west east and north, just not quite yet it would appear.

Edited December 14, 2012 by Nick JB

[Tim Bland]

Ensembles arent too bad. Show a trend for dip towards the magic -5c uppers between xmas and new year. Op was one of the mildest in the south

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

Edited December 14, 2012 by Tim Bland

[Summer Sun]

The 06z ensembles certainly show a trend to cooler weather as the year comes to an end however at this stage a green Christmas seems more likely than a white one, maybe a white new year instead?

Edited December 14, 2012 by Gavin.

[chionomaniac]

it will be early to mid january before we see the effects of a strat warming.

It may even be a little sooner than that. However we may benefit from the stratospheric vortex positioning sooner still. That will all depend on how residual energies are positioned leading up to any displacement.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

For now the secret is not to look for a major cold blast, it is less likely currently but cold incursions aren't and those should be watched out for. Many speak of the PV, we need to see the continued thumping its getting, see it kept on the ropes. I don't agree with some that we need to get rid of the block to our NE, What would be ok if we lost the Scandi block is if we saw a trough drop down into Scandi and slowly sink with the block then trying to arc back west in the arctic from Siberia. We don't want the trough from the Atlantic to march ever eastwards and push the block ESE as it is not conducive to reload but will signify the PV settling to our NW......and I think that is the lesser option ahead.

BFTP

Edited December 14, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[nick sussex]

thanks for that post nick s i think thers always a possibility and i do think with that nice block to our northeast anything is possible.

i think once the vortex settles in its resting place i do think a change will come biut only if it locates in a ideal place.

is the vortex relocation easy to model or does anyone have enough input to explain the most likely area?

is greenland a possible place because of lack of heights there ?

Yes it is a bit of a lottery when you get a split PV and so need some luck.

With that Aleutian ridge back its beginning to seem like Groundhog Day so we can just hope that this time we end up with a better outcome.

[WhiteFox]

I don't agree with some that we need to get rid of the block to our NE, What would be ok if we lost the Scandi block is if we saw a trough drop down into Scandi and slowly sink with the block then trying to arc back west in the arctic from Siberia. We don't want the trough from the Atlantic to march ever eastwards and push the block ESE as it is not conducive to reload but will signify the PV settling to our NW......and I think that is the lesser option ahead.

BFTP

I agree with that. We've seen spells over the years where this has happened: December 1996 springs to mind, although the Russian high wasn't massive, we did see a trough drop into Scandinavia and pressure building from the East over the top.

[MR EXTREMES]

And conversely that cold/ super freeze for next few weeks nailed on etc. Its biting both ways, great model watching and fascinating. There is something boom going to happen this winter, the 06z and the wall of cold refusing to budge to our NE is very impressive. IMO with the massive LP we have over the Atlantic right now and its following little friends, if they can't bust it then IMO there is a definite sign that we have an atmospheric set up that is conducive to periods of massive northern blocking. I'm convinced we'll egt a hit, the secret will be to identify when.

BFTP

i do feel this winter so far is showing a remarkable similarity to 08/09 when jan feb was first time,

in a fair few years we see snow settled for more than 24hrs here on the southcoast,

and that was exciting enough!.

but what followed the next winter was really something id not seen since the 80s.

but those two back to back snowy winters were during and after a 800day spotless sun since 09/10 its increased not huge amounts but enough i think to shift slightly away from the cold of them two winters,

and through last winter until october this year there was a much bigger increase in suns output,

although still below average will this lower output or is this lower solar output going to help this winter!!!!

well certainly got some nice arctic blocks,

plus southerly tracking jet,

and early snowfall which of coarse often helps with higher heights,

then theres the vortex which is not acting as your typical powerfull greenland based vortex,

so theres lots in favour its just a waiting game!!!

and the models although have the data input,

perhaps they find it hard to factor vortex location warming events plus vortex engery floating around,

and i strongly believe that even with all this data the basic area of modelling is only the tip of the iceberg,

thats why now were seeing the chino,s and GPS nick sussex steve i like a ramp murr ect ect all putting in extra bits and bobs in which make model watching so emotional exciting and depressing at times.

