Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12

[nick sussex]

The only thing that can drag me out of my grumpiness is if GEFS member 14 shows up this evening!

That shows a quick response to the SSW.

[Methuselah]

Come on 7... That's why we use the models, yes they take in Stratt warmings as they get into the reliable.

Aye PM, they must, even if it's indirectly; the data, on which the strat models base their predictions, must be included in the other models' computations, in some form or other?

[Polar Maritime]

Aye PM, they must, even if it's indirectly; the data, on which the strat models base their predictions, must be included in the other models' computations, in some form or other?

It would be rather stupid of them not to include such an important mechanism like the Stratt, amongst other signals ... I would think.

We can see the effect of the Stratt coming into play over the last few run's.

Edited December 30, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[bluearmy]

please can we understand that the gfs model goes all the way from the ground to the top of the strat. its one global model. when you select the frame for day 8, you can look at the entire atmosphere from T2 temps to 1hpa temps. the whole lot is one forecast of the entire movement of the atmosphere (from 1000hpa to 1hpa) from T0 when the starting data is fed in all the way to T384. nothing new is fed in once the run begins.

[lorenzo]

The only thing that can drag me out of my grumpiness is if GEFS member 14 shows up this evening!

That shows a quick response to the SSW.

Bosh ! after the Scandi block morphs into a 1070mb Greenland high a whole bowling ball of cold rolling towards us - quite an ensemble !

[Dampdorset82]

Hi Damp

Take at look at the BOM run as this illustrates what I was getting at. It's unlikely, but you never know.

Jason

My apologies, i thought you were referring to the GFS 06z. I can now see what you mean.

[bluearmy]

couple of comments on the GEFS:

1) its clear that our block over the next 10/14 days is going to feed some cold air into eastern europe. it looks like they will barely have a weeks respite from the cold. that obviously has implications for us if the flow becomes continental come mid month.

2) unlike early december, the gefs members are all showing a vortex that is 'unhappy'. split, displaced, stretched, disrupted. they are all showing. i assume the model will struggle to resolve the tropospheric impact of the warming and the varying output reflects that. what is the current trend is that there doesn't appear to be any barrier to the warming influencing the trop by mid jan. that could be just an initial wave response which will work through and then we have to wait some time for the larger effects to work down. however, given the weakness this season of the vortex, it might be ok to expect the effects to be sustained.

[Duane S.]

That's by a long way the most agreement I've seen in deep FI of a decent cooldown all winter. Especially considering the location.

[UV-RAY]

Isn't that what the models do anyway?

They are after all predicting the future possible weather based on future possible events.

Lol, I should have made myself clearer as in, would the models pick up on a SSW event which hasn't occurred yet. I was under the impression that none of them could pick up the event until it had actually occurred.

[Weathizard]

Ens show an astounding agreement (850 temp wise) at 384, not sure I've ever seen agreement like that so far out? Just the odd very cold member and no mild members, which on yesterdays ens is a big improvement as there were several fairly mild options. The mean also appears to have taken a dive, -2/3 about the mean now.

Something is definitely afoot I feel.

[Frosty.]

Mild lovers will be delighted by the Ecm 00z, very mild air pumping northeast across the uk later next week and especially next weekend, even beyond then looks mild with nothing remotely wintry showing by T+240 hours, so, the hunt for cold goes on and on....please don't think i'm being negative, it's just what the models are showing, simple as that.

If the models keep showing this, there will be a mass exodus of cold fans from here.

Edited December 30, 2012 by Frosty039

[Summer Sun]

A near dry set of ensembles from the 2nd to 8th for once makes a change!

Of course theirs always one exception and that goes to the Aberdeen ensemble but its nothing major

Enjoy a week of mild and DRY weather from the 2nd epically in the flood hit parts

Edited December 30, 2012 by Gavin.

[Jason M]

That's by a long way the most agreement I've seen in deep FI of a decent cooldown all winter. Especially considering the location.

Synopitcally though there are great differences still as is to be expected at that range. Normally i'd disregard most of the FI runs completely, but the building blocks are in the day 6-9 range and there is strong agreement around that time scale.

At least something good to discuss. We might even see a certain Mr Murr back in the thread soon.

Jason

[Frosty.]

There are no guarantees in weather.

The only guarantee is there will be no decent cold or snow in the next 240 to 300 hours, and probably longer, but there will be plenty of mild in that period, that is guaranteed.

Edited December 30, 2012 by Frosty039

[-uksnow-]

There are no guarantees in weather.

This may be one aswell,but that post is just silly. If you simply read my post correctly i said 'almost' guarentee'd. Judging by the fact its been modelled for well over a week and the GFS and ECM have it consistently forecast for this time frame i think my post was fairly therefore we can start to look for if there will be an immediate tropospheric response or a longer one.

