The Midlands Regional Winter Discussion

[Staffordshire]

Also look at the warnings for sunday it has the west midlands in a snow warning

[mr benn]

Sky now cleared in redditch - looks like thats it for a while here ?

[Bolton67]

Dew points looking fine for Monday. though they do rise in the North West of the region.

http://expert-images...011400_1206.gif

http://expert-images...011403_1206.gif

Upper air temps..for sunday

http://expert-images...011321_1206.gif

So, apart from the slight rise in Dew points in the far North West of the region, things looking good.

[we_want_snow]

Nice to see some settled snow from Shrewsbury... Even if it is just looking at the wrekin, a nice white covering it seems!

Sunday night looking good for alot of people, Monday day for those further East at the moment, us far West Midlanders can keep hoping though! Surely we won't miss like February again!

[weatherguy]

How much are we looking at then, about 5-10cm is my reckoning for this area following the monday/tuesday event?

-Daventry

[Gord]

Gord, where is it showing sleet for? meto app just updated on my phone and going for Heavy snow from 3pm -9pm then back to light.

For my postcode. I know you shouldn't go by postcode forecasts but obviously there is a chance there. I still think it'll be ok though. It's just a niggle.

Anyway, even then, I've seen great snow events in the past DESPITE the mild sectors that pass through. 4th Feb 2012 for example did have a mild sector but was only drizzle so didn't do any harm. When I lived in Ohio, we got mild sectored a lot but still ended up with good snow amounts.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

meto suggests now, snow on monday, heavy at times, upgrade from yesterdays rain, sleet and snow for west midlands

[Bolton67]

How much are we looking at then, about 5-10cm is my reckoning for this area following the monday/tuesday event?

-Daventry

10cm + for the higher areas of Northants. Daventry area, Long buckby etc.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hi Mate,

I've moved from Wildwood as far as... Radford Bank, so lost about 35m of altitude.

Forget the ECM for the short term stuff, now it's down to NAE, FAX and lamppost watching.

Surely the snow shield can't win out again here.

Radford bank, walk up that way to town everyday, dont think as much as 35m, but is lower yes

[The Wolf]

The BBC forecast earlier showed snow over all of the Midlands on Sunday night and then another heavier band

coming in on Monday.

[weatherguy]

10cm + for the higher areas of Northants. Daventry area, Long buckby etc.

Wow, looks like I may have underestimated this

[Bolton67]

Wow, looks like I may have underestimated this

West Northants has got a bit more elevation than the rest of the county, Daventry (not always) seems to get a bit more snowfall than Northampton.

[Bolton67]

Weatherguy, this is from metcheck

NN2

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=nn2&day=2

NN11

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=nn11&day=2

[Macey]

Looks like Northants will get a decent amount of snow this year, seeing as we usually seem to be the unlucky ones!

[Snowy Easterlies]

are we sure this is going to be snow, if this passes through in the middle of the day when its 2c according to the met office

or will evaporative cooling play a part as well as other factors ?

Edited January 12, 2013 by Snowy Easterlies

[kev238]

Yes Northampton will prob do even better that Nottingham, Leicester and derby as i think it will intensify as it heads south east as there clearly is a circulation forming later in the day.

It does look like two bands then; a first band tomorrow night and a second from around lunchtime. Personally I am a bit suspicious of the first band, as some of the models don't make as much of it as the nae but confident in the second band.

West midlanders and those on the borders between wales and England; really really difficult to pin point. Could come down to local elevation and precipitation intensity

[weatherguy]

West Northants has got a bit more elevation than the rest of the county, Daventry (not always) seems to get a bit more snowfall than Northampton.

Yeah, I travel to Rugby very often and whenever there's snowfall I always seem to notice a big difference in snow depths...seems quite bizarre really that such a short distance can equate to such great differences!

And thanks for the link As a general rule about 1mm of ppn is roughly 1cm of snow, right?

are we sure this is going to be snow, if this passes through in the middle of the day when its 2c according to the met office

or will evaporative cooling play a part as well as other factors ?

It's a cert to be snow, the conditions on the ground don't really matter apart from if you're worrying about snow melt. It's the upper air conditions which determine whether it falls as snow or not, and they are very favourable (usually <-5C is required for the 850 temps for snow to fall, can be a bit warmer at times but then you rely on other factors and it's more of a fine line)

Edited January 12, 2013 by weatherguy

[Bolton67]

Yeah, I travel to Rugby very often and whenever there's snowfall I always seem to notice a big difference in snow depths...seems quite bizarre really that such a short distance can equate to such great differences!

And thanks for the link As a general rule about 1mm of ppn is roughly 1cm of snow, right?

It's a cert to be snow, the conditions on the ground don't really matter apart from if you're worrying about snow melt. It's the upper air conditions which determine whether it falls as snow or not, and they are very favourable (usually <-5C is required for the 850 temps for snow to fall, can be a bit warmer at times but then you rely on other factors and it's more of a fine line)

just done a simple maths and i should have 14cm NOT.

[Snowy Easterlies]

ok thanks i'd prefer it snow after about 4pm less chance it will melt, i only live about 40m asl

[NorthantsSnow]

Finally, some snow in the forecast! To celebrate, I have come out of my long spring/summer/autumn hibernation. In even better news, as luck would have it I'm off work Mon and Tues so I can follow this one every step of the way. Hope it's not a disappointment, but I like what I'm seeing so far.

[Bolton67]

Finally, some snow in the forecast! To celebrate, I have come out of my long spring/summer/autumn hibernation. In even better news, as luck would have it I'm off work Mon and Tues so I can follow this one every step of the way. Hope it's not a disappointment, but I like what I'm seeing so far.

Good to see you back.

[Chess01]

How does it look for north staffs

[I remember Atlantic 252]

How does it look for north staffs

Good I would say, higher elevation as well, think of it as like the build up to 04 Feb 2012, I saw 9cms and Shrewsbury nothing, were wondering then exactly as we are wondering now

[Chess01]

Good I would say, higher elevation as well, think of it as like the build up to 04 Feb 2012, I saw 9cms and Shrewsbury nothing, were wondering then exactly as we are wondering now

yes that as true 4th of feb was ace . Wasnt expecting the amount that come down because the front stalled right over us . Im at 160 asl so should be okay just worried that im to far west

[andy_leics22]

How does it look for north staffs

Absolutely dreadful, heavy rain followed by a heatwave on Tuesday.

Just kidding Looks decent for North Staffs I think, i've kept quiet about this possible snow event on Monday because I know the models can take away snow events as quickly as they introduce them! However Monday does look more and more likely to be an interesting day for snow lovers.

I've got work on Monday and I cycle around to different houses in Leicester as a carer, so i'm a litttle wary about how safe it will be if it does snow 5cm+ like it looks like it could! But to be honest i'd love it to snow quite a lot even if it makes my cycle around work more dangerous, that's how much I love snow I'm mad.