Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -18z 17/12/12

[Gowon]

Snow for the SE on Sunday now

[Buriedundersnow]

nice to see more upgrades on this run and have to say from that run and the fact there is still more room for upgrades it isnt totally impossible that we will be left with a scandi high for christmas

[Summer Sun]

A chance of snow in the north and east at the weekend with further flooding problems in the south west possibly according to GFS tonight

[Matty M]

For the Atlantic low to decide to go under the block and provide an easterly beyond T144hrs, would be one of the biggest model turn arounds in history, so let's not get carried away with ourselves here!

GFS could be on a wild one, UKM looks less good at just T60hrs comparing like for like with Russian HP and heights lower to our north,

[Geordiesnow]

This Russian HP really doesn't want to go anywhere does it!!

Is it an Russian HP though? In my eyes, the models want to split the Russian high into two, one heading off into China and the other heading into Scandi, that looks like a Scandi high too me on the GFS charts, shift the pattern 100 miles further westwards and there you go, you got a classic(if short lived) easterly set up via a Scandi high.

I still think any easterly set up that may develop will be fleeting though but the models have also been hinting any Iberian high may not last long and could be replaced by lower heights into the medium term.

Its one of those where instead you watch every model run at 144 hours for a cold shot to come off, one may develop at short notice. Its a touch and go situation if albeit the mild air is still the firm favorite to win out.

[Gowon]

UPGRADES!! The high is BACKING West!!

[Iceaxecrampon]

Classic battleground for the North UK.....

Ian

[Buriedundersnow]

is that a try at an undercut for christmas eve move that scandi high a little further north and it could be a happy christmas for all

[pipsta]

Pipsta, have a look through the Technical thread the failed easterly has been on the Netweather CSI operating table.

More intrigue on this run from GFS, that bleeding high continues to throw out teasing pulses of cold air, to use another football analogy it has the 492-528 dam Ball, but is very fussy about who gets to play with it. Fortunately for those further North on this run a more solid looking chance of some decent uppers this time round.

May thanks lorenzo i'll go take a look see

[Matty M]

The difference between the GFS and UKM @ 96hrs this evening is almost laughable.

[Continental Climate]

UKMO is poor http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2012121812/UN120-21.GIF?18-17!! I believe we should be done with this pattern and move onto the next one folks

[Lampostwatcher]

Gfs Scandinavian high anyone

[EML Network]

Lol, OMG just make up your mind models, now energy going se!

This is just getting cruel , enough models deliver the cold air, you owe it to this thread!

I agree it is cruel, and it's about as worse case scenario as it can get if you ask me, I just wish that damn High would bugger off , the way I see it, we're going to so close to the cold air that we could smell it, but it's going to be just out of touching distance , anyone fancy building a boat and spending Xmas in the north sea ?

[MKN]

By Xmas eve we have positive 850s with the precip charts suggesting snow. I know its not all about 850s but im not convinced. Surely freezing rain at best

[Matty M]

UKMO is poor http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?18-17!! I believe we should be done with this pattern and move onto the next one folks

LOL The weather doesn't listen to anybody, you or the NWP.

[chionomaniac]

I'll call the GFS 12Z the Cohen climatology run!

[Buriedundersnow]

we might get a snowy christmas for all if this is a new trend and we can get upgrades on the way there yeehaaa!

[Weathizard]

GFS is unbelievable

[Pixel]

Blimey.. the differences between the o6z and the 12z on the 24th Dec are bizarre..

I wander what it'll come up with on the next run

[The Eagle]

UKMO having none of it.

[Frosty.]

It's amazing the level of uncertainty at such a short range, the gfs 12z is really teasing us again this afternoon, it's a cliffhanger. Metoffice viewing the gfs 12z in disbelief, please let the ukmo 12z be a good un.

[Craigers]

12z

6z

what a BIG difference on these GFS runs!

NICELY!

[Matty M]

Expect the GFS 12z OP to be quite a significant outlier here.

[Continental Climate]

It's amazing the level of uncertainty at such a short range, the gfs 12z is really teasing us again this afternoon, it's a cliffhanger. Metoffice viewing the gfs 12z in disbelief, please let the ukmo 12z be a good un.

Nope mate its pap!! http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2012121812/UN144-21.GIF?18-17!!!

[Harsh Climate]

Great GFS 12z run so far, but go's against the UKMO and earlier ECM so I'm having none of it