Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12

[Jason M]

possible but consider the options. without solar input, you wont get the temps up that far - will just be grey and mild. with cloud breaks that allow solar input, you will get frost and possibly fog at night so the temps will have too far to climb during a short daytime period to reach 15c.

Agreed, T2m temps might even be below average after the first couple of days if the high sits right on top of us. Aberdeenshire would be best bet for warmth with a Foehn effect. Mind you, the GFS 18Z on Thursday would have seen 15C breached widely IMO as it was the most perfect mild set up possible. Sort of Jan 87 in reverse :-)

Jason

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

possible but consider the options. without solar input, you wont get the temps up that far - will just be grey and mild. with cloud breaks that allow solar input, you will get frost and possibly fog at night so the temps will have too far to climb during a short daytime period to reach 15c.

I do agree with you there, but if you take the foehn effect into account, places East of the Peak District and Pennines, and also the Grampians could easily see 15c if the charts at the moment came off.

[UV-RAY]

For it to be one of the mildest winters we'd have to have a VERY mild final two months of winter, I'd say if you were going on current output(without the SSW effects) its still only average and it certainly won't be THAT warm even in the milder period(2-8th) jan as it looks at the moment. Considering the CET for december has been about average.

Negativity on here by some amazes me, given the chances being shown at the moment I think we are going to see a very exciting period of model watching, looking at the ENS there is definitely a cooling trend after 240hrs (when we should begin to see the effects of the SSW), at this point that is a good sign, we are not going to see amazing charts at the moment granted, but we still have 2 months, give it time.

Don't worry, be happy, its only the weather after all it will do what it wants when it wants!

People are only commenting on what the models are showing, I feel within the next 5 days we should start too see a growing signal for cold developing, if not any talk of cold mid January should be put on ice ( pardon the pun ).

[Frosty.]

possible but consider the options. without solar input, you wont get the temps up that far - will just be grey and mild. with cloud breaks that allow solar input, you will get frost and possibly fog at night so the temps will have too far to climb during a short daytime period to reach 15c.

There is no possible about it, the ecm 144 would produce 14-16c, we had 15c on christmas day last year, so 15c is easily possible with such a draw of mild swly winds, with power to add the following week.

[IDO]

After the cold start to December who would have thought that we would be close to an average CET. In fact after yesterday we are spot on the average:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

With 8-10c forecast for today and tomorrow we should see a positive anomaly on the CET. Though a bit higher IMBY.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Hard not to reply to a post like this, come on, were not seeing one of the mildest winters ever and it doesn't look like it will be the "mildest ever" in the next two months. Everyone forgets that this month was nearly 4c below average until mid month, however the mild weather since then has brought this up to just slightly below average and it will probably end up an average month. Therefore, after an average to slight below average month, you can't say that this could be the mildest winter ever. January looks like starting off mild still but at least it will be drier. And your temps of 15c and higher, looks unlikely aswell as it looks like it will be mainly overcast but some places east of higher ground may see some cloud breaks to allow temperatures to be higher but for most, it will be a cloudy, mild but dry affair. After that well the SSW looks like occuring bringing the potential for a sustained period of cold. Quotes like "the mildest winter ever" are not correct and have no evidence but it does look like December will finish average with January a mild start but potentially a cold end.

Well at the moment, i Haven't even gone near my coat-hanger its been that mild ! I hope for a change soon, otherwise any Easterly will be such a waste as the days are beginning to lengthen, and solar output is increasing.

[bradymk]

There is no possible about it, the ecm 144 would produce 14-16c, we had 15c on christmas day last year, so 15c is easily possible with such a draw of mild swly winds, with power to add the following week.

Not necessarily Frosty, all down to location here, the majority of the UK will be very cloudy under that but dry and mild with temps of 8-12c most likely. However anywhere east of high ground may see higher temperatures as cloud breaks are more likely here but even then this makes them more likely to experience mist/fog. The ECM was also an outlier.

Well at the moment, i Haven't even gone near my coat-hanger its been that mild ! I hope for a change soon, otherwise any Easterly will be such a waste as the days are beginning to lengthen, and solar output is increasing.

