Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -18z 17/12/12

[mulzy]

Eh?

Let me get this right, your writing off jan on the here say of the Meto (thats basically what it is) and because all 'LRF' models say no to cold?? The same Meto and models that recently all predicted an easterly at the same time so all singing from the same hymm sheet that NEVER materialised. On the same models that currently cant decide whats going to happen after +144 Let alone next month??

You choose to ingore the fact that we currently have a displaced PV and will currently continue to see a displced PV right upto the 'Forcast Warmng' I think that thats a prettty rare event, so considering this dont you think that the Meto (who are always right yes?) and ALL models are going to strugle.

Yes, the Met Office may have flip-flopped their medium range forecasts recently, but that doesn't mean their forecasts should be dismissed. Stating the obvious, but these guys are the gold standard for forecasting the weather here in the UK. The fact they are predicitng average to mild temperatures in the medium term for the South should be a worry for those who want cold.

Edited December 18, 2012 by mulzy

[nick sussex]

What we have is a delicate evolution and one that could bring more widespread snow within as early as 96hrs or at least a cold/mild collision over us so I wouldn't be too hung up on this mornings runs. 12z GME gives some hope. We need the lp to the west to become squeezed and elongated west east between hp to the north and the south. This is still a scenario on the models worth watching

That disagrees as early as T 48hrs with the NAE which develops that shortwave on the southern flank of the main trough.

The NAE also shows some snow probably for higher elevations in the north.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201212181200&VAR=prty&HH=48&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=

[legritter]

I will take the met office and other modells predicted forecast for about the next 10 days but we all know and even the professionals that what is past that, can be totally different to what is currently forecast .we could have a very cold zonal which would deliver .iv always said i think just a 14 day forecast should be given plus updates every Two days .just look at GFS at say 168/192 hrs on many of its runs 20MB pressure different in 6 hrs ,polar vortex completely in a different location in 6 hrs ,predictions of next 10/15days changing in many chat rooms twice per day .the only thing i will give in modern computing etc ,the 144 hr range as certainly improved and its great we have all this information available for our hobby .and its great to be a part of an inteligent forum with many knowlegable posters . back in the 70s and 80s all i had and many like me was 5/6 day faxes i used to pay for from weather centre plus a late night look at the weather on radio 4 ,and the good old shipping forecast .oh well GFS rolling out now and ECM starting up its engines soon . one guarantee plenty of action to come across uk ,i think about every thing thrown in ,im looking foreward to ECM at 192 onwards tonight could be a few surprises ,well lets hope .cheers .

[Frosty.]

Ignorance used to be bliss before we had access to the charts we can all look at today, we were in the hands of the experts and would hang on their every word for things like turning colder with snow. Now we can look into the models crystal ball and see for ourselves how good or bad it is, anyway, it's still a very complex set up with undercut still likely for the north at least but heavy persistent rain is also heading in tomorrow with that flooding risk increasing again.

[Matty M]

I note that the HP to the northeast is further west here on this run.

However conversely the Azores Hp appears slightly further amplified to the southwest.

[Jimmyh]

I must admit it is a fairly bold statement posting that winter is over just because of the LRF from Met has changed. I believe strongly that have no idea as to what is going to happen and have covbered themselves for the middle of the grain by sying that average to mild. Yes in the south this has the propensity to be correct however i will stick my neck out and say this FI is fluctuating so much due to the displaced PV that we really dont know what is store for the whole of January or onwards.

Just think how perilously close we were and still are to the cold. This is a winter like no other

[MKN]

Better run quite early on for Scottish prospects at least. If nothing else the mountains along with a few others in Scotland could see massive snowfall totals if things fall into place along the lines of the 12z

[Methuselah]

Ignorance used to be bliss before we had access to the charts we can all look at today, we were in the hands of the experts and would hang on their every word for things like turning colder with snow. Now we can look into the models crystal ball and see for ourselves how good or bad it is, anyway, it's still a very complex set up with undercut still likely for the north at least but heavy persistent rain is also heading in tomorrow with that flooding risk increasing again.

That is indeed part of our problem: we have charts at our disposal that go far beyond anyone's ability to make detailed forecasts...We were all led up the garden path by the recent 'Beast'...

[Matty M]

Easterly flow into Scotland

[LomondSnowstorm]

Better looking easterly on this run, uppers profile for the GFS is still about 2-4C lower than on the NAE up to +48 though so those of us in eastern Scotland hoping for some low ground snowfall will be hoping that it is the NAE which is closer to the mark in that regard.