[bluearmy]

Lol, I should have made myself clearer as in, would the models pick up on a SSW event which hasn't occurred yet. I was under the impression that none of them could pick up the event until it had actually occurred.

seven, did you miss my earlier comment? the warming occurs within the GFS global run (ground to 1hpa). the model will create the warming within its synthesis of the atmosphere and generate a reaction to it as per its programming. its all physics. you are, in effect saying, that if a gfs run develops a bartlett run, after run, how does it know what to do once the bartlett appears. its just modelling the atmosphere. ones and zeros. it doesnt think for itself. its just following the algorithms.

[UV-RAY]

This may be one aswell,but that post is just silly. If you simply read my post correctly i said 'almost' guarentee'd. Judging by the fact its been modelled for well over a week and the GFS and ECM have it consistently forecast for this time frame i think my post was fairly therefore we can start to look for if there will be an immediate tropospheric response or a longer one.

The GFS, UKMO and ECM can't model a SSW until the event has occurred.

[Bobby]

Ensemble means from NAEFS, GEFS, ECM and GEM at day 10. Good agreement from NAEFS, ECM and GEM but the GEFS has a slacker and more amplified pattern and is better for cold chances, the other 3 not so.

Edited December 30, 2012 by Bobby

[bluearmy]

The GFS, UKMO and ECM can't model a SSW until the event has occurred.

Edited December 30, 2012 by bluearmy

[UV-RAY]

seven, did you miss my earlier comment? the warming occurs within the GFS global run (ground to 1hpa). the model will create the warming within its synthesis of the atmosphere and generate a reaction to it as per its programming. its all physics. you are, in effect saying, that if a gfs run develops a bartlett run, after run, how does it know what to do once the bartlett appears. its just modelling the atmosphere. ones and zeros. it doesnt think for itself. its just following the algorithms.

Sorry BA, I missed that post and thanks for explaining just how they pick up this signal.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

As far as I can see at the moment, we could be seeing one of the mildest winters ever ! I mean the winds by next weekend and the next week could be coming all the way from near to the Cape Verde Islands and the Canaries! That would possibly deliver temps of 15c or even higher than that.

[Summer Sun]

Sorry but I couldn't resist this

[bluearmy]

As far as I can see at the moment, we could be seeing one of the mildest winters ever ! I mean the winds by next weekend and the next week could be coming all the way from near to the Cape Verde Islands and the Canaries! That would possibly deliver temps of 15c or even higher than that.

possible but consider the options. without solar input, you wont get the temps up that far - will just be grey and mild. with cloud breaks that allow solar input, you will get frost and possibly fog at night so the temps will have too far to climb during a short daytime period to reach 15c.

there is little evidence to support your initial statement. after a third, we are average. by mid jan, we will probably be a couple degrees above average for jan. that requires a very mild second half jan and feb to deliver your opening gambit.

Edited December 30, 2012 by bluearmy

[Weathizard]

As far as I can see at the moment, we could be seeing one of the mildest winters ever ! I mean the winds by next weekend and the next week could be coming all the way from near to the Cape Verde Islands and the Canaries! That would possibly deliver temps of 15c or even higher than that.

For it to be one of the mildest winters we'd have to have a VERY mild final two months of winter, I'd say if you were going on current output(without the SSW effects) its still only average and it certainly won't be THAT warm even in the milder period(2-8th) jan as it looks at the moment. Considering the CET for december has been about average.

Negativity on here by some amazes me, given the chances being shown at the moment I think we are going to see a very exciting period of model watching, looking at the ENS there is definitely a cooling trend after 240hrs (when we should begin to see the effects of the SSW), at this point that is a good sign, we are not going to see amazing charts at the moment granted, but we still have 2 months, give it time.

Don't worry, be happy, its only the weather after all it will do what it wants when it wants!

[bradymk]

As far as I can see at the moment, we could be seeing one of the mildest winters ever ! I mean the winds by next weekend and the next week could be coming all the way from near to the Cape Verde Islands and the Canaries! That would possibly deliver temps of 15c or even higher than that.

Hard not to reply to a post like this, come on, were not seeing one of the mildest winters ever and it doesn't look like it will be the "mildest ever" in the next two months. Everyone forgets that this month was nearly 4c below average until mid month, however the mild weather since then has brought this up to just slightly below average and it will probably end up an average month. Therefore, after an average to slight below average month, you can't say that this could be the mildest winter ever. January looks like starting off mild still but at least it will be drier. And your temps of 15c and higher, looks unlikely aswell as it looks like it will be mainly overcast but some places east of higher ground may see some cloud breaks to allow temperatures to be higher but for most, it will be a cloudy, mild but dry affair. After that well the SSW looks like occuring bringing the potential for a sustained period of cold. Quotes like "the mildest winter ever" are not correct and have no evidence but it does look like December will finish average with January a mild start but potentially a cold end.