Were you not here for the beginning of December? Anyway, if we can propogation of negative zonal winds following the SSW, hopefully you will be grabbing your coat a heck of a lot more

Edited December 30, 2012 by bradythemole

[bluearmy]

There is no possible about it, the ecm 144 would produce 14-16c, we had 15c on christmas day last year, so 15c is easily possible with such a draw of mild swly winds, with power to add the following week.

fair point re the fohn effect but still not convinced you'll see those returns. admittedly london in slightly lower uppers and slacker flow with temps on a few members breaking 10c. as ever, we'll see

[Zerouali lives]

Classic fohn effect situation later this week that could produce record temperatures for the Aberdeen area, maybe 16C with any cloud breaks.

[bluearmy]

Well at the moment, i Haven't even gone near my coat-hanger its been that mild ! I hope for a change soon, otherwise any Easterly will be such a waste as the days are beginning to lengthen, and solar output is increasing.

wrong thread but easterlies are the best flow for cold in feb as the days lengthen with their lower dp's. (as long as europe isnt basking in heat!)

[Frosty.]

Not necessarily Frosty, all down to location here, the majority of the UK will be very cloudy under that but dry and mild with temps of 8-12c most likely. However anywhere east of high ground may see higher temperatures as cloud breaks are more likely here but even then this makes them more likely to experience mist/fog. The ECM was also an outlier.

The point I was making was we had 15c, almost 16c on christmas day 2011, the ecm shows an equally mild set up so some areas would top 15c easily with that chart. I'm looking forward to seeing colder weather beyond mid month, really can't see anything other than average and mostly mild to very mild in the next couple of weeks.

this ecm chart screams fohn effect, I imagine the scottish mountains will be snow free by next weekend or soon after.

Edited December 30, 2012 by Frosty039

[Timmytour]

For it to be one of the mildest winters we'd have to have a VERY mild final two months of winter, I'd say if you were going on current output(without the SSW effects) its still only average and it certainly won't be THAT warm even in the milder period(2-8th) jan as it looks at the moment. Considering the CET for december has been about average.

"one of the mildest winters" is too strong, "one of the mildest winter months" might not be too far off the mark.

As I posted before Christmas..

Its too early to talk about "winter being over" with still two months more to run

But does that mean it's too early to talk about Spring?

A lot of hopes are hanging on the SSW. To my mind this provides absolutely no guarantees but only the potential of opportunities. But those potential opportunities of cold shots will also provide areas of mild air pouring north. And with the way things have gone this winter, it would not surprise me if we end up caught up in those flows north for much of the rest of winter

[Barmada Casten]

I think the general concencus is that this is going to be pretty much a winter without any significant cold/snowy spells. Seems to be the growing trend.

Some great, in-depth posts on here that explain that very well. Thanks. BC.

[Timmytour]

Classic fohn effect situation later this week that could produce record temperatures for the Aberdeen area, maybe 16C with any cloud breaks.

And, in contrast to the pessimism of my previous post, it's probably worth remembering that much of the UK registered temps around 14C during a certain January 1947

How far off a Bartlett was this chart?

Edited December 30, 2012 by Timmytour

[Gavin Hannah]

Given up on this winter.... Any SSW will have a lag effect on our weather and that's if it affects it at all. Any HP looks to be of a Euro nature and will only last at best, up to a week before the Atlantic moves back in.

Wash, rinse, repeat cycle is fully on atm.

[cornish snow]

my first post after many months of lurking. hope the high pressure verifies as i dont think anybody down here can take any more rain.

[Mr Frost]

I am beginning to get used to the usual " winter is over " posts on here throughout the past 10 days...

It shows no sign of dying out I see! Amazing.

Nothing to get excited about at present or for the next 10 days I imagine. I would advise a wee break from chart viewing if you are a coldie.

Hopefully the SSW delivers for our tiny island during January, I am sure most will get a wintry spell at some point during the next 10 weeks. Only a matter of time I would have thought.

Until then relax, be patient and adopt a positive attitude. It stops you from making hasty remarks.

Edited December 30, 2012 by Mr Frost

[Frosty.]

I promise this is the last time I will post this chart, as a coldie, it's a chart which will induce nightmares. I am concerned that we have had a generally rather cold december but with little or no snow to show for it, we have also had one of the wettest months on record with widespread flooding, at least the weather looks like changing the balance with higher pressure for the south after midweek but probably remaining lower to the north so a north/south split is likely, very mild swly winds are on the way, at least it will lower the heating bills!

[snowking]

I think the general concencus is that this is going to be pretty much a winter without any significant cold/snowy spells. Seems to be the growing trend.

Some great, in-depth posts on here that explain that very well. Thanks. BC.

Would you perhaps like to point us towards a few of these mystery posts which suggest this? Or are you just happy to continue on a wind up...

Anyway. Bias corrected GEFS MJO forecast beginning to look a lot more reminiscent of UKMO output

GFS:

UKMO:

ECMWF:

The more recent trend has been to lower the amplitude for phases 5/6, which is certainly not terrible news, and may allow external forcing to drive the pattern until we reach phase 7 (probably around mid month), though with the GWO moving into phase 4 the MJO signal may become more amplified than presently suggested.

MJO and Stratosphere still in pretty good harmony in the mean time towards mid month, I think its probably fairly fruitless looking for too much in the way of cold weather before then, though dependant on where the HP ends up settling (and this is by no means nailed on just yet) we could end up with some overnight frosts at least. Much more seasonal.

SK

[Mr Frost]

Would you perhaps like to point us towards a few of these mystery posts which suggest this? Or are you just happy to continue on a wind up...

Anyway. Bias corrected GEFS MJO forecast beginning to look a lot more reminiscent of UKMO output

GFS:

UKMO:

ECMWF:

The more recent trend has been to lower the amplitude for phases 5/6, which is certainly not terrible news, and may allow external forcing to drive the pattern until we reach phase 7 (probably around mid month), though with the GWO moving into phase 4 the MJO signal may become more amplified than presently suggested.

MJO and Stratosphere still in pretty good harmony in the mean time towards mid month, I think its probably fairly fruitless looking for too much in the way of cold weather before then, though dependant on where the HP ends up settling (and this is by no means nailed on just yet) we could end up with some overnight frosts at least. Much more seasonal.

SK

Great post SK.

I have highlighted and underlined something that EVERYONE should take on board. I get the feeling certain folk are expecting blizzards within the next week going by the buzz killington posts in here.

Edited December 30, 2012 by Mr Frost

[Mark Parsons]

I think the general concencus is that this is going to be pretty much a winter without any significant cold/snowy spells. Seems to be the growing trend.

Some great, in-depth posts on here that explain that very well. Thanks. BC.

Well surely the trend has been and still is one of extremes over the last 6 - 8 months and probably will continue that way?

[Mark Parsons]

I promise this is the last time I will post this chart, as a coldie, it's a chart which will induce nightmares. I am concerned that we have had a generally rather cold december but with little or no snow to show for it, we have also had one of the wettest months on record with widespread flooding, at least the weather looks like changing the balance with higher pressure for the south after midweek but probably remaining lower to the north so a north/south split is likely, very mild swly winds are on the way, at least it will lower the heating bills!

Yes, but look at all that cold building up around us, possibilities to tap in to are good.

[nick sussex]

I do agree with you there, but if you take the foehn effect into account, places East of the Peak District and Pennines, and also the Grampians could easily see 15c if the charts at the moment came off.

The foehn effect here produced an amazing 25c just before Xmas, unbelievable!

I think you're right re a possible 15c reading it really depends where the high sets up, theres a vast difference at this time of year if you get a s/se or sw flow round the high.

[TEITS]

I hope for a change soon, otherwise any Easterly will be such a waste as the days are beginning to lengthen, and solar output is increasing.

This is often mentioned at this time of year.

The effects of the longer days, stronger sun doesn't really become noticeable until towards the latter part of Feb with regards to cold spells. A good example is Feb 1991 when I witnessed some amazing powder snowfall during that cold spell. I still remember vividly how the snow snaked across the roads due to being so dry.

if we were at the beginning of Feb with the current model output then I would agree with you. However as its Dec 30th we have plenty of winter left yet. The old saying of "As the days get longer the cold gets stronger" is very true.

[Frosty.]

The latest metoffice update pretty much sums up what the Ecm 00z op run shows, becoming milder than average with the driest, brightest weather for southern and southeastern uk and only small amounts of rain, the north and west rather more unsettled with some rain at times and less fine weather but generally mild or very mild, the further outlook continues to dangle that carrot with hopes of a marked change to cold weather after mid january, but before then it looks grim for coldies with mild nights as well as mild days so most areas becoming frost free. There are some signs of hope for later in january though.

Edited December 30, 2012 by Frosty039