Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 30/12/12

[Bobby]

looking forward to the big freeze later in the month, yes that's a ramp based purely on the strong stratospheric warming event

There is no guarantee that a SSW will result in a big freeze, it makes one more likely but doesn't mean it's going to happen. It's even possible a SSW could result in milder wetter weather if the atmosphere gets disrupted and a piece of vortex gets stuck near us. We're a long way from a cold spell at the moment although things are certainly looking up but nothing is in the bank yet, very far from it.

The models watching is going to be interesting over the next few days though, there's a lot of scatter in the ensembles so lots of solutions are possible.

The 12z ECM mean is out, day 10

As is the NAEFS 12z, day 10

End of run

NAEFS is like the 00z NAEFS showing a flattening pattern, more so than the other ensemble means, maybe a bit too much I think.

Edited December 31, 2012 by Bobby

[Airedalejoe]

Truly shocking for so called midwinter....

It was just fleeces required in Grizedale Forest today - swatting midges and swerving standing water on the roads coming back.

.....bonkers

Ian

I take it you are new to the UK and haven't a clue as to what a typical UK winter is like? Read up on any description of a UK winter and this is it, albeit it's very wet at the moment.

Reached 10.9 here today which occurs every winter many times over.

Don't know whether you are constantly on the wind up or whether you really are 'shocked' at 11C in a UK winter? You should have been in the country over the last 20 winters with hardly a frost all winter, never mind snow. This winter, so far, is nowhere near bottom of the pile. You are in for major disappointed should you remain here and keep your current expectations.

[Bonjangle]

Talk about mild uhhhh!! got ants invading my garden and kitchen and also Gnats again, just waiting now for the Daffs to appear , Have a great new year's and hope your new year is a great one , untill next year Goodbye x

[Frosty.]

There is no guarantee that a SSW will result in a big freeze,

I know that, it's new years eve and i'm trying to inject a bit of humour into the evening, the models are bad enough as it is but the second half or last third of the month could deliver something for coldies who are craving snow. Edited December 31, 2012 by Frosty039

[bluearmy]

mid month on the 12z naefs begins to sink the scandi trough sw across the uk. whether something turns up before then, who knows? i see quite a few more continental flow members for de bilt inc the control. nothing strong, judging by the wind speed but enough to bring some light snowfall beyond day 10.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Talk about mild uhhhh!! got ants invading my garden and kitchen and also Gnats again, just waiting now for the Daffs to appear , Have a great new year's and hope your new year is a great one , untill next year Goodbye x

I have a feeling any daffs won't be lasting too long should they appear any time soon!

[Iceaxecrampon]

I take it you are new to the UK and haven't a clue as to what a typical UK winter is like? Read up on any description of a UK winter and this is it, albeit it's very wet at the moment.

Reached 10.9 here today which occurs every winter many times over.

Don't know whether you are constantly on the wind up or whether you really are 'shocked' at 11C in a UK winter? You should have been in the country over the last 20 winters with hardly a frost all winter, never mind snow. This winter, so far, is nowhere near bottom of the pile. You are in for major disappointed should you remain here and keep your current expectations.

Northern UK born and bred and proud pal - well familiar

What I am NOT familiar this winter so far is the mildness compared to previous and lack of ppn (snow) to condition gullies and ice to hold it all in place (to climb). - what I look for is percentages of snow at altitude in a forecast.

Ian

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121231/12/135/h500slp.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121231/18/129/h500slp.png

Could be another interesting FI coming up. Notice how there is now no deep low spinning off the tip of Greenland. I think it may be a while yet before we begin to see any sort of consistency from any model.

[Iceaxecrampon]

I take it you are new to the UK and haven't a clue as to what a typical UK winter is like? Read up on any description of a UK winter and this is it, albeit it's very wet at the moment.

Reached 10.9 here today which occurs every winter many times over.

Don't know whether you are constantly on the wind up or whether you really are 'shocked' at 11C in a UK winter? You should have been in the country over the last 20 winters with hardly a frost all winter, never mind snow. This winter, so far, is nowhere near bottom of the pile. You are in for major disappointed should you remain here and keep your current expectations.

You should have tried some altitude over the past 20 winters? - maybe not......

If not - read below.

Edited December 31, 2012 by Iceaxecrampon

[Bobby]

Heavy rain moving in from the W this time next week

That big low in the Atlantic on the 12z is gone too at day 5-6

The 12z

18z

Edited December 31, 2012 by Bobby

[Frosty.]

If we were on the brink of a cold outbreak, there would be 1000 on here tonight, instead it's 170, tells the story of the latest models perfectly. Mild mush for the next few weeks and then possibly much colder. It's been another poor winter so far, exceptionally wet and horrible but at least the models show a more settled spell for the next few weeks.

Whatever 2013 brings, it's been a pleasure to post on here again since the summer, lets hope for a dramatic pattern change after mid jan.

Night all and happy new year

[Continental Climate]

Well , this aint a great chart http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png!!! What would you call that high? Is it a euro or is it a bartlett or a combination of the two, which is probably even worse!! Anyway awful!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

If we were on the brink of a cold outbreak, there would be 1000 on here tonight, instead it's 170, tells the story of the latest models perfectly. Mild mush for the next few weeks and then possibly much colder. It's been another poor winter so far, exceptionally wet and horrible but at least the models show a more settled spell for the next few weeks.

Whatever 2013 brings, it's been a pleasure to post on here again since the summer, lets hope for a dramatic pattern change after mid jan.

Night all and happy new year

Believe what you want Frosty. I've seen enough to sway me into thinking something resembling winter may be on the way soon.

P.S you not think that it being new years eve may have something to do with the low numbers of people on the forum?!

[Frosty.]

P.S you not think that it being new years eve may have something to do with the low numbers of people on the forum?!

Nope, if there was a freeze around the corner, there would be hundreds more on here ( new years eve or not), but there isn't and thats it from me tonight. Hoping for better models to start the new year, ever the optimist.

Edited December 31, 2012 by Frosty039

[chionomaniac]

I'm here and will not tolerate New Years Eve nastiness so you can still keep on topic thanks!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Nope, if there was a freeze around the corner, there would be hundreds more on here ( new years eve or not), but there isn't and thats it from me tonight. Hoping for better models to start the new year, ever the optimist.

Regardless of model output today,for the meantime at least I'm going to stick to my idea of increased pressure around Greenland by 14th Jan.

I'm here and will not tolerate New Years Eve nastiness so you can still keep on topic thanks!

Fancy sharing a gin n lemonade with me Chiono?

[in the vale]

Night all and happy new year

Frosty, a couple of folk have kept on going in here over the last few weeks - you, BA, Nick, John, TEITS et al despite some awful charts and some even more awful postings. Thanks guys, much appreciated by many who don't feel the need to post 5x per run, but we do read what you fellas write because you are clearly (only slightly) more nuts about the weather than the rest of us. All the best for a blocked, 19 ice-day, sub-zero-CET February! Keep it going for 2013 - the Winter we all remember fondly.

[Airedalejoe]

I'm here and will not tolerate New Years Eve nastiness so you can still keep on topic thanks!

Apologies, but there's a few wind up merchants on here that I normally ignore but a few glasses of red later....!!

[Iceaxecrampon]

Then you have wandered round with blinkers on, many winters over the last 20 years have been worse than this, pal.

This is a model thread for the UK, not a 1000m ASL gulley condition/forecast in Northern England.

Seems as if you are dishing out buns for a bunfight - experienced plenty of good conditions when it was plus 10 (and probably drizzling in Durham) - although that was in Scotland (UK)

[Tim Bland]

Greece takes all the cold in this run..Corfu is colder than Oslo! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=348&code=0&mode=1

So much for the PV being destroyed mid month. Models all over the place with FI around t+200. I expect this will continue for a few days yet before any consistency is shown

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=384&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

Edited December 31, 2012 by Tim Bland

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Not a very encouraging FI I'm afraid with what appears to be quite a strong PV (be it in pieces), to the north of us. I suppose this shows that we are not guaranteed cold straight away. At least we know that charts this far out very rarely occur as they are shown this far out even when a SSW hasn't occured.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121231/18/336/npsh500.png

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not a very encouraging FI I'm afraid with what appears to be quite a strong PV (be it in pieces), to the north of us. I suppose this shows that we are not guaranteed cold straight away. At least we know that charts this far out very rarely occur as they are shown this far out even when a SSW hasn't occured.

http://cdn.nwstatic....336/npsh500.png

Seems a tad unrealistic to me. For the PV to be eroded at the periphery as shown is not likely IMO, especially given a warming such as this...

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Seems a tad unrealistic to me. For the PV to be eroded at the periphery as shown is not likely IMO, especially given a warming such as this...

Thats what I was thinking, surely this will be near the top end of the ensembles when they are out?

[lorenzo]

[Tim Bland]

Seems a tad unrealistic to me. For the PV to be eroded at the periphery as shown is not likely IMO, especially given a warming such as this...

It can't be that unrealistic if the above is shown on the same run which has a raging PV?!