[Matty M]

The battle commences. Battleground Britain!

[Matty M]

Push that 100-200miles further south and you have quite a situation.

And whose to say the NWP is capable of providing such a move.

Interest is still high here.

[nick sussex]

The GFS 12hrs maintains some interest for northern areas of the UK, a large temperature differential across the UK and at the boundary some heavy rain or snow.

The mini drama looks like continuing!

Deep cold to the ne within touching distance, but its like pulling teeth to get enough trough disruption to occur.

Edited December 18, 2012 by nick sussex

[Matty M]

GFS 12z is a corker for those who still believe.

Folks we could be in for a reboot of this amazing rollercoaster, the next few days could be incredible.

[LomondSnowstorm]

This is why many of us haven't given up on the easterly:

[The Eagle]

I see yellow just off Norway!

[Matty M]

The GFS 12hrs maintains some interest for northern areas of the UK, a large temperature differential across the UK and at the boundary some heavy rain or snow.

The mini drama looks like continuing!

This Russian HP really doesn't want to go anywhere does it!!

[Winter Monsoon]

we've had a displaced Vortex for the last few weeks and I'm not writing off anything, a 30% chance of a cold spell in January is realistic not hopecasting. You refer to all the teleconnections being favourable as if this guarantees us cold, it doesn't but it does increase our chances. Some need to take a more realistic approach to viewing the output and not let their cold prejudices cloud their judgement.

Im sorry Where in my post did i say that??

Realisticly how can you take anything that any model is churning out post 144 and sooner? We have and probably will see changes, some minor and some major which go on in the grand scheme of things to have an impact upto and past +384(January)

And im sorry and i mean no disrespect by this but unless the meto have a crystal ball that allows them to see into the future, i fail to see how they can also reliably and accuratly predict whats going to happen after christmas day. As the models are varying so much.

[Isolated Frost]

Thatcher would have loved this, a real north-south divide.

...anyway, GFS op and ECM op both looking very similar up until D4/D5- so increasing support for the easterly scenario over Scotland. The shortwave core o/ England from D3 onwards is yet to be known, but with some southward adjustments over the next few days, SE Scotland and NE England can join in the (wintry) fun.

Snow and sleet from Friday to Sunday in the far north and north-east of Scotland, mainly snow on high ground (Highlands, Borders at times), this could spread into the Cheviots, North Pennines and inland SE Scotland/NE England on Saturday.

[nick sussex]

This Russian HP really doesn't want to go anywhere does it!!

Lol, OMG just make up your mind models, now energy going se!

This is just getting cruel , enough models deliver the cold air, you owe it to this thread!

[The Eagle]

Here we go folks! Incoming, probably

[pipsta]

After the recent failed "beast from the east" and over almost overnight turn around from the models to the "pest from the west" why does nobody go back and look for the reason the models decided to change so quickly. All you guys talk about is whats going to happen i know its a "forecast" but surely by discussing why the models got it wrong will help us all spot us when this might happend next time, might even help reduce the pain of when it does all go wrong at the last minute.

[skyblusam]

After the recent failed "beast from the east" and over almost overnight turn around from the models to the "pest from the west" why does nobody go back and look for the reason the models decided to change so quickly. All you guys talk about is whats going to happen i know its a "forecast" but surely by discussing why the models got it wrong will help us all spot us when this might happend next time, might even help reduce the pain of when it does all go wrong at the last minute.

im sure i seen on here that it was to do with shortwaves

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think a good analogy to sum up the last few weeks in the models is to equate it to a football match where one side dominates has loads of chances to score plays lovely football but can't score and the other team bundles in a messy goal right at the end.

Alternatively its like having some five star ingredients and making a crap dinner!

Southerly tracking jet

Arctic high

Yes.....the seasoning was wrong, no salt or pepper and it becomes blandBFTP

Russian high

Displaced PV

And the sum total really hasn't added up to much for the majority of the UK, so we can see even though you might have an overall NH pattern that gives chances for cold into the UK, the finer detail is always the decider.

[lorenzo]

Pipsta, have a look through the Technical thread the failed easterly has been on the Netweather CSI operating table.

More intrigue on this run from GFS, that bleeding high continues to throw out teasing pulses of cold air, to use another football analogy it has the 492-528 dam Ball, but is very fussy about who gets to play with it. Fortunately for those further North on this run a more solid looking chance of some decent uppers this time round.