[Methuselah]

exacly thats why people shouldnt come out with comments like " no sight of cold for the next month"

Why ever not, Chess? It may not be what we want to see but, if it's true, why deny it? It won't alter the outcome!

[Spurry]

The current GFS output is very frustrating , the major HP Cold weather is only a few hundred miles away across in Scandinavia, yet it doesn'ts eem to have the power to push east and hold back the dreadful LP's...what makes it frsutrating is my best friend lives in Sweden and thay have been and will be locked in the freezer for the forseeable future...I don't really know much about PV's and strats , so i only look at the models , but hopefully someone will be able to give me some good news soon

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The current GFS output is very frustrating , the major HP Cold weather is only a few hundred miles away across in Scandinavia, yet it doesn'ts eem to have the power to push east and hold back the dreadful LP's...what makes it frsutrating is my best friend lives in Sweden and thay have been and will be locked in the freezer for the forseeable future...I don't really know much about PV's and strats , so i only look at the models , but hopefully someone will be able to give me some good news soon

Its doing a very fine job for Scandinavia......yes it is strong enough, it ain't budging. Very early days, very early days. Lest folk forget, Jan and Feb are generally colder months than Dec [and Dec 10 are not common events], thus far Dec has been pretty cold....its a good start with 80% of winter ahead of us...

BFTP

Edited December 14, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Adam lufc]

I completely disagree that dec 10' was a rare event. It was simply just that we had the right Synoptics in the right place. The same could and can quite easily happen again!

[nick sussex]

I've done a quick paintjob on the ECM 96hrs to show why events within 120hrs can make a difference down the road!

Red circle shortwave

Orange circle nuisance shortwave

Black arrow ridge backing west

If you look at the outputs they all differ with what they do with the shortwave heading se, preferably you want this as west as possible and clearing into the Continent as a clean feature, as this happens the ridge can extend west, we have a nuisance shortwave to the nw this phases with the low to the west.

The best scenario is that the models either get rid of the nuisance( unlikely) or weaken this significantly( a chance).

If the ridge to the ne is allowed further west this will impart forcing on the low to the west which will push this further south and help tilt this more negatively.

This is really adding more insurance, this is certainly something to keep an eye on as the output comes out.

The start point in this respect then has a more solid foundation,of course we can still get to a decent outcome without these upgrades I mentioned but it would make things a touch easier.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I completely disagree that dec 10' was a rare event. It was simply just that we had the right Synoptics in the right place. The same could and can quite easily happen again!

I thought Dec 10 was coldest in 100 years - in my book that is rare to be honest

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I completely disagree that dec 10' was a rare event. It was simply just that we had the right Synoptics in the right place. The same could and can quite easily happen again!

Before you do disagree check back for how many sub 0c CET decembers there's been, then disagree as much as you want.

BFTP

[mcweather]

I completely disagree that dec 10' was a rare event. It was simply just that we had the right Synoptics in the right place. The same could and can quite easily happen again!

I'm sorry Adam but that Dec 2010 was a once in a hundred year event the previous December with such depth of prolonged cold and snowfall was 1890. Indeed in my own back yard Dec 2010 was actually colder than 1890 making it even rarer.

Edited December 14, 2012 by Osbourne One-Nil
Whilst I agree, it does come across as a bit sharp!

[MR EXTREMES]

I completely disagree that dec 10' was a rare event. It was simply just that we had the right Synoptics in the right place. The same could and can quite easily happen again!

rare compaired to 90s or 2000s but 80s was very much a run.

[Summer Sun]

Peter Gibbs on BBC 1 has just said the weather this weekend (westerly dominated) is likely to last into next week and maybe even lasting to Christmas a big call that from